Threats

A ‘breakthrough’ launch for North Korea; Mattis says faster decisions aid ISIS fight; POTUS abroad; What’s next in Syria; and just a bit more...

Ben Watson and Bradley Peniston

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By Ben Watson and Bradley Peniston

North Korea’s latest missile test shows all the signs of being among the most concerning yet. Pyongyang released some 40 images of a Pukkuksong medium-range ballistic missile launch on Sunday, the second test of its kind this year—and the North’s third consecutive successful flight test, The Diplomat’s Ankit Panda and Shea Cotton of the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies reported this weekend.

The need-to-knows: “On Sunday afternoon, North Korea launched a Pukkuksong-2 solid fuel, medium-range ballistic missile (MRBM) from Pukchang county in South Pyongan province. The missile landed in the Sea of Japan, flying to a range of 500 kilometers and exhibiting an apogee of 560 kilometers,” The Diplomat reported. “Sunday’s test marks the 11th North Korean ballistic missile launch this year and marks the second in just a week — North Korea test-fired the Hwasong-12 intermediate-range ballistic missile last Sunday. The launch marks the 8th overall flight test of the Pukkuksong family of missiles (the program began with the Pukkuksong-1 submarine-launched ballistic missile).”

North Korea views the launch as so successful, it has reportedly ordered the Pukkuksong-2 into mass production, Reuters reports this morning.

The consequences for U.S. military planners: “the Pukkuksong-2 is a significant development for North Korea because it would allow it disperse ready-to-fire solid-fuel missiles on launchers that can fire from nearly anywhere all over the country,” The Diplomat adds. “As a result, Pyongyang’s nuclear forces would enjoy greater survivability against the United States and South Korea, who may have otherwise been more tempted to undertake a preemptive attack.” Read the rest, here.

What’s more, North Korea’s last launch, the one on May 14? That one “successfully re-entered the Earth's atmosphere, according to analysts,” The Telegraph reported this weekend, calling it “a significant breakthrough for Pyongyang's missile programme.”

How that conclusion was reached: “The missile took a steep parabolic route that tested its ability to survive re-entry into the atmosphere, with North Korean state media reporting that the missile—capable of carrying a ‘large-size, heavy nuclear warhead’ to a target on the US mainland - had come through ‘the worst re-entry situation’ and struck its intended target. That claim was confirmed by South Korean government sources, who told the JoongAng Daily that analysis of data communication from North Korea's missile control centre confirmed the warhead survived the 5,000 degrees Celsius (9,032 Fahrenheit) and extreme vibration it experienced on re-entry.” A bit more on all that, here.

How to get smart on the North Korean arsenal: By reading this. “The amount of material never gets any smaller, and you’ve nearly got to be an expert in your own right to judge what’s what,” says Joshua Pollack of the Nonproliferation Review, curating the best-of links over on @armscontrolwonk Jeffrey Lewis’s blog. If you have time for just one link, Pollack says, make it this from the Nuclear Threat Initiative. Got a bit more time? Dive into the North’s missile program, its nuclear efforts, its nuclear military strategy, what’s known about its chem/bio weapons, and more, all right here.

From Defense One

New Tactics, Quicker Decisions Are Helping to 'Annihilate' ISIS, Pentagon Says // Kevin Baron and Marcus Weisgerber: The military's top leaders credit Trump for delegating authority and directing efforts to surround ISIS fighters.

What Syrian-Peace Negotiators in Geneva Must Learn from Russia // Jesse Marks and James Siebens: Unless this latest round acknowledges battlefield reality, the UN-sponsored talks will continue their slide into irrelevance.

Welcome to Monday’s edition of The D Brief by Ben Watson and Bradley Peniston. #OTD1863: U.S. government creates a bureau to recruit African-Americans for the Civil War. Got tips? Email us at the-d-brief@defenseone.com. (And if you’re reading this on our website, consider subscribing. It’s free.)

POTUS abroad. Marine One landed in a Jerusalem supermarket parking lot a short while ago, bringing President Donald Trump to his first state visit to Israel. On the docket for today: A meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Tel Aviv, before hitting up Palestinian President Mahmud Abbas sometime Tuesday.

Over the weekend, in brief:

What’s next: After Tuesday’s meeting with Abbas, POTUS and company ship out to Rome for a meeting with the Pope. After that there’s a NATO-and-EU meeting in Brussels that extends through Thursday. And his final leg brings him to Sicily for a G7 summit which concludes on Saturday.

ICYMI: The Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen—whom Saudi Arabia is at war with, backed by the U.S.—launched a Borkan-2 ballistic missile late Friday from Yemen towards Riyadh. The missile was reportedly shot down some 200 km west of Riyadh. Video of Friday’s launch, here.

After Raqqa. The U.S. and Russia are trying to head off possible confrontation in ISIS-held Deir ez-Zour, eastern Syria, AP reported late last week. “The Pentagon refers to this area as the Middle Euphrates River Valley. IS leaders and operatives have gravitated there in apparent anticipation of losing Mosul and Raqqa.”

The idea: “American forces would support a group of Syrian Arab and Kurdish fighters known as the Syrian Democratic Forces driving southeast along the Euphrates from Raqqa toward Deir el-Zour, said the officials, who weren’t authorized to speak publicly on the military details and demanded anonymity. At the same time, Iraqi government forces, also supported by U.S. advisers and airpower, would advance toward al-Qaim. A separate U.S.-backed group of Syrian rebels would push up from the south to block IS escape routes, the U.S. officials said.”

The problem at this stage: There is a Syrian military base there, which could help explain "the Syrian government’s announcement this month of a new military push aimed at reasserting its authority in east, including in Deir el-Zour and the remote desert area near Syria’s borders with Jordan and Iraq." More here.

Spotted in West Mosul: A car bomb hundreds of feet in the air. It apparently made its high-altitude flight after a controlled detonation of the vehicle by Iraqi security forces. Video, here.

Also spotted in West Mosul: Iraqi security forces taking a recovered ISIS car bomb for a spin with a soldier on the hood. Those shenanigans, here.

Bad news for Iraq: Iraqi Federal Police and Rapid Response Units are in hot water over alleged abuses, according to a photographer’s account in the German paper, Der Spiegel, published this week. (Note: Link is in German; no English translations are available yet.) The photos are harrowing.

And bad news for Libyan forces supported by the UN-backed government in Tripoli: “Forces aligned with the United Nations-backed Government of National Accord (GNA) attacked a military base and allegedly executed at least 30 captured soldiers,” Human Rights Watch announced Sunday, reminding its audience “The summary execution of persons who have been captured or who have surrendered constitutes a war crime.”

What allegedly happened: “A hospital official and an eyewitness told Human Rights Watch that soldiers from the 13th Battalion aligned with the GNA Defense Ministry attacked the base in Brak El-Shati, in southern Libya, on May 18, 2017, and executed troops from the 12th Battalion of the Libyan National Army (LNA).”

Backing up their claims, HRW says it “reviewed at least 80 photographs and several videos that seemed to show the May 18 attack; they appeared to corroborate witness statements about the incident. The photographs showed mainly dead men, some in uniform, many with what appears to be a single gunshot wound to the front of the head.” More details, here.  

Apropos of nothing: Venezuela is sitting on about 5,000 Russian-made surface-to-air SA-24 MANPADs, Reuters reports this morning, calling it “the largest known stockpile in Latin America and a source of concern for U.S. officials amid the country's mounting turmoil.” Story, here.

Lastly today: Meet Tampa, Florida, Mayor Bob “flag your constituents” Buckhorn, who is now in a bit of trouble for a boat ride he took last year. The boat ride was part of a special-operations demonstration where the SOF guys “rescued” the good mayor from mock captors. His troubles today stem less from what he did while on that boat—“fired blanks from a .50-caliber machine gun as a crowd watched,” the Washington Post reports—than his later claims to have pointed his weapon at reporters. “I’ve never seen grown men cry like little girls, for when that gun goes off those media folks just hit the deck like no one’s business,” said Buckhorn, according to an account last week in the Tampa Bay Times. “It’s great payback. I love it.” Read on, along with a roundup of other public officials’ recent over-the-top interactions with press,  here. 

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