Threats
America’s Free-Rider Problem in the Strait of Hormuz
“The United States has not been willing to walk away from the Gulf, so other allies may not step up to do anything because they know that if they don’t, the U.S. will.”
Ideas
Not Even Trump Has Any Idea What His Iran Policy Is
The president canceled a strike because it was “not proportionate,” and then vowed “obliteration.”
Ideas
We Don’t Need Airstrikes to Restore Deterrence in the Strait of Hormuz
Recent history shows that a restrained, multilateral military response can help restore stability.
Ideas
Trump Goes After Iran’s Supreme Leader
Having pulled back from a strike on Iran, the White House is trying sanctions on Ali Khamenei.
Ideas
Is There Still a Deal to Be Done With Iran?
Below the surface, there are faint signs of how both parties can exit the crisis.
Ideas
Worse Than Obama’s Red-Line Moment
Trump has now shown himself just as willing as President Obama to make empty threats that damage American credibility.
Policy
On Iran, It’s Trump Vs. Trump
The president’s 2020 reelection campaign looms large over the decision whether to retaliate for a downed drone.
Science & Tech
How the Pentagon Nickel-and-Dimed Its Way Into Losing a Drone
The lion’s share of the U.S. drone fleet is easy prey for advanced air defenses. It didn’t have to be that way.
Ideas
Trump Might Not Want War, but the Military Is Steering His Iran Policy
The buildup in the Middle East is coming at the request of the forces responsible for the region.
Ideas
Bolton Keeps Trying to Goad Iran Into War
For more than a decade, he’s consistently promoted war with Iran. All that has changed are the pretexts he’s offering to justify one.
Ideas
How to Step Back from the Brink with Iran
Right now, everything both sides do to strengthen their defenses looks to the other side like preparation for attack.
Ideas
Iran Has Options and It’s Starting to Use Them
Washington’s “maximum pressure” campaign has not forced Tehran to yield—in fact, it’s done the opposite.
Ideas
Deterrence Is Failing — Partly Because Iran Has No Idea What the US Really Wants
Successful deterrence requires clear delineation of acceptable and unacceptable behaviors. That needs to start, pronto.
Threats
US Blames Tanker Attacks On Iran; CENTCOM Releases Surveillance Video
Military officials say imagery shows Iranians in boats at the tankers, handling a mine and trying to capture crew members.
Threats
How to Navigate the Fog of War on Iran
The question of how to read U.S. intelligence on Iranian threats—and how to respond to them—is at the center of a debate over military escalation.
Threats
Top US Officer: Iran’s Threats Look Like a ‘Campaign’
The Joint Chiefs chairman says he saw ‘multiple threat streams that were all, perhaps coming together, in time.”
Policy
US To Send 900 Troops To Middle East To Counter Iran
The Trump administration insists that the deployment is purely defensive.
Threats
Iran Briefings Leave Congress Divided Over Trump’s Intentions, War Powers
“Everybody is deeply concerned about Congress getting cut out,” said one Democrat after hearing from Pompeo, Dunford, and Shanahan.
Ideas