Combat Air Power in the Middle East: Present and Future Capabilities

Air power has traditionally played a key role in military operations in the Middle East, providing the region’s militaries with rapid-response capabilities to handle both conventional threats and insurgent groups. Fighter jets are essential for striking hardened targets, and their advanced radars aid air-defense, helping to detect and engage incoming threats – including enemy fighter jets and missiles. 

Particularly considering that many Middle Eastern governments are flush with cash, the region’s military market is fiercely competitive, with all of the world’s top defense exporters constantly jostling for a premier position. But, when it comes to combat aircraft, Western suppliers tend to dominate. 

American foreign policy in the Middle East leans heavily on preserving Israel’s ‘qualitative military edge’ (QME), enabling the Israeli Defense Forces to deter and, if need be, defeat its peer rivals in a conventional conflict. Israel thus became the first country in the region to be approved to purchase Lockheed Martin’s F-35 and, uniquely, was also approved to modify the jets with Israeli systems after delivery. F-35s started arriving in Israel in late 2016, and by 2018 the F-35I ‘Adir’ was flying its first combat missions for the Israeli Air Force (IAF) over Lebanon. To date, Israel has ordered 75 F-35Is, including the latest $3 billion order for 25 booked in June 2024, to fill out three squadrons. 

Alongside the new F-35Is are the traditional workhorses of the IAF, the Lockheed Martin F-16 and Boeing F-15. The IAF first received F-16s in the 1980s, and still retains about 45 F-16D Barak IIs from that era even as it has since retired the F-16A, F-16B, and F-16C variants. These are complemented by 98 F-16I Sufa jets, which were ordered and delivered in the mid-2000s. While the older variants have exited service, the F-16Is, in particular, will continue to play a key role in Israeli operations for years to come. 

The IAF’s F-15 fleet comprises 85 jets, the oldest of which joined the service in the late 1970s. As many as 60 F-15A, F-15B, F-15C, and F-15D jets remain operational, alongside the 25 F-15I Ra’am aircraft ordered in the 1990s. The F-15’s combat capabilities, and in particular its ability to haul a large number of armaments, have made it a staple of Israeli operations, and the IAF continues to purchase the jet. In November 2024, several months after ordering a new batch of F-35s, the IAF moved forward with a $5.2 billion purchase of 25 new F-15I jets that will start arriving in 2031. The IAF is approved to purchase another 25 on top of these, meaning that as many as 50 new F-15Is could be joining the IAF in the 2030s, at which time they will start replacing the oldest F-15s in IAF service

Having finalized the new F-35I and F-15 fighter jet orders in 2024, the IAF will have a steady pipeline of new jets arriving through the 2030s, ensuring the fleet is up-to-date and at least one step ahead of rivals and peers in the region. But Israeli defense planners, aware that other militaries in the region are looking to catch up, will be looking to the horizon towards the next biggest platform. In March 2025, the U.S. revealed its next-generation fighter jet, the Boeing F-47, which can be expected to draw interest from Israel in the years to come as the jet moves through development. 

As the Middle East’s leading defense spender, Saudi Arabia has the finances to procure large volumes of military equipment from any supplier it chooses, enabling Riyadh to shop its options. But while Riyadh has occasionally signed for Chinese and Russian military hardware, it has a strong preference for Western designs, particularly when it comes to combat aircraft. 

The Royal Saudi Air Force (RSAF) relies on three fighter jet platforms, the Tornado, Typhoon, and F-15. The Tornado fleet, comprising around 78 jets, is the oldest among these, having been ordered from British Aerospace (now BAE Systems) in the late 1980s. British production lines also supplied the RSAF’s Eurofighter Typhoons. Saudi Arabia has plans to top up its Typhoon fleet with 48 more jets – which would allow it to retire more Tornado jets – but in 2018, Eurofighter partner Germany announced a ban on new arms sales to Riyadh over the latter’s operations in Yemen. Berlin’s block was lifted in early 2024, putting the possible acquisition back on the table

Saudi Arabia’s F-15 fleet began with the purchase of dozens of F-15C/D fighter jets in the late 1970s. Another 72 F-15S fighter jets followed in the 1990s. In 2011, the U.S. and Saudi Arabia inked a new F-15 deal, covering the delivery of 84 F-15SA jets to the RSAF and the upgrade of the service’s existing F-15S jets to the same standard. Notably, that contract involved some local workshare for Saudi defense firms, dovetailing with the government’s ‘Vision 2030’ industrial plans. 

Moving forward, Riyadh is interested in acquiring fifth-generation combat aircraft, with a focus squarely on the F-35. Considering the U.S. commitment to Israeli QME, the possible sale of F-35s to Saudi Arabia has generally been linked to the pace of Saudi-Israeli political normalization. On May 13, 2025, the White House announced that it was in talks with Riyadh over $142 billion in potential arms deals, including “air force advancement.” No further detail was provided, but reporting in the defense press has suggested that may include F-35s.

The F-35, if it is ultimately acquired, will satisfy key capability requirements for the RSAF. But Riyadh’s industrial ambitions open the door for the Saudi government to simultaneously pursue other next-generation platforms, as well, if doing so will bring local workshare for the budding Saudi defense industry. In February 2024, the head of Saudi Arabia’s General Authority for Military Industries, Ahmad Al-Ohali, told media that Riyadh was involved in a “serious discussion” with the partners in the Global Combat Air Programme (GCAP) over possible Saudi participation in the sixth-generation project. Press reporting over the last year has also suggested Saudi interest in Turkish Aerospace Industries’ Kaan fighter jet, which performed its maiden flight in early 2024. 
 

Similar to its neighbors in the Gulf Cooperation Council, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) buys much of its military equipment, including fighter jets, from the United States. The UAE Air Force (UAEAF) operates 78 F-16E/F fighter jets, which serve as the primary backbone of the air fleet. These jets, purchased in 2000, saw extensive usage over Yemen in the late 2010s and also performed strikes on ISIS positions in Syria during this timeframe, as well. 

Besides the F-16s, the other primary fighter jet in Emirati service is Dassault Aviation’s Mirage 2000, which joined the air fleet in the 1980s. Up to 55 Mirage 2000s of various types are in the UAE’s inventory, though over half of this fleet may not be on active duty, awaiting re-sale to a new operator. With these jets approaching the end of their service lives, the Emirati government spent years negotiating for a replacement, finally settling on an acquisition of 80 Rafale fighter jets from Dassault in 2021. The UAEAF took formal custody of its first F4 Rafale this past January and the jets will be flying military operations in-country before the end of 2026. As these join the UAEAF, the Mirages will be leaving service, with 30 reportedly due to be sold to Morocco or Egypt in the near future. 

The Rafale deal, however, had languished for years as the UAE negotiated with the U.S. over a possible purchase of the F-35. Following several years of technical talks, the UAE was approved for the $10.4 billion purchase of 50 F-35As on November 10, 2020 under the first Trump administration. Talks were reportedly frozen shortly thereafter, however, over Emirati complaints about usage restrictions associated with the jets. The F-35 deal has continued to stall, and a senior Emirati government official told Reuters in September 2024 that Abu Dhabi would not re-open the subject regardless of who won the U.S. elections later that fall. 

For now, the Rafale purchase fills short-term capability gaps for the UAEAF, but the service will eventually seek to induct next-generation combat aircraft. Should the F-35 talks remain frozen, that may entail looking elsewhere, perhaps following Saudi Arabia in eyeing the GCAP. The UAE has reportedly expressed interest in both the Kaan fighter jet and Korea Aerospace Industries’ KF-21 program.