NorK preps 5th nuke test; Philippines insurgents’ ISIS ties; We need a Cyber JSOC; Navy may drop aquaflage; and a bit more.
North Korea’s fifth nuclear test is coming, its neighbors to the south say just days after a semi-successful submarine-based missile launch. “North Korea ‘completed its preparations for a fifth nuclear test and it is in a situation, in which it can carry out’ the test whenever it wants to,” Stars and Stripes reports.
The move would mark “the second effort in less than two weeks to fire a purported Musudan missile, which has the range to reach far-off U.S. military installments in Asia. U.S. officials said another launch on April 15 failed, although they didn’t confirm the type of missile.”
The big picture: “The flurry of tests and threats comes as North Korea gears up for a ruling Workers’ Party congress, which is expected to be held as early as next week. Kim Jong Un is believed to be hoping to use the first such congress in 36 years to consolidate his hold on power. He is also sending a clear message to the international community that he won’t be intimidated by harsh U.N. sanctions that were imposed after the North staged its fourth nuclear test and a long-range rocket launch earlier this year.”
U.S. intelligence chief: We don’t know if North Korea has a “boosted bomb,” Defense One Tech Editor Patrick Tucker reports on remarks from Director of National Intelligence James Clapper on Monday.
Quick review: “A boosted nuclear weapon is sometimes described as an intermediary point between a fission bomb and a much more destructive hydrogen bomb,” Tucker writes. It would also be a sign that “North Korea is well on its way to making nuclear bombs that are small enough and lightweight enough to fit on ballistic missiles,” according to one expert.
And that scenario is far more concerning in the wake of that sub-launched missile, even though it only flew for about 19 miles, when a successful test would have traveled about 10 times as far.
So, if North Korea developed a boosted bomb, how soon could they upgrade to a full hydrogen bomb? Tucker digs in, here.
The ISIS brand is helping to elevate 25 years of insurgency in the Philippines. The affiliated group Abu Sayyaf captured the world’s attention on Monday when “the head of one of its hostages, John Ridsdel, a mining executive from Canada, was left in a plastic bag on a street in the southern town of Jolo,” The New York Times reports.
A bit more on the group: “With an estimated strength of fewer than 500 fighters, the group was once linked to Al Qaeda but has more recently produced videos vowing allegiance to the Islamic State.” However, according to Australian intelligence, the group “is not cohesive, but a network of cells that carry out their own operations,” Canadian CBC news adds.
What they want: “to establish an Islamic state and Shariah law in the southern Philippines areas of Mindanao and the Sulu Archipelago.”
About its leadership: “Its original leader, Abdurajik Abubakar Janjalani, a Filipino national who studied in Libya and Saudi Arabia, was killed in a gun battle with police in 1998…Next to lead the group was Khaddafy Janjalani, a former member of the Moro National Liberation Front, an earlier separatist group, who had been trained in the Middle East. He was killed in 2006, but since then the leadership of the organization has been scattered, according to the Australians.”
And for the record: “The group claimed responsibility for the biggest act of terrorism in the history of the Philippines, planting a bomb on a passenger ferry in February 2004 and sinking the vessel, killing more than 100 people.”
The big problem right now: Sending Philippine troops into the dense jungles where the group operates, according to a spokesman for the Philippine military.
What happens next is anyone’s guess, since the government in Manila lacks the “political will” to take out the group, according to one expert who went on to say bluntly that the administration of President Benigno S. Aquino III “does not appear to have a workable military solution to eradicate the Abu Sayyaf.”
While we’re on extremists, al-Qaeda-aligned fighters in Bangladesh claim to have been behind the brutal killing of a gay rights activists and USAID employee, “Xulhaz Mannan, who previously worked as a U.S. Embassy protocol officer, and his friend, theater actor Tanay Majumder,” AP reports. The group Ansar-al Islam, the Bangladeshi branch of al-Qaida on the Indian subcontinent, took responsibility for the killings—which are stressing fault lines in national politics as well as Bangladesh’s counterterrorism efforts. More here.
In eastern Africa, Islamic State affiliates showed off their first “camp of the Caliphate in Somalia,” The Long War Journal reported Monday. “The Islamic State released a video on April 14 of the ‘Commander Sheikh Abu Numan training camp,’ which is likely located in the Puntland region in northwestern Somalia… In addition to promoting its camp, the Islamic State claimed its first attack inside Somalia. In a statement released on social media accounts today, the Islamic State claimed it detonated an IED against a ‘a Military Vehicle of the African Crusader Forces in Mogadishu,’ according to the SITE Intelligence Group.”
Fighters from the extremist group al-Shebab killed five Somali soldiers “in two hours of fierce fighting near the northwestern town of Baidoa,” a military officer told Reuters this morning.
In the world of good news: Catch this Wall Street Journal report from Sunday on the downfall of ISIS oil man, Abu Sayyaf—yes, unfortunate spelling in light of news out of the Philippines—a man from Tunisia who found himself overseeing millions and millions of ISIS petro cash across Syria before being killed by U.S. special forces last May.
From Defense One
A Cyber JSOC could help the U.S. strike harder and faster. A network-attack analogue to the manhunting Joint Special Operations Command would allow cyber warriors to decide, deconflict, and execute more effectively, say Frank Cilluffo and Sharon L. Cardash of George Washington University. Read on, here.
The U.S. needs more weapons that can be quickly and easily modified. CSIS’s Andrew Hunter argue that the U.S. military will lose its technological edge unless it figures out how to foster adaptable systems. Read what he thinks we should do about that, here.
Lawmakers want the Pentagon’s red team hackers to be more like China and Iran. It’s part of a push to make training more realistic and much more frequent, year by year. NextGov reports, here.
Here’s the latest evidence torture doesn’t keep us safe. It all comes down to the neurological consequences of stressors. Via Quartz, here.
Welcome to the Tuesday edition of The D Brief, by Ben Watson and Bradley Peniston. On this day in 1937, the Luftwaffe bombed Guernica. Send your friends this link: http://get.defenseone.com/d-brief/. And let us know your news: the-d-brief@defenseone.com.
U.S. is sending high-powered artillery to southeast Turkey in May. Too many rockets are falling inside Turkey’s borders from near ISIS-held turf in Manbij, Syria. The solution? The U.S. military’s High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS), a system that’s been active in Iraq for months now.
“To wipe out Islamic State from this region, we need to support the moderate opposition both from the air and ground,” Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said, adding, “The range of our artillery is 40 km (25 miles), while HIMARS has a range of 90 km.” More here.
The Navy may scrap its dumb, dangerous, and blue camouflage. Six years ago, the service spent $224 million to develop and field a shipboard working uniform that would melt to the skin in a fire or blend into the sea when overboard. Now the CNO, following in SECNAV’s wake, is talking about ditching the aquaflage. Congress has been pushing the military to shrink the number of different uniforms it buys, and for once, lawmakers are dead on. Navy Times reports, here.
In Iraq, “Shiite militias supported by Iran are carrying out kidnappings and murders and restricting the movement of Sunni Arab civilians,” American and Iraqi officials tell the NYTs.
Compounding the local dynamics even further, “Conditions are so dire in Falluja for the tens of thousands of civilians trapped there that dozens of people have starved to death, civilians and activists say. Food prices have skyrocketed, with a bag of flour that would cost $15 in Baghdad going for $750, Human Rights Watch has reported.” Read the rest, here.
Finally today: American millennials just became the “largest living generation in the U.S.”—but the ones who join the U.S. Army may need drill sergeants well beyond simply basic training, Army officials say. It’s part of a plan to help curb drop-outs and instill greater discipline in the force. And, if approved, it “would mark a huge reversal for the Army and mean an end to the service’s lesser-known, underrated AIT platoon sergeants, who do much of the same work as drill sergeants without any of the perks.” Read the rest from Army Times, here.