Balancing the scales of conflict.

In the South China Sea, a People’s Liberation Army Navy ship titled “Guilin” chases down a boat belonging to the Philippine Coast Guard. On the streets of Kuala Lumpur, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) wages economic warfare. Behind each action is an emerging “axis of autocracy,” according to U.S. Indo-Pacific Command Commander Admiral Samuel Paparo, pushing undemocratic principles and authoritarian demands. Countering this aggression will require a “whole of community response” through increased investments in future-ready capabilities. 

The Pentagon, its industrial base and allies must increase defense spending on future-ready capabilities if we are to secure the free movement of people, goods, and ideas in the region.

Potential conflict is often signaled by non-traditional means of engagement. The PRC could use misinformation and disinformation to provoke discord. Nation-states could use artificial intelligence (AI) and advanced cyber tradecraft to attack critical infrastructure. Regardless of the scenario, traditional capabilities must evolve to meet mission needs.

“Addressing the tyranny of distance in addition to accelerating tech innovation is key to overcoming the PRC,” said Heather Fortuna Bush, senior vice president at Booz Allen. 

Accelerating deterrence and innovation: Lessons from Ukraine 

Before joining the Indo-Pacific team, Fortuna Bush partnered with leaders in the European area of responsibility (AOR) to accelerate deterrence capabilities in Ukraine. Her lessons from the region, she says, can help inform the Pentagon’s approach in the Indo-Pacific. 

“Ukraine changed the face of warfare. It became a testing ground for integrated systems that combine commercial tech, and we saw innovation happening at the edge, where the warfighter is repurposing a drone or a piece of technology to create an additional advantage,” Fortuna Bush said. 

Drones are cheap, cost-effective and, for the PRC, easily accessible because of strategic partnerships with Russia. Chinese companies like Damoda leverage this accessibility to demonstrate advanced swarming capabilities, as tens of thousands of drones lit up the skies over Shenzhen in a recent demonstration.

Protecting against this threat will require a foothold in critical minerals. Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) and their terrestrial counterparts rely on nickel, copper, aluminum and titanium. With the PRC controlling close to 90 percent of the global commercial drone market, the time to divest is now. 

Thankfully, the United States isn’t alone. In the region, partners like Taiwan and India are reviewing their dependence on Chinese supply chains. It’s this informed collaboration that will be key to winning in conflict, explained Booz Allen’s Vice President, Indo-Pacific CTO, Ed Barnabas. 

“We’ve seen how drones shaped the conflict in Ukraine, but any lessons learned need to be tailored to the Indo-Pacific, and that means you have to account for the vast maritime domain that exists within the AOR and the multitude of regional dynamics at play,” he explained. 

Strategic partnerships reinforce readiness.

The Russia-Ukraine war took analysts by surprise. In the early days of the conflict, think tanks “confidently predicted that Russia would defeat its smaller neighbor within weeks. American military leaders believed this consensus to the point that the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Mark Milley, told members of Congress that Kyiv could fall within 72 hours of a Russian attack.” 

Three years later, Ukraine still stands. 

Ukrainian forces resisted Russian advances through a hyper-focus on interoperability, adaptability and speed. If weapons weren’t suited to the mission, forward-deployed units would reconfigure and adjust. Ukraine didn’t have the luxury of waiting 18 months for appropriations, and neither will Taiwan in a potential conflict with the PRC. 

“You can feel the heightened tempo in the region,” said Barnabas. “When you think about technical delivery, it’s always about speed. But now, more than ever, it’s about speed and modernizing the way you provide solutions. Everything has to be in real-time.” 

At Booz Allen, building modern, mission-ready systems starts with assessing technical adoption, readiness, and capabilities. If there’s a gap in capabilities, Barnabas explained they work with partners to bring in those capabilities. 

“The Indo-Pacific requires an agile mindset in order to provide the solutions they need today, and when we talk to our customers, it’s something they need now, not in 18 months,” Barnabas explained. 

In Booz Allen’s Honolulu Innovation Center (HIC), Barnabas and Fortuna Bush work alongside customers to deliver “just in time” solutions that address AI, edge computing, and cyber needs. This approach to program delivery, coupled with Booz Allen’s larger lab infrastructure across the company, allows for team members to provide prototypes at mission speeds. Vellox Reverser™, Booz Allen’s AI-first, cloud-native malware reverse engineering product, is one such example. 

Vellox Reverser™ counteracts broad-scale cyber threats observed in the Indo-Pacific region. Manually reverse-engineering malware on compromised systems is a highly specialized skill. With that challenge in mind, Booz Allen applied decades of cyber experience to create a scalable, automated agentic AI solution that helps units secure the mission’s edge.

Ultimately, any conflict in the Indo-Pacific will differ from the War in Ukraine. However, we can apply lessons from the European AOR to the region, because we cannot protect Taiwan in a vacuum. Defense begins with strategic partnerships and ends with the secure flow of goods, information, and people.