However, said the former Moscow finance advisor, when one considers the difficulty of sustaining an economy built so heavily on its military, these new personnel changes could “increase structural problems in the [Russian] economy.”
A second (and concurring) opinion: “Putin's goal is to enhance arms production effectiveness and optimally meet military needs,” said Tatiana Stanovaya of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. “Despite the surprising nature of these reshuffles (and it's not the end), the overall policy and decision-making mechanisms will remain unchanged,” she added.
Battlefield latest: Russia’s invasion troops are advancing toward the northern city of Kharkiv, the New York Times reported Sunday from the region.
According to the BBC, “The Russians just walked in. They just walked in, without any mined fields” toward Kharkiv, one Ukrainian soldier said. One Ukrainian city nearby had a prewar population of 17,000 people. Today, less than 3,000 remain, the Associated Press reports.
Expert reax: The current “Russian force is of insufficient size to seize a city the size of Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second largest city,” said former Australian general Mick Ryan. “It could however hold it at risk with increased artillery strikes,” he wrote this weekend on Substack. “This would seek to achieve one of Russia’s key aims, which is causing panic among civilians and depopulating eastern Ukraine…We will need to watch the degree to which Russia commits other ground and air forces here, compared to other axes of advance, before we have a better sense of just how perilous the Ukrainian position is in Kharkiv.” Read more, here.
The U.S. is sending Ukraine’s military more Patriot and NASAMS air defense missiles, the Pentagon announced Friday. More High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems rounds are inbound as well.
Also included: Boats, MRAPs, Bradley Fighting Vehicles, 155mm and 105mm artillery rounds, anti-radar missiles, unspecified precision-guided munitions, and more.
Ukraine is also on the verge of purchasing three HIMARS launchers for about $30 million. The Pentagon’s arms export agency announced the pending sale Friday. Details here.
How battered are Ukraine’s air defenses? Check out this New York Times interactive.
Developing: 11 House Republicans want the Pentagon to send U.S.-made drones to Ukraine, according to a letter submitted to Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin on Monday. Ten members of the House Armed Services Committee were joined by Iowa Rep. Ashley Hinson in pressuring the Pentagon to use a portion of the nearly $14 billion recently allocated for the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative to deliver unspecified “small, American-made drones in the next package of assistance” to Kyiv.
“Without these drones, Ukrainian forces cannot conduct effective battlefield operations and must rely on insecure drones from China that are increasingly difficult to procure,” the conservative lawmakers said. Read their message in full, here.
Related reading: “Inside a Ukrainian Vampire Drone Squad’s Mission to the Front Lines,” the Wall Street Journal reported Friday from Donetsk.
Canadian Defense Minister Bill Blair is dropping by the Pentagon at 11 a.m. ET for talks with SecDef Austin. Blair will also be visiting the NATO-focused Atlantic Council think tank in Washington in the afternoon Monday. That one’s slated for 2 p.m. ET. Details and livestream link, here.
ICYMI: Two leading Canadian defense experts recently published a “Strategic Outlook” for Ottawa. Perhaps unsurprisingly, the wars in Ukraine and Gaza dominated considerations for the year ahead, followed by climate change and cumulative challenges to multilateralism.
Notable: Like the U.S., Canada is also suffering from falling military recruiting and rising attrition. And those dynamics are affecting how planners schedule unit rotations and annual readiness training. Making matters more complicated, Canada’s fighter jet fleet is viewed as “not credible in a NATO context,” due partly to aging airframes and dwindling personnel, as one British study pointed out.
What to do from here? Read through 26 total recommendations for Ottawa via that April report (PDF), here.
Additional reading: