Al Udeid Air Base - An Air Force B-52 Stratofortress aircraft deploys its rear chute after touching down at Al Udeid Air Base, Qatar, April 9, 2016.

Al Udeid Air Base - An Air Force B-52 Stratofortress aircraft deploys its rear chute after touching down at Al Udeid Air Base, Qatar, April 9, 2016. Air Force / Tech. Sgt. Nathan Lipscomb

The US Doesn’t Need a New New START

There is no reason to believe that withdrawing from the current one would improve U.S. security.

When Donald Trump assumed the presidency, there were two major nuclear arms control treaties in force between the United States and Russia. Trump withdrew from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, or INF, last year, and his administration appears unlikely to renew New START before it expires in February 2021, despite Russian willingness to extend the treaty for five years. That would be a mistake — and the collapse of the INF illustrates why. 

Although debate continues over whether President Trump’s decision to withdraw from the INF was wise, there were at least three good reasons for doing so. None of these rationales apply to New START. 

The China Factor and Limits versus Bans 

One logical reason to withdraw from the INF was that it banned the U.S. and Russia from having land-based intermediate-range missiles even as China and other countries built large stockpiles of these weapons. In fact, about 95 percent of Chinese missiles would violate the INF if China were a signatory. The INF thus put the U.S. (and Russia) at a relative disadvantage compared to China — one that could be rectified by pulling out of the agreement and developing ground-launched intermediate-range missiles, which is exactly what the U.S. is doing today

Related: If New START Dies, These Questions Will Need Answers

Related: New New START a Nonstarter: Russian Ambassador

Related: Top Nuke General: Russia Is Exploiting Gaps In Key Arms-Control Treaty

New START gives China no such advantage. First, New START is a more flexible treaty than the INF. Instead of banning an entire class of weapons, New START sets a limit on the number of strategic nuclear warheads and delivery vehicles the U.S. and Russia can deploy. Specifically, it limits the U.S. and Russia to 1,550 deployed strategic nuclear warheads and 700 deployed delivery vehicles (intercontinental ballistic missiles, submarine-launched ballistic missiles, and heavy bombers equipped to carry nuclear weapons). The “limited” number of nuclear weapons the U.S. retains under New START could still inflict unimaginable damage and is more than sufficient to threaten complete destruction of China, Russia, or any other country in the world many times over. 

More importantly, although China is not subject to New START restrictions, it has a much smaller strategic nuclear arsenal than the U.S. or Russia. While the U.S. deploys almost 1,500 strategic nuclear warheads and has thousands more in reserve, China has only about 290 total nuclear warheads. Consequently, there is no need for China to join New START in the short or medium term, as Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has called for and prominent senators such as Tom Cotton have demanded as a precondition for an extension of the treaty. Even if China doubles its nuclear stockpile in the next decade, as the U.S. government expects, it will still not come close to the limits outlined in New START. And if for some reason China decides to engage in a nuclear arms race in the next five years, the United States can always withdraw from the treaty, though our existing arsenal under New START would still be capable of deterring a Chinese attack. 

Inadvertently, pressing Beijing to join New START could actually spur a Chinese nuclear buildup. As one high-level Chinese diplomat said, “Do you want to bring your arsenal down to our level, or our arsenal up to yours?” 

Russian Compliance and On-Site Verification

Another reason the Trump Administration cited for withdrawing from the INF was that Russia had built and deployed a prohibited intermediate-range missile. The U.S. detected Russian violations by national technical means, like satellite surveillance and electronic intelligence, rather than by on-site inspections, which were phased out of the INF regime in 2001. Without on-site proof, however, Russia could more credibly deny U.S. claims. Unlike the INF, on-site inspections remain in place under New START. Specifically, New START allows the U.S. and Russia to conduct 18 short-notice, on-site inspections per year, with additional provisions for data exchange and dialogue. Since 2011, when the treaty came into force, over 300 on-site inspections and almost 20,000 notifications related to the production, deployment and movement of nuclear weapons have taken place between the United States and Russia. Inspections, exhibitions, and data-sharing under New START give the U.S. a comprehensive view of Russia’s strategic nuclear force posture. As the general in charge of America’s nuclear arsenal said, these insights are “unbelievably important for me to understand what Russia is doing.” Plus, with on-site inspections, violations of New START will be easier to detect, and claims of violations will be more credible because proof will come in the form of direct, visual evidence.

Even more importantly, whereas Russia was violating the INF, it is not violating the New START agreement. Over the life of New START, the U.S. and Russia have both met reduction targets. Today, U.S. officials publicly maintain that Russia is in compliance. In fact, Russian officials have even used exhibitions under New START to demonstrate new delivery systems, like a hypersonic glide vehicle, to U.S. inspectors. Without New START, the U.S. would therefore have less intelligence about Russia’s state-of-the-art weaponry. 

Some of the new delivery systems Russia is developing do present a legitimate challenge in the medium term. For example, the Poseidon underwater drone and the Burevestnik cruise missile are to carry nuclear warheads, yet do not technically count as “strategic” delivery vehicles subject to New START’s limits. The U.S. should certainly work with Russia to include these new kinds of weapons in future iterations of New START. However, these new systems should not prevent a five-year extension of the treaty, as they will very likely not enter service until after 2026, if at all. (A recent test of the Burevestnik killed at least seven people.) And even when some of these new technologies are deployed, the United States’ current arsenal will still be sufficient to deter the Russians from a nuclear attack. 

At the INF’s signing ceremony in 1987, Ronald Reagan praised its comprehensive verification procedures as upholding the old Russian maxim of “trust but verify.” Unfortunately, Russian cheating and the expiration of on-site inspections eroded both aspects of this formula and led to the INF’s collapse. In contrast, the fact that Russia is complying with the terms of New START, actively participates in inspections, and offered to extend New START for five years without preconditions suggests that it is committed to the agreement.

Nuclear vs. Conventional 

Finally, a third legitimate reason the U.S. withdrew from the INF was because it banned both nuclear and conventional missiles, the latter of which countries like China and Iran have been building extensively. As a result, the INF was much less flexible than New START, which only covers strategic nuclear arms. The problem with a treaty that covers nuclear and conventional weapons is that conventional weapons are much less powerful and have more routine uses in an era of heightened interstate competition. It is vital to limit the number of deployed nuclear weapons given their massive destructive capacity and the potential for accidents or unauthorized launch. But by banning conventional weapons as well, the INF put the U.S. at a disadvantage in competition with regional powers in East Asia and the Middle East, and diminished America’s ability to respond to and deter potential threats at lower rungs of the escalatory ladder.

Unlike the INF, New START is a more flexible treaty because it only limits nuclear weapons, while allowing modernization of dual-use conventional/nuclear delivery systems. This means that New START allows the U.S. to remain competitive with other great powers in terms of conventional delivery options, while providing high-level stability by limiting strategic nuclear deployments. The U.S. can keep pace with Chinese missile, submarine, and hypersonic developments under the New START framework, whereas it could not under the INF. 

Conclusion 

New START is not a perfect treaty. It does not limit non-strategic (i.e., tactical) nuclear deployments, for instance. But strategic nuclear weapons pose the most direct threat to the continental United States, and by limiting the two largest strategic arsenals on the planet, New START has helped remove redundant and extraordinarily deadly weapons from the battlefield. The destructive power the U.S. retains under New START is more than sufficient to deter any state actor or coalition of states in a future conflict. If New START is not renewed, the U.S. and Russia may be coaxed into an unnecessary arms race. A return to the huge numbers of nuclear weapons deployed during the Cold War—as many as 70,000 between the U.S. and Soviet Union in the mid-1980s—is neither necessary for deterrence nor fiscally responsible. As it is, the U.S. arsenal under New START will cost $1.2 trillion to modernize over the next 30 years.

The perfect should not be the enemy of the good. New START is a good treaty, and contributes to U.S. national security in important ways, most of all by ensuring the strategic nuclear balance between the U.S. and Russia is maintained at reasonable levels. Withdraw from the INF was justified because of a number of important flaws in the treaty. Those flaws are not present in New START. The Trump Administration, then, would be wise to recognize this fact and extend New START now, while negotiating a more comprehensive arms control treaty for the future. Nuclear arms control is currently failing with North Korea and Iran, but it need not with Russia.

X
This website uses cookies to enhance user experience and to analyze performance and traffic on our website. We also share information about your use of our site with our social media, advertising and analytics partners. Learn More / Do Not Sell My Personal Information
Accept Cookies
X
Cookie Preferences Cookie List

Do Not Sell My Personal Information

When you visit our website, we store cookies on your browser to collect information. The information collected might relate to you, your preferences or your device, and is mostly used to make the site work as you expect it to and to provide a more personalized web experience. However, you can choose not to allow certain types of cookies, which may impact your experience of the site and the services we are able to offer. Click on the different category headings to find out more and change our default settings according to your preference. You cannot opt-out of our First Party Strictly Necessary Cookies as they are deployed in order to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting the cookie banner and remembering your settings, to log into your account, to redirect you when you log out, etc.). For more information about the First and Third Party Cookies used please follow this link.

Allow All Cookies

Manage Consent Preferences

Strictly Necessary Cookies - Always Active

We do not allow you to opt-out of our certain cookies, as they are necessary to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting our cookie banner and remembering your privacy choices) and/or to monitor site performance. These cookies are not used in a way that constitutes a “sale” of your data under the CCPA. You can set your browser to block or alert you about these cookies, but some parts of the site will not work as intended if you do so. You can usually find these settings in the Options or Preferences menu of your browser. Visit www.allaboutcookies.org to learn more.

Sale of Personal Data, Targeting & Social Media Cookies

Under the California Consumer Privacy Act, you have the right to opt-out of the sale of your personal information to third parties. These cookies collect information for analytics and to personalize your experience with targeted ads. You may exercise your right to opt out of the sale of personal information by using this toggle switch. If you opt out we will not be able to offer you personalised ads and will not hand over your personal information to any third parties. Additionally, you may contact our legal department for further clarification about your rights as a California consumer by using this Exercise My Rights link

If you have enabled privacy controls on your browser (such as a plugin), we have to take that as a valid request to opt-out. Therefore we would not be able to track your activity through the web. This may affect our ability to personalize ads according to your preferences.

Targeting cookies may be set through our site by our advertising partners. They may be used by those companies to build a profile of your interests and show you relevant adverts on other sites. They do not store directly personal information, but are based on uniquely identifying your browser and internet device. If you do not allow these cookies, you will experience less targeted advertising.

Social media cookies are set by a range of social media services that we have added to the site to enable you to share our content with your friends and networks. They are capable of tracking your browser across other sites and building up a profile of your interests. This may impact the content and messages you see on other websites you visit. If you do not allow these cookies you may not be able to use or see these sharing tools.

If you want to opt out of all of our lead reports and lists, please submit a privacy request at our Do Not Sell page.

Save Settings
Cookie Preferences Cookie List

Cookie List

A cookie is a small piece of data (text file) that a website – when visited by a user – asks your browser to store on your device in order to remember information about you, such as your language preference or login information. Those cookies are set by us and called first-party cookies. We also use third-party cookies – which are cookies from a domain different than the domain of the website you are visiting – for our advertising and marketing efforts. More specifically, we use cookies and other tracking technologies for the following purposes:

Strictly Necessary Cookies

We do not allow you to opt-out of our certain cookies, as they are necessary to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting our cookie banner and remembering your privacy choices) and/or to monitor site performance. These cookies are not used in a way that constitutes a “sale” of your data under the CCPA. You can set your browser to block or alert you about these cookies, but some parts of the site will not work as intended if you do so. You can usually find these settings in the Options or Preferences menu of your browser. Visit www.allaboutcookies.org to learn more.

Functional Cookies

We do not allow you to opt-out of our certain cookies, as they are necessary to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting our cookie banner and remembering your privacy choices) and/or to monitor site performance. These cookies are not used in a way that constitutes a “sale” of your data under the CCPA. You can set your browser to block or alert you about these cookies, but some parts of the site will not work as intended if you do so. You can usually find these settings in the Options or Preferences menu of your browser. Visit www.allaboutcookies.org to learn more.

Performance Cookies

We do not allow you to opt-out of our certain cookies, as they are necessary to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting our cookie banner and remembering your privacy choices) and/or to monitor site performance. These cookies are not used in a way that constitutes a “sale” of your data under the CCPA. You can set your browser to block or alert you about these cookies, but some parts of the site will not work as intended if you do so. You can usually find these settings in the Options or Preferences menu of your browser. Visit www.allaboutcookies.org to learn more.

Sale of Personal Data

We also use cookies to personalize your experience on our websites, including by determining the most relevant content and advertisements to show you, and to monitor site traffic and performance, so that we may improve our websites and your experience. You may opt out of our use of such cookies (and the associated “sale” of your Personal Information) by using this toggle switch. You will still see some advertising, regardless of your selection. Because we do not track you across different devices, browsers and GEMG properties, your selection will take effect only on this browser, this device and this website.

Social Media Cookies

We also use cookies to personalize your experience on our websites, including by determining the most relevant content and advertisements to show you, and to monitor site traffic and performance, so that we may improve our websites and your experience. You may opt out of our use of such cookies (and the associated “sale” of your Personal Information) by using this toggle switch. You will still see some advertising, regardless of your selection. Because we do not track you across different devices, browsers and GEMG properties, your selection will take effect only on this browser, this device and this website.

Targeting Cookies

We also use cookies to personalize your experience on our websites, including by determining the most relevant content and advertisements to show you, and to monitor site traffic and performance, so that we may improve our websites and your experience. You may opt out of our use of such cookies (and the associated “sale” of your Personal Information) by using this toggle switch. You will still see some advertising, regardless of your selection. Because we do not track you across different devices, browsers and GEMG properties, your selection will take effect only on this browser, this device and this website.