Securing Air Dominance: Strategic Fighter Development in the Indo-Pacific

With strategic rivals perched on both India's northeastern and northwestern borders in China and Pakistan, Indian defense planners are aware of the need to maintain a formidable air- and land-based military component. As the combat potential of China's fighter fleet increases both qualitatively and quantitatively, India has been spurred to undertake the broadest and deepest modernization of the Indian Air Force (IAF) in 30 years.

The IAF's sanctioned number of combat squadrons is set at 42. But because of India's notoriously byzantine and ineffective procurement process, the official standing figure is 31 operational squadrons, with just 29 of these considered serviceable and over 25 percent of the total consisting of badly aging French-British Jaguars designed in the 1960s, as well as Soviet-designed MiG-21s and MiG-29s.

Meanwhile, by 2032, the requirement is for the IAF to field 810 fighters (including 154 fifth-generation jet fighters) in 42-45 squadrons to meet a prospective "collusive threat" two-front war with China and Pakistan.

​Currently, the IAF is nowhere close to meeting its strategic goals and is instead finding itself under the microscope after shortcomings were exposed during its brief combat operations in May against Pakistan.

Despite the yawning gap between its long-term goals and current realities, the IAF's leadership remains determined to acquire more indigenous platforms to meet Prime Minister Narendra Modi's call for "Atmanirbhar Bharat," or "Self-Sufficient India," and help support and grow India's ambition for an advanced military aerospace industrial sector.

Plans now call for the service to acquire 20 squadrons (18 fighters apiece) of three domestically produced types: The Tejas (Light Combat Aircraft) Mk 1A, the Tejas Mk 2, and the Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA).

While the initial Tejas Mk 1 variant was first brought into service in 2016 and achieved full operational capability in 2019, the program itself followed a long and winding path dating back to the 1980s, with the Mk 1A variant yet to have undertaken pre-handover operational trials despite local aerospace prime Hindustan Aeronautics Limited calling for flight-testing of the model to be completed by 2022.

The fourth-generation Tejas Light Combat Aircraft program, in other words, represents a cautionary tale for India's indigenous jet fighter ambitions.

Yet despite the extremely long horizon from project launching to design and initial production for the Tejas, Indian government officials remain determined to push ahead with a second program, this one involving the AMCA.

The AMCA was conceived in 2006 as a single-seat, multirole, twin-engine fighter that would provide the Indian Air Force with a fit between its new-generation Dassault Rafale and the Tejas light fighter. Design work began in 2009. The configurations and feasibility study wrapped up by February 2017.

The Preliminary Design Review was completed in November 2022 and the design frozen, while the Critical Design Review (begun in 2021) was concluded in December 2023.

With a design in hand, India unveiled a full-scale demonstrator model in early 2025. American-designed General Electric F414 INS-6 turbofans will power initial AMCA fighters. However, later production blocks could integrate co-produced European power plants by France's Safran or U.K.-based Rolls-Royce.

Departing from the state-run approach used with the Tejas, India plans to tap internal private companies and the public sector to compete for the AMCA. The effort aims to strengthen domestic capabilities and reduce reliance on outside suppliers.

Despite the industrial partnership approach and approval of $1.9 billion in dedicated funding for the fifth-generation program, timeline delays in previous aircraft projects will shadow ambitious plans to introduce AMCA fighters into IAF service within the next decade.

Future of Asia-Pacific Airpower

With tensions simmering in the East and South China seas and along India's borders with China and Pakistan, defense investment in the Asia-Pacific – especially in air superiority and airspace security – will remain strong. Regional militaries, wary of potential peer conflicts, aim to achieve qualitative parity if not quantitative advantage. As a result, demand remains high for combat aircraft, transport and surveillance platforms, and early warning and reconnaissance systems.

Driven in part by China's sweeping military modernization, countries within its perceived threat envelope are doubling down on quality over quantity. Australia, India, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan are pursuing advanced aerospace capabilities through indigenous development or off-the-shelf procurement. Programs such as Japan's GCAP, India's Tejas and AMCA, South Korea's KF-21 Boramae, and Taiwan's T-5 Brave Eagle reflect this dual objective: meeting defense needs while advancing domestic aerospace industries.

At the same time, rising costs and risks – particularly the potential loss of elite pilots during missions in contested airspace – are pushing countries to invest in uncrewed aerial systems (UAS). These range from expendable one-way drones to high-end reusable platforms capable of operating autonomously or alongside manned fighters.

Japan is already phasing out crewed assets like the AH-1, AH-64, and OH-1 helicopters in favor of UAS, expanding their role in maritime surveillance and beyond. Australia is developing its own unmanned combat aerial vehicle program to bolster the Royal Australian Air Force's combat capabilities – whether integrated with manned aircraft or operating independently.

As anti-access/area-denial environments grow more sophisticated, expect more countries to pivot toward unmanned solutions that offer reduced costs and lower operational risks compared with traditional crewed platforms.