DPRK tests 5th nuke; Mosul offensive in October?; DOJ creates Internet-of-Things team; A SEAL hostage-rescue mission fails; and just a bit more.
North Korea conducted its fifth nuclear test this morning pretty darn close to their fourth test—carried out underground and, like this morning’s, initially thought to be an earthquake (here’s how to tell the difference)—in January. The difference: the fifth test was much stronger than the last, leading North Korea to brag this morning that the test confirmed it now has a “nuclear warhead that has been standardized to be able to be mounted on” its ballistic missiles, The New York Times reports.
“This is our response to hostile powers, including the United States. We are sending out a message that if the enemies attack us, we can counterattack," state-run television boasted, the Washington Post reports.
South Korea’s defense ministry “estimated the explosive yield was equivalent to 10 kilotons of TNT, the most powerful detonation unleashed in a North Korean nuclear test so far,” the Times writes. “The South’s government estimated the North’s last nuclear test, conducted in January, at 4.8 magnitude with an explosive yield of six to nine kilotons. (By comparison, the atomic bomb dropped on Hiroshima in 1945 exploded with 15 kilotons of energy.)”
The test, naturally, drew “robust condemnations from Russia, the European Union, NATO, Germany and Britain,” Reuters adds. And China, meanwhile, “said it was resolutely opposed to the test and urged Pyongyang to stop taking any actions that would worsen the situation. It said it would lodge a protest with the North Korean embassy in Beijing.”
Reminder: Only North Korea has performed nuke tests in the 21st century, the Washington Post also reminds readers in a nice interactive that maps 2,055 nuclear tests by eight countries over the last 71 years.
So, what next? “Sanctions have already been imposed on almost everything possible, so the policy is at an impasse,” said Korean expert and University of Tokyo professor Tadashi Kimiya, to Reuters.
What is intriguing: “It was not clear whether Pyongyang had notified Beijing or Moscow of its planned nuclear test. Senior officials from Pyongyang were in both capitals this week” and China “shut off access to their online seismic data a few weeks ago,” arms control wonk Jeffrey Lewis tweeted last night. More on that speculation wormhole, here.
A drive on Mosul could start in October, and any coalition-led offensive into Raqqa is “on hold” for now, The Wall Street Journal reported Thursday after Ben Kesling sat down with ISIS war commander Lt. Gen. Stephen Townsend in Baghdad. The U.S. just added 400 new troops to Iraq, Kesling wrote, raising the total to more than 5,000 in-country (a number later disputed by a U.S. military spokesman; more on that below). “The troops have been sent into Iraq to assist Iraqi forces consolidating south of Mosul in what is known as the launchpad for the allied operation in the city of Qayyarah, defense officials said on Thursday.”
About that timeline: Initially, it was reported that Townsend was behind the “October” date. But updates to the Journal’s story added a little information after a Pentagon presser Thursday, and laid the October date at the feet of an Iraqi commander, Gen. Maan Al Saedi, a commander in Iraq’s counterterrorism forces. “Security forces are almost done with preparations for the fight and forces are being organized now, so it is very possible we start the operation in early October.” But “when asked if the Mosul assault could kick off in a month...he stressed that he had no idea what the final timeline looks like.”
A word on previewing these sorts of big events: This latest teased timeline comes 18 months after the U.S. military raised eyebrows when it initially revealed plans to retake the city to reporters way back in February 2015. That attack was supposed to happen “in the spring” of 2015.
OIR spox Col. John Dorrian seemed to have been thrown a bit of a curve by the questions from reporters on the Journal’s report. In a subsequent press briefing, Dorrian pushed back on the paraphrased comments from Townsend that the offensive will begin before Halloween: “I think there might be some clarification on that quote,” the colonel said. “He didn’t say early October, I can tell you that.”
However, Dorrian admitted that if Iraq’s “desire is to try to get it done around the end of the year, we’re going to have to start soon.”
So how many ISIS fighters are holed up in Mosul? “We think it’s anywhere from 3,000 to 4,500,” Dorrian said. “And in—in Raqqah, we think somewhere on the order of 1,000. But these are squishy figures and it's very difficult to tell.”
And how many troops are expected to be needed for Mosul? “We expect between eight and 12 brigades to be involved in the liberation of Mosul and a like number of hold forces that would come in behind. Now these are security forces and they’re also village forces,” Dorrian said.
The UN says the push into Mosul could scatter as many as one million people in all directions. The problem with that is there’s currently only enough capacity in neighboring areas to support 450,000 citizens. More on Iraq’s preparations for Mosul, via Reuters, here.
In Syria, a U.S. drone is being blamed for an airstrike on Jabhat Fateh al-Sham (formerly al-Qaeda’s Nusra Front) military chief Abu Omar al-Homsi (aka Abu Omar al-Saraqeb) along with former Nusra emir of Idlib province, Abo Omar al-Shami. The timing of the strike is noteworthy, writes Middle East analyst Charles Lister, because Moscow recently accused the U.S. of refusing to target al-Qaeda in Syria.
For what it’s worth: “The strike targeted a meeting that had been called to plan a new opposition counter-offensive to break the re-besieging of Aleppo,” Lister adds after the Syrian regime sealed off rebel-held Aleppo again over the weekend.
And by the way, Lister discusses AQ’s evolution in Syria in the latest issue of “The Sentinel,” from the Combating Terrorism Center at West Point. A wide-ranging interview with CIA Director John Brennan is also inside; CNN turned a bit of it into a story about how Brennan “doubts Iraq and Syria can be put back together again.” That, here.
From Defense One
How Will Terrorists Use the Internet of Things? The Justice Department Is Trying to Figure That Out // Tech Editor Patrick Tucker: As the business of connected devices explodes, DOJ joins other agencies in evaluating the national-security risks.
U.S. Intel Chief: Climate Change Is Adding Fuel to the World's Extremist Fires // Editorial Fellow Caroline Houck: DNI Clapper says environmental factors will keep the cycle of extremism going long after ISIS is vanquished.
Hillary Clinton Fails to Offer a Foreign-Policy Vision // The Atlantic’s Peter Beinart: At a candidates’ forum on Wednesday night, the Democratic nominee served up loads of specifics—but no positive story to weave them together.
Trump's Defense-and-Budget Plan Has Been Tried Before // Quartz’ Tim Fernholz: The GOP candidate's proposals for irresponsible tax cuts and uncapped defense spending look quite a bit like George W. Bush’s.
Did you miss this week’s Global Business Brief? // Global Business Editor Marcus Weisgerber: A Surprise at COMDEF; Arms Exports Soar…Again; Record Sales to Saudi; and more.
Welcome to Friday’s edition of The D Brief by Ben Watson, Marcus Weisgerber and Bradley Peniston. On this day in 1942, a Japanese floatplane dropped a few bombs on an Oregon forest, completing history’s only airstrike on the U.S. mainland. (Send your friends this link: http://get.defenseone.com/d-brief/. And let us know your news: the-d-brief@defenseone.com.)
Trump’s first classified briefing (it’s at the Secret level) has caused a stir among both U.S. officials and in the Trump camp, NBC News reported Thursday. Their story concerns remarks from “four sources with knowledge of the briefing — including two intelligence officials who spoke to people in the room” who said Trump’s advisor, retired Gen. Mike Flynn, “repeatedly interrupted the briefers until New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie intervened.” Both Flynn and Christie colorfully denied the allegations, with Flynn calling the report “total b__s___. These are anonymous sources. They’re lying.” And Christie calling it “a complete work of fiction.”
Nevertheless, “Current and former U.S. intelligence officials who asked that their names not be disclosed told NBC News that many members of the current intelligence community—leadership rank and file—were angered by Trump’s comments Wednesday night, and the possibility that he may have disclosed details of his intelligence briefing or attempted to politicize it.” Which is to say the Trump campaign continues to shake up the “establishment,” wherever it operates.
Also last night: Russia’s RT television network aired an interview with Trump by former CNN host Larry King. (WaPo headline: “Trump attacks U.S. foreign policy, political press corps on state-owned Russian television network.”) The Trump camp said it didn’t know the phone interview (conducted Wednesday evening, presumably after the commander-in-chief forum) was going to be televised, much less on Russian state media.
Confusion aside, what did Trump say? “The media has been unbelievably dishonest. I mean they’ll take a statement that you make which is perfect and they’ll cut it up and chop it up and shorten it or lengthen it or do something with it.” He also knocked Obama and Clinton’s involvement in the decision to pull troops out of Iraq in 2011. And he said “I think it’s probably unlikely” that Russia hacked the DNC. “I think maybe the Democrats are putting that out. Who knows? But I think that it’s pretty unlikely.” More on the exchange from WaPo, here.
Lockheed and General Dynamics CEOs among Forbes’ “most powerful women.” Lockheed Martin CEO, Chairman, and President Marillyn Hewson and General Dynamics CEO and Chairman Phebe Novakovic were listed in the top 10 of the Fortune 50 Most Powerful Women. Hewson was ranked No. 3 and Novakovich ranked No. 8. More here.
Abizaid to advise Ukrainian defense minister. U.S. Defense Secretary Ash Carter, in London for the U.N. Peacekeeping Defense Ministerial, named retired Gen. John Abizaid, the former head of U.S. Central Command, as adviser to Ukrainian Defense Minister Stepan Poltorak. The move comes “as Ukraine aims to implement reforms designed to bring its armed forces in line with Western principles and standards, such as enhancing democratic civilian control of the military, transitioning to a NATO-interoperable staff structure, and combatting corruption,” according to the Pentagon.
In Afghanistan, SEAL Team 6 HALO jumpers attempted a hostage rescue mission in the east, but hit a dry hole instead, the Pentagon said Thursday afternoon. The mission was intended to sweep up two professors, one Australian and one American, who had been working at the American University in Kabul when they were kidnapped in August. “The US was never certain the professors were at the site, or if they were, when they had been moved,” CNN reports, adding a firefight on the ground led to the death of seven fighters whose affiliation was not given.
A Pentagon bureaucratic error appears to have contributed to thousands of dollars improperly granted to surviving family members of Guard and Reserve soldiers, Roll Call’s John Donnelly reported Thursday. “At issue is a requirement that the Pentagon pay the survivors of some members of the National Guard and reserves more than others — sometimes nearly 10 times more. Those reservists who, on the day of their deaths, were either called to active duty or assigned to so-called active duty training get much more than those who happen to have been designated on their last day as being in a status called ‘inactive duty training.’” The Pentagon is evidently aware of the problem, and is working “to change the law that covers the so-called Survivor Benefit Program.” Much more to the story, here.
Lastly this week: Who wants a used Humvee? It’ll run you at least $7,000, and they’re among “1,300 pieces of surplus military hardware that will be up for auction [beginning this past Wednesday] September 7,” National Defense Magazine reported earlier this week. But the big show, “an all-Humvee auction of 250 vehicles” gets under way on Tuesday. More here. And have a great weekend, everyone!