Captured Islamic State fighters are taken away from Fallujah by Iraqi Security Forces, June 1, 2016.

Captured Islamic State fighters are taken away from Fallujah by Iraqi Security Forces, June 1, 2016. AP Photo/Anmar Khalil

Inside the ISIS Enlistment Files: All Jihad is Local

I analyzed over 3,500 leaked ISIS enlistment forms. Here’s what I found.

Over the past month, hundreds were killed in attacks attributed to ISIS and its inspired supporters in the United States, France, Germany, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and elsewhere. The latest attacks, including the Bastille Day truck massacre, remind that while the group is losing territory, it is not necessarily weakening as a threat.

To make real headway in the evolving fight against ISIS, analysts and practitioners must focus on the local politics that drive individuals to go fight for ISIS – starting with the ones that make it all the way to Syria and Iraq. I analyzed ISIS enlistment files and the personal information volunteered by foreign fighters to ISIS officials in over 3,500 leaked registration forms. Here’s what I found.

Of all the information contained in this study, one narrative stretches across nearly every province with a high rate of joiners as a proportion of its local population: recruits join ISIS in regions with varied histories of resisting the influence of state institutions. Qassim (Saudi Arabia), Derna (Libya), Xinjiang (China), North Governorate/Tripoli (Lebanon), Sidi Bouzeid and the Tunisian heartland – nearly all of the “high priority” provinces identified in this study – have long been frustrated by relationships with their respective federal governments.

More than 95 percent of those who joined ISIS from China between mid-2013 and mid-2014 come from the country’s western Xinjiang province, where there are significant economic disparities between Han Chinese and local Uyghur Muslim populations, substantial state police presence, and extensive restrictions on Islamic practices such as growing beards or wearing hijabs. Residents in Derna, Libya, which had the highest rate of ISIS recruits indexed to its population of any province in the study, have long supported a local Islamic insurgency at odds with the federal state. In the late 1990s, the entire town was put under curfew for supporting the Libyan Islamic Fighting Group. In 2011, it declared an Islamic caliphate while the rest of the country was fighting Gaddafi. Today, the town is fought over by militants linked to ISIS and those supporting al Qaeda.

Yet these local challenges to governance and the other factors driving ISIS recruitment manifest differently in different countries. Tunisia and Saudi Arabia are two of the countries providing the most fighters to ISIS in the world, but the nature of the threat in these two countries is different: whereas three provinces in Saudi Arabia comprise 2/3rds of the total number of foreign fighters in the sample - Riyadh, Qassim, and Mecca - the threat of foreign fighters in Tunisia is much more diffuse. In Tunisia, the top eight provinces combined do not even reach 67 percent of the total number of Tunisian fighters. This suggests a more targeted approach to tackling the drivers of foreign fighters in Saudi Arabia and a more country-wide approach to the problem in Tunisia.

In some places where violent extremism is already a way of life – such as Derna in eastern Libya – the problem is generational. In other locations, such as Tunisia, the phenomenon of violent Islamic extremism is newer, suggesting that subnational interventions may be able to prevent the spread of the ideology before it takes root.

The need for a more nuanced understanding of this problem is urgent, because with ISIS losing territory in Syria and Iraq, reports indicate that many foreign fighters are trying to return home. The war is evolving from a battle over territory, predominantly in Syria and Iraq, to a decentralized fight against former “foreign fighters” who are committed to continuing the battle in their home countries. By learning where to look, we can start to contextualize the problem before it requires bombs and bullets to stop. In order to solve the problem as peacefully as possible in the fighters’ home countries, we need to understand what it was that drove them to leave in the first place.

CORRECTION: This article was corrected to accurately state Xinjiang province is a western province, not eastern.

Nate Rosenblatt is an analyst with nearly a decade of field-based research in the Middle East and a rising MSc student in social anthropology at Oxford University. His Twitter handle is @NateRosenblatt.  

X
This website uses cookies to enhance user experience and to analyze performance and traffic on our website. We also share information about your use of our site with our social media, advertising and analytics partners. Learn More / Do Not Sell My Personal Information
Accept Cookies
X
Cookie Preferences Cookie List

Do Not Sell My Personal Information

When you visit our website, we store cookies on your browser to collect information. The information collected might relate to you, your preferences or your device, and is mostly used to make the site work as you expect it to and to provide a more personalized web experience. However, you can choose not to allow certain types of cookies, which may impact your experience of the site and the services we are able to offer. Click on the different category headings to find out more and change our default settings according to your preference. You cannot opt-out of our First Party Strictly Necessary Cookies as they are deployed in order to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting the cookie banner and remembering your settings, to log into your account, to redirect you when you log out, etc.). For more information about the First and Third Party Cookies used please follow this link.

Allow All Cookies

Manage Consent Preferences

Strictly Necessary Cookies - Always Active

We do not allow you to opt-out of our certain cookies, as they are necessary to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting our cookie banner and remembering your privacy choices) and/or to monitor site performance. These cookies are not used in a way that constitutes a “sale” of your data under the CCPA. You can set your browser to block or alert you about these cookies, but some parts of the site will not work as intended if you do so. You can usually find these settings in the Options or Preferences menu of your browser. Visit www.allaboutcookies.org to learn more.

Sale of Personal Data, Targeting & Social Media Cookies

Under the California Consumer Privacy Act, you have the right to opt-out of the sale of your personal information to third parties. These cookies collect information for analytics and to personalize your experience with targeted ads. You may exercise your right to opt out of the sale of personal information by using this toggle switch. If you opt out we will not be able to offer you personalised ads and will not hand over your personal information to any third parties. Additionally, you may contact our legal department for further clarification about your rights as a California consumer by using this Exercise My Rights link

If you have enabled privacy controls on your browser (such as a plugin), we have to take that as a valid request to opt-out. Therefore we would not be able to track your activity through the web. This may affect our ability to personalize ads according to your preferences.

Targeting cookies may be set through our site by our advertising partners. They may be used by those companies to build a profile of your interests and show you relevant adverts on other sites. They do not store directly personal information, but are based on uniquely identifying your browser and internet device. If you do not allow these cookies, you will experience less targeted advertising.

Social media cookies are set by a range of social media services that we have added to the site to enable you to share our content with your friends and networks. They are capable of tracking your browser across other sites and building up a profile of your interests. This may impact the content and messages you see on other websites you visit. If you do not allow these cookies you may not be able to use or see these sharing tools.

If you want to opt out of all of our lead reports and lists, please submit a privacy request at our Do Not Sell page.

Save Settings
Cookie Preferences Cookie List

Cookie List

A cookie is a small piece of data (text file) that a website – when visited by a user – asks your browser to store on your device in order to remember information about you, such as your language preference or login information. Those cookies are set by us and called first-party cookies. We also use third-party cookies – which are cookies from a domain different than the domain of the website you are visiting – for our advertising and marketing efforts. More specifically, we use cookies and other tracking technologies for the following purposes:

Strictly Necessary Cookies

We do not allow you to opt-out of our certain cookies, as they are necessary to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting our cookie banner and remembering your privacy choices) and/or to monitor site performance. These cookies are not used in a way that constitutes a “sale” of your data under the CCPA. You can set your browser to block or alert you about these cookies, but some parts of the site will not work as intended if you do so. You can usually find these settings in the Options or Preferences menu of your browser. Visit www.allaboutcookies.org to learn more.

Functional Cookies

We do not allow you to opt-out of our certain cookies, as they are necessary to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting our cookie banner and remembering your privacy choices) and/or to monitor site performance. These cookies are not used in a way that constitutes a “sale” of your data under the CCPA. You can set your browser to block or alert you about these cookies, but some parts of the site will not work as intended if you do so. You can usually find these settings in the Options or Preferences menu of your browser. Visit www.allaboutcookies.org to learn more.

Performance Cookies

We do not allow you to opt-out of our certain cookies, as they are necessary to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting our cookie banner and remembering your privacy choices) and/or to monitor site performance. These cookies are not used in a way that constitutes a “sale” of your data under the CCPA. You can set your browser to block or alert you about these cookies, but some parts of the site will not work as intended if you do so. You can usually find these settings in the Options or Preferences menu of your browser. Visit www.allaboutcookies.org to learn more.

Sale of Personal Data

We also use cookies to personalize your experience on our websites, including by determining the most relevant content and advertisements to show you, and to monitor site traffic and performance, so that we may improve our websites and your experience. You may opt out of our use of such cookies (and the associated “sale” of your Personal Information) by using this toggle switch. You will still see some advertising, regardless of your selection. Because we do not track you across different devices, browsers and GEMG properties, your selection will take effect only on this browser, this device and this website.

Social Media Cookies

We also use cookies to personalize your experience on our websites, including by determining the most relevant content and advertisements to show you, and to monitor site traffic and performance, so that we may improve our websites and your experience. You may opt out of our use of such cookies (and the associated “sale” of your Personal Information) by using this toggle switch. You will still see some advertising, regardless of your selection. Because we do not track you across different devices, browsers and GEMG properties, your selection will take effect only on this browser, this device and this website.

Targeting Cookies

We also use cookies to personalize your experience on our websites, including by determining the most relevant content and advertisements to show you, and to monitor site traffic and performance, so that we may improve our websites and your experience. You may opt out of our use of such cookies (and the associated “sale” of your Personal Information) by using this toggle switch. You will still see some advertising, regardless of your selection. Because we do not track you across different devices, browsers and GEMG properties, your selection will take effect only on this browser, this device and this website.