Trump floats early Syria exit; US troops defend a Manbij fort; Foal Eagle kicks off, smaller and late; How lasers might detect the next London-style poisoning; And a bit more.

President Trump’s warning shot on Syria — floating the exit of U.S. troops there “like, very soon” — has been on his mind for weeks, the Associated Press reported Friday, a day after his remarks reportedly blindsided the Pentagon, State Department and the U.S. military’s Kurdish allies in Syria.

POTUS began wanting to exit Syria as far back as mid-February, at the very moment victory could be declared in the war against ISIS, AP reports citing anonymous U.S. officials. Quietly, “Alarm bells went off at the State Department and the Pentagon, where officials have been planning for a gradual, methodical shift from a military-led operation to a diplomatic mission to start rebuilding basic infrastructure like roads and sewers in the war-wracked country.”

Further signaling Trump’s intent, the WH decided to put on hold a nearly $200 million stabilization funding for Syria, as the Wall Street Journal reported Friday afternoon. AP writes that that money, which was “to have been spent by the State Department for infrastructure projects like power, water and roads,” announced by outgoing State Secretary Rex Tillerson in March.

On the go? NPR’s Tom Bowman has the story in just under three-and-a-half minutes, here.

The State Department is taking it in stride: “The United States is working everyday on the ground and with the international community to help stabilize those areas liberated from ISIS and identify ways to move forward with reconstruction once there has been a peaceful political transition away from (Syrian President Bashar) Assad,” the department said Friday in a statement to the media.  

And the U.S. military? “The mission of the Department of Defense to defeat ISIS has not changed,” Maj. Adrian Rankine-Galloway told AP.

So when can victory be declared in the war against ISIS? The group has lost an estimated 95 percent of the land it once held across Iraq and Syria, AP writes. But, “the remaining five percent is becoming increasingly difficult to clear and could take many months,” according to U.S. officials. More, here.

One more consideration about “victory” vs ISIS: Remaining ISIS fighters and devotees could very well go “underground,” only to re-emerge differently, and perhaps much more viciously the next time. That, anyway, is the forecast from Daniele Raineri, MENA correspondent for Italy’s Il Foglio newspaper.

Meanwhile in deeply contested northern Syria, Arabic Al-Aan TV’s Jenan Moussa traveled to Manbij where the U.S. military is effectively holding down a fort along with its Kurdish partners in the Syrian Democratic Forces — the ones who have swept ISIS out of Raqqa and much of the east. In Manbij, Moussa says she “saw how U.S. soldiers for first time established [a] fixed position near [the] front, opposite Turkey-backed forces [threatening to advance on Manbij].”

FWIW, spotted in Turkey this weekend: President Erdogan in full military regalia.

On full display in Manbij: A “U.S. flag on top of roof for Turks to see,” Moussa says, reporting also that she saw American troops — but they turned down a request to chat.

Reminder about Manbij: It is a place where “many local, regional and world powers are nestled in one small place.”

Those forces break down as follows:  

• U.S. and the SDF (as well as allies like France and the UK); and they are fighting both
• Turkey and its allied Syrian rebels;
• As well as the Syrian military, backed by Russia and Iran.

Powder keg: In a village near Manbij, called Arima, Moussa reports all three groups of forces are within 2 kms of each other. Read her dispatch in full, here.

Names of the fallen: U.S. Army Master Sgt. Jonathan Dunbar and British Sgt. Matt Tonroe both died late last week near Manbij when an IED hit their vehicle. For Britain, it was the first military death since they joined the war on ISIS in mid-2014. The BBC has a bit more about Tonroe, here. And Texas’ KXAN has more on Dunbar, here.  

From Defense One

Lasers Will Help Detect Chemical Attacks Like London’s  // Patrick Tucker: A new technique can detect trace elements of dangerous chemicals in extremely small doses, a breakthrough of relevance to the horror show playing out in Salisbury, U.K.

AI: The Pros, Cons, and What To Really Fear // Ben Watson: Dive into what's known so far about the new AI arms race — with a particular eye on U.S. and Chinese efforts — in a new special report.

Shulkin's Firing Leaves $16B Effort to Merge DoD/VA Health Records Up In The Air // Frank Konkel: Secretary Shulkin championed a contract with Cerner to develop a new health records system for Veterans Affairs, but the deal seems precarious now.

Welcome to this Monday edition of The D Brief by Ben Watson and Bradley Peniston. Email us. And if you find this useful, consider forwarding it to a friend or colleague. They can subscribe here for free. OTD1917: President Wilson asks Congress for a declaration of war against Germany.

Dozens are feared dead in northern Afghanistan this morning as conflicting reports emerge from an airstrike in Kunduz province, Khaama and Tolo News report.  
Location: Dasht-e-Archi, Kunduz.
Targeted, according to a provincial police spox: a "high-ranking member of [the Taliban's Pakistan-based] Quetta Shura," allegedly at the targeted madrassa at the time of the strike, given as “about 11 a.m.” local time.
About that district: Dasht-e-Archi has 57 schools and madrassas, “of which only 14 schools are in areas under government control, while the rest are in areas under Taliban control,” an Afghan official told Tolo.
Involved: An Afghan Air Force A-29 Super Tucano, which reportedly began dropping laser-guided bombs in the western Farah province just a few short days ago.
Initial damage assessment: “more than 25 casualties officially reported but residents say over 200 people were gathered” at the madrassa when the bombs fell, Tolo News reports.  
FWIW: See where Dasht-e-Archi fits into the Taliban’s broader reach across Afghanistan (it’s officially tagged as “contested”) in this running territorial tracker from analysts at the Long War Journal, here.
Also: the Taliban have gone high-tech. That is eroding long-held advantages for U.S. troops, like a monopoly on night vision, and is forcing U.S. commanders to think twice about distributing advanced gear to Afghan security forces. NYT has more, here.

In Africa this weekend, Shabab carried out a complex attack on an African Union base in Somalia, with conflicting numbers emerging from both sides, Reuters reported Sunday.
Two car bombs detonated near the gates of a base about 75 miles southwest of Mogadishu at 9 a.m. in the morning. “Then a large number of al Shabaab fighters began firing from under the trees ... it was a hellish battle,” Somali army major Farah Osman told Reuters. Four Ugandan troops were killed in the attack, according to their military, which said 22 Shabab fighters died in the failed attack at Bulamarer, as well as two other attacks at other bases nearby. More here.

Boko Haram is believed to be behind an attack that killed 15 and wounded 68 in the northwest of the country, Reuters reports this morning, calling it “the biggest strike since the government said it was in talks with the Islamist group.”

U.S., South Korea begin annual joint exercise — with a twist. Delayed about a month to calm relations with North Korea, the giant Foal Eagle wargame launched on Sunday. But the exercise will run for just two weeks, about half the usual duration, and although it will involve some 11,500 American and 290,000 South Korean troops, it will not feature a U.S. aircraft carrier and various other planned weapons, France24 reports.
Also missing: the usual bombastic denunciations from the North. (Instead, 11 South Korean pop acts gave a concert in Pyongyang, the first such in more than a decade. Here’s a quick video; the audience was clearly unpredisposed to shake their groove thang.) Read more, here.
At the upcoming summit, the U.S. will seek “the complete, verifiable and irreversible denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula. It is necessary and nonnegotiable,” the acting U.S. ambassador to South Korea told a forum in Seoul on Monday. Yonhap News: “Speculation has arisen that South Korea and the U.S. might not be on the same page in approaching the denuclearization of North Korea, as Seoul officials reportedly prefer a ‘step-by-step’ approach in ridding the North of its nuclear weapons but Washington apparently pursues the so-called Libya-style method where the North should give up its nuclear program before discussing any possible concessions.” Marc Knapper, the acting ambassador, denied that the allies were not aligned. Read on, here.

Who’s counting? Russia’s military says that for the second time, it has successfully tested its most advanced nuclear-capable ICBM. ABC News has that, here.

Back stateside, “As many as 11,800 military families face deportation issues,” Military Times’ Tara Copp reported Sunday, citing new stats from American Families United, “a non-profit immigration advocacy group.”
The rub: “While the active duty members themselves are protected — because in order to enlist a service member has to show proof that they are in the country legally — their undocumented spouses are not.” Worth the click, here.

And now for something completely different: Graphics and history collide in a pretty cool way in this “astonishingly detailed” map of medieval trade routes, posted to the web back in July. (Worth quite a few clicks, in our opinion.)