WH exploring alternatives to NK summit; Europe’s AI needs; China’s nuke bombers; EPA suppresses on-base toxin report; and just a bit more...
South Korea’s President Moon is in Washington today and tomorrow as the White House is reportedly considering alternatives to a Trump-Kim summit in June.
Why alternatives? “On Thursday and Friday,” The New York Times reported this weekend, “Mr. Trump peppered aides with questions about the wisdom of proceeding, and on Saturday night he called President Moon Jae-in of South Korea to ask why the North’s public statement seemed to contradict the private assurances that Mr. Moon had conveyed after he met Kim Jong-un, the 35-year-old dictator of the North, at the Demilitarized Zone in late April.
But Trump isn’t backing down… yet. The Times notes that so far, “there is no indication that the president is considering pulling out of the North Korea talks.”
A window into Trump’s thinking: “The South has been advocating a more traditional confidence-building approach, in which concessions by the North result in a gradual lifting of sanctions. But Mr. Trump has said he will not repeat that technique, because it led to failure by his four immediate predecessors.”
What history has taught us: “[M]ost intelligence analyses in recent years have cast doubt that [Kim Jong-un], or the North Korean elite, would be willing to give up the security provided by nuclear arms.” More from the Times, here.
Pyongyang wasting little time: "North Korea is demanding that each foreign reporter pay $10,000 for a visa to cover the planned dismantlement of a nuclear test site in Punggye-ri," Korea Times reports this morning.
Logistics: “North Korea has demanded that media representatives arrive at its Beijing embassy by Tuesday 11 a.m. Those who pay for a visa will travel to Wonsan on a 70-seat North Korean charter flight and then to the test site by bus.” Read on, here.
From that spectacle, the Associated Press takes “A look at what's hype and what's worth paying attention to” in a report recommending we “Expect good imagery. But not much else.” Their last word: “[C]aution is warranted. None of this is necessarily about denuclearization.”
ICYMI, South Korea’s so-called “decapitation unit,” Seoul had planned to buy MH-47 special operations helicopters, but now that's "put on hold," South Korean officials told Defense News.
Said a South Korean army spokesman: “We can’t say the MH-47 purchase plan is canceled. It’s more precise to say the plan is put on hold considering the peace mood on the peninsula... the acquisition of special operation helicopters is expected to be carried out somehow, but not now.” More here.
From Defense One
What the North Koreans Told Me About Their Plans // Joel S. Wit: I was one of a handful of former officials to meet with them when they were just developing their current strategy. Those talks offer the best information we have about how to achieve denuclearization.
Is Telegram Secure? French Terror Arrest Raises New Questions About Messaging App // Patrick Tucker: It's not clear that French police cracked the app's encryption. But ISIS and other user groups are becoming wary.
As AI Begins to Reshape Defense, Here's How Europe Can Keep Up // Wendy R. Anderson and Jim Townsend: It's clear that the continent's political and military leaders are wrestling with the implications of artificial intelligence. But debate needs to translate into action, and quickly.
Defense One Radio, Episode 4: Trump vs. Kim; Military algorithms; ISIS' new war narratives; USAF's next plane and more. // Defense One Staff: Welcome to the fourth episode of our podcast about the news, strategy, tech, and business trends defining the future of national security.
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This week: Defense One’s Kevin Baron and Patrick Tucker are at SOFIC (Special Operations Forces Industry Conference), the big special ops conference in Tampa, hunting down the latest SOF mil tech and talking to folks about what their new missions and gear says about the trends and priorities of the Trump administration. Stay tuned.
SecState Pompeo will pitch his “Plan B” for Iran later today, CNN reports in a preview. The idea is to “assemble a global coalition to pressure Iran into negotiations on ‘a new security architecture’ that goes beyond its nuclear program.”
Said Brian Hook, the State Department's director of policy planning, to reporters on Friday: "We need a new framework that's going to address the totality of Iran's threats. This involves a range of things around its nuclear program - missiles, proliferating missiles and missile technology, its support for terrorists, and its aggressive and violent activities that fuel civil wars in Syria and Yemen." There are quite a few skeptics of this plan, citing history and precedent, and you can read a bit more about why, here.
EU’s alternative pitch: The European Union is trying “to continue oil and gas purchases to keep Iran’s economy afloat, but do so by making payments outside of the U.S.-dominated global financial system and shielding European firms from U.S. sanctions,” The Wall Street Journal reported this weekend.
Some of what's in the works: "[U]pdating a never-used 1996 law, enacted against U.S. sanctions against Cuba, Iran and Libya, known as the blocking statute. The measure seeks to ban European companies from complying with extraterritorial U.S. sanctions, allows firms to collect damages arising from American restrictions and shields them from adverse foreign-court rulings."
One big worry: “Europe’s ability to sidestep U.S. sanctions are limited and untested.” Read on (paywall alert), here.
WH extends counter-ISIS envoy Brett McGurk’s job through December, the Associated Press reported Sunday from developments at Mike Pompeo’s State Department.
The gist: “A plan initiated by Rex Tillerson before he was fired as secretary of state in March would have folded the office of the special envoy to the global coalition into the department’s counterterrorism bureau as early as spring,” AP writes, citing U.S. officials.
But then “Tillerson’s successor, Mike Pompeo, canceled the plan this month, and the office will stay an independent entity until at least December, when there will be a new review.”
However, “A $200-million pledge that Tillerson made in February for stabilization programs in Syria remains on hold on Trump’s orders and is under review,” AP reports.
In addition — or subtraction, in a way — “The Trump administration has withdrawn all assistance from Northwest Syria,” CBS News reported Friday following “President Trump's request to review all U.S. assistance to Syria.”
Cuts involve efforts at “countering violent extremism, supporting independent society and independent media, strengthening education, and advocating for community policing. The region will become the first area of the country where, other than humanitarian aid, the U.S. is officially disengaging.”
Meanwhile in Damascus, the Syrian army this morning is trying to push ISIS out of its “last pocket” in the capital, Reuters reports.
Location: “al-Hajar al-Aswad district and the adjoining Palestinian refugee camp of Yarmouk, the largest in Syria.” A bit more, here.
Nuclear watch in the South China Sea. “China has landed long-range bombers, including the nuclear-capable H-6K, on [what’s believed to be Woody Island] in the South China Sea for the first time,” CNN reported on Sunday.
About the aircraft: “The H-6K is a considerable upgrade from the fighter jets believed to have previously landed on the islands. China's top-of-the-line bomber is capable of reaching a nearly 1,900-nautical-mile (3,500-kilometer) radius. Flying the twin-engine bombers out of Woody Island would mean the entirety of Southeast Asia is within combat flight range, experts say.”
Recent background: “This comes just weeks after reports that the Chinese military installed radar jamming equipment and deployed their first missiles in their Spratly holdings. And in mid-April, China conducted its largest-ever naval parade in the South China Sea, which came after the aircraft carrier Liaoning led a flotilla of 48 naval vessels plus 76 fighter jets in two-days of combat drills.”
Pentagon reax: "[T]he United States remains committed to a free and open Indo-Pacific," Pentagon spokesman Lt. Col. Christopher Logan told CNN, adding, "China's continued militarization of disputed features in the South China Sea only serves to raise tensions and destabilize the region." More here.
China’s reax: “We hope that relevant parties do not read too much into this,” foreign ministry spokesman Lu Kang said.
How Business Insider framed the development: “Beijing lands nuclear bombers in the South China Sea in a clear sign that it's pushed out the US without firing a shot.”
The Heritage Foundation’s Jeff Smith took issue with that one, saying, “I disagree China has ‘pushed’ the U.S. out of the South China Sea. A) It was never ours. B) We operate there the same now as we did 5, 10, 20 years ago. And we must continue to hold the line at freedom of navigation.”
How the Philippines responded to China’s H-6Ks: Very cautiously, AP reports from Manila. "We express our serious concerns anew on its impact on constructive efforts to maintain peace and stability in the region," presidential spokesman Harry Roque said Sunday.
Worth noting: “[T]he foreign ministry stopped short of condemning China’s action,” Reuters adds.
Pacific Fleet’s new commander, speaking Thursday: “A great-power competition has reemerged as the central challenge to security and prosperity against our nation,” says Adm. John Aquilino. “Nowhere are the stakes of that great power competition higher than here in the Indo-Pacific region.” Other bits from the speech, via Navy Times, here.
Two cancer-causing chemicals that pollute many U.S. military bases are more hazardous than previously thought. In March, the Pentagon responded to lawmakers’ demands for a report on efforts to clean bases of perfluorooctane sulfonate and perfluorooctanoic acid, two carcinogens used in fighting military-aircraft fires. “The danger of these chemicals is now widely understood, prompting the Pentagon study. PFOA and PFOS exposure has been tied to multiple types of cancers, developmental delays in fetuses and infants, and more,” wrote Military Times’ Tara Copp.
But it’s worse, according to a new study by Health and Human Services: Reports Politico: the “study would show that the chemicals endanger human health at a far lower level than EPA has previously called safe.”
Want to read that study? The Trump administration says you can’t. “Scott Pruitt’s EPA and the White House sought to block publication of a federal health study on a nationwide water-contamination crisis, after one Trump administration aide warned it would cause a "public relations nightmare," newly disclosed emails reveal.” Read on, here.
And finally today: Down in the Sandhills of North Carolina, it’s “All-American Week” with the 82nd Airborne Division, whose Twitter feed joked this morning that paratroopers have been standing in formation since Saturday.
See 15,000-plus Division troops in just 82 seconds, via the Fayetteville Observer’s Drew Brooks. And follow along all week at the hashtag, #AAWXXIX.