Iran’s nervous neighbors; Another top US general fingers Russia as top threat; How tech could help cheat an Iran deal; The growing tragedy of the Russian air force; And a bit more.
Fears that Iran will take on a larger military role in the Middle East now dominate regional security dynamics in the wake of yesterday’s historic nuclear deal. The Washington Post reported concerns that the deal “could spark a regional arms race.” One anonymous Saudi diplomat said his country would look at “embarking on a nuclear energy program so it can be closer to having nuclear weapons if Iran breaks the deal and weaponizes its program.”
“Sunni Arab states such as Saudi Arabia are concerned that the sanctions relief may produce a flood of cash for Shiite Iran, emboldening it to pursue a more assertive foreign policy at a time when the region is racked by conflict…‘Iran is trying to change the Middle East, and this is unacceptable to Sunnis… Maybe we’ll look to other partners like China if America is giving everything to Iran,’” the Saudi diplomat said.
Before the ink was dry on the deal with Iran, verdicts started rolling in from U.S. lawmakers. Sen. Bob Corker, chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee—which will preside over reviewing the deal—said, “I begin from a place of deep skepticism.” Sen. John McCain quickly declared that “all signs point to this being a bad deal.” President Obama’s long-sought achievement on the agreement faces a tough sell in Congress—but what the sweeping statements swept over is the inconvenient reality that opponents have no real kill switch. Read why, from Defense One Politics Editor Molly O’Toole, here.
The reaction on the 2016 campaign trail included stern words from Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton: “The message to Iran should be loud and clear: We will never allow you to acquire a nuclear weapon; not just during the term of this agreement—never…As president, I would use every tool in our arsenal to compel rigorous Iranian compliance.”
And Jeb Bush: “This isn’t diplomacy—it is appeasement.”
And Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, who said the deal “will be remembered as one of America’s worst diplomatic failures.”
South Carolina Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham called it a “possible death sentence for Israel.”
Florida Republican Sen. Marco Rubio and former Texas Governor Rick Perry both vowed to rescind the agreement if elected, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty reported.
And there’s now a bit more light falling on a grim statistic that came out in last week’s confirmation hearing for U.S. Marine Gen. Joseph Dunford to become the new chairman of the Joint Chiefs: “At least 500 U.S. military deaths in Iraq and Afghanistan were directly linked to Iran and its support for anti-American militants,” Military Times’ Andrew deGrandpre and Andrew Tilghman reported, noting that the stat is “a ballpark figure based on intelligence assessments,” according to a Pentagon official. That angle, here.
And in case anyone’s wondering, the deal has evidently done nothing to alter the path for Americans held in Iran, including Washington Post’s Tehran bureau chief Jason Rezaian, “who is facing trial on charges that include espionage.” That over here. And much more on the winners, losers and a great deal in between, below.
The U.S.-led coalition has a recruiting problem in its campaign against the Islamic State group, John Allen, the White House’s coalition envoy said yesterday in Washington, Air Force Times’ Brian Everstine reported.
Iranian-aligned Shiite militias are leading an offensive to retake the city of Fallujah, which was seized by ISIS a year and a half ago, McClatchy’s Mitchell Prothero reports from Irbil, Iraq: “The Iraqi Defense Ministry announced Monday that the militias and loyalist troops had surrounded the city of 500,000 and were beginning operations to capture it—a task that in 2004 took U.S. Marines two separate assaults six months apart and, in total, three months of hard fighting.”
Baghdad officials say “Sunni tribal fighters and local policemen from Anbar will join the militia-led assault. But many remain skeptical that Sunnis have joined in sufficient numbers to avoid the impression of a Shiite pogrom against Sunnis in Fallujah.” Read the rest here.
Air Force Gen. Paul Selva, President Obama’s nominee to be vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, continued the Pentagon’s recent drumbeat about the threat posed by Russia. Selva told senators at his confirmation hearing Tuesday that Moscow, not ISIS, poses a greater risk to the U.S. mainland, Defense One’s Marcus Weisgerber reports. (More on Russia below the fold.)
Smooth sailing: Other than a brief back-and-forth with McCain about ISIS (and another with Sen. Dan Sullivan, R-Alaska, about the Iran deal), Selva, the head of U.S. Transportation Command, sailed through his confirmation hearing with relative ease; as did his putative replacement, Gen. Darren McDew, who currently leads Air Mobility Command.
What subject got more mentions than Afghanistan at Selva and McDew’s confirmation hearing? New Hampshire’s Pease Air National Guard Base. New Hampshire Sens. Jeanne Shaheen (Democrat), and Kelly Ayotte (Republican) both touted the 157th Air Refueling Wing at Pease and their excitement that the base will be among the first to get the new KC-46A tanker.
Not to be outdone by his neighbors to the south, Sen. Angus King, I-Maine, let everyone know his state has a refueling squadron of its own: “[I]f I were running out of fuel over the North Atlantic, I would want the ‘MAINEiacs’ from the 101st Air Refueling Wing in Bangor to come.” Per the final hearing transcript: Pease references: 13, Afghanistan: 7. Read the rest, here.
And speaking of Afghanistan, Taliban leader Mullah Omar just released a statement in the hopes of shoring up his base against ISIS sympathizers roving around Afghanistan, Long War Journal reported yesterday.
Omar also spoke out in support of the newest phase of what he called “legitimate” peace talks with Kabul. Peace talks are set to resume in the coming weeks; though the where and when has yet to be determined. AFP has more.
From Defense One
Three female U.S. soldiers are one step closer to wearing the Army’s “short tab” as they’ll spend the next few days climbing, rappelling, and evacuating mock casualties in Ranger School’s Mountain Phase. Council on Foreign Relations senior fellow Gayle Tzemach Lemmon on the grit and inspiration at play in the mountains of North Georgia, right here.
The Iran deal: who wins, loses, or falls somewhere in between? Quartz’ Bobby Ghosh offers a scorecard that places the U.S. in Category No. 3. That’s here.
If the deal goes through, international monitors will head to Iran with far better gear than they had while searching for WMD in Iraq. But their job will be far from easy. It’s one thing to sniff for radiation where there shouldn't be any; it’s quite another to discern new traces amid the residue of Iran’s past nuclear efforts. Moreover, dual-use technology might make it easier for Iran to cheat. Technology Editor Patrick Tucker has the story, here.
Who else is buying tickets to Tehran? International arms dealers. Weapons companies, especially ones from Russia and China, are standing by to upgrade Tehran's aging military equipment, writes The Atlantic’s Steve Levine.
Why do U.S. critics hate the Iran deal? The Atlantic’s Peter Beinert says it’s because the situation highlights the real limits of American power. Read his piece here.
And here’s one final lens on the deal—Tom Collina, the policy director for Ploughshares Fund, says that to understand just how important the Iran agreement is, you have to compare life with the deal to life without it. That op-ed is here.
Today’s the last day to register for Thursday’s discussion on the DOD Insider Threat Program with Technology Editor Patrick Tucker sitting down with Patricia Larsen, co-director of the National Insider Threat Task Force, and Mark Nehmer, deputy chief of implementation at the DOD Insider Threat Management and Analysis Center with the Defense Security Service. The event begins at 8 a.m. EDT, at the CEB Waterview Conference Center in Arlington, Va. Reserve your seat here.
Welcome to Wednesday’s edition of The D Brief, from Ben Watson and Brad Peniston. Want to share The D Brief with a friend? Find our subscribe link here. (And if you want to view today’s edition in your browser, you can do that here.) And please tell us what you like, don’t like, or want to drop on our radar right here at the-d-brief@defenseone.com.
McCain takes the podium today at the Heritage Foundation to keynote an event focused on this year’s defense authorization bill. There’s a panel afterward with Todd Harrison of the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessment and former staff directors for the Senate and House Armed Services Committees. It all begins at 11:30 a.m. EDT, and you can sign up to attend the event in person or catch it streaming online right here.
Also happening today: Jade Helm 15 begins. If you’re not up to speed on the “large-scale training exercise”—or as some refer to it, “the Pentagon’s preparation for civil war”—Military Times and the NYT have you covered.
Another tragedy for Russia’s bomber fleet—two pilots were killed when a Tu-95 crashed in the country’s far east yesterday. It’s the latest bad news for Moscow’s air force, including one incident in June when “the army reported an accident involving a similar Tu-95 jet whose engine caught fire during take-off in the far eastern Amur region,” and another earlier this month when “two pilots of a Sukhoi Su-24 aircraft were killed when it crashed during a training mission in the far east of the country,” AFP reports.
What’s going on? “The Soviet-era fleets have fallen victim to age and substandard sustainment” coupled with “overuse of old aircraft and a lack of qualified pilots,” Defense News reports.
The Japanese defense ministry flew half as many air maneuvers against Russian aircraft between April and June compared to the same period in 2014, Reuters reports this morning: “The scramble data release comes a few hours after bills allowing Japan to exercise its right of collective self-defense, or militarily aiding a friendly country under attack, were approved by a lower house panel.”
About those bills: The Japanese public is reportedly showing a bit of distaste for Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s push to advance the country’s self-defense and increased military cooperation with its regional allies, AP reports this morning: “Polls show that about 80 percent of Japanese find the bills hard to swallow, and the majority of them say they think the legislation is unconstitutional.”
And on that note, Navy Times’ David Larter rolls up the thinking behind Japan’s China-driven push for closer coordination with the U.S. Navy. That over here.
Meantime in South Korea, 63 people—including 10 former generals and two former Navy chiefs of staff—“face charges of accepting bribes, fabricating official documents or leaking military secrets,” AP reports this morning, citing a senior prosecutor who said the “lack of an effective supervising system on defense procurement projects was to blame” for numerous illegal “projects to supply the military with body armor, rifles and various equipment loaded at navy ships.”
And before we leave the Asia-Pacific, Beijing’s foreign ministry said this morning “hundreds, perhaps thousands, of Uighurs, a largely Muslim ethnic minority” who “have traveled to Turkey via Southeast Asia are being trained in Syria and Iraq with the aim of bringing jihad back to China.” Reuters has that story.
Now for a Hump Day scare tactics story—it turns out the same Army lab that accidentally shipped live anthrax across the globe (northwestern Utah’s Dugway Proving Grounds) has a dangerous history of mishandling explosives. The Daily Beast’s Noah Shachtman has the exclusive, which includes a bit more detail on how the deadly live virus made its way to more than 85 different laboratories.
There’s a new record for the longest flight of a remotely controlled aircraft, and it’s now held by Aurora Flight Sciences’ Orion drone. The unmanned aircraft flew for 80 hours, two minutes and 52 seconds from Dec. 5 to 8 last year. The Fédération Aéronautique Internationale, the declarer of such records, made the award on July 1. The previous record was just over 30 hours, Aurora said Tuesday. That story here.