5 Reasons Obama’s Afghan Withdrawal Delay is Necessary But Not Sufficient

A former Green Beret and White House policy advisor ticks off the missing elements of success.

The situation in Afghanistan remains precarious. The Taliban are contesting Kunduz and holding more rural ground than they have since 2001; ISIS is threatening Jalalabad in the east. The unity government is paralyzed and the Afghan National Security Forces are taking unsustainable casualties. For many of us still heavily engaged in the country, President Obama’s decision to halt the long-planned U.S. withdrawal is welcome and necessary, but not sufficient. Here are some reasons why:

1. The current effort is not enough. If the Afghan government and military are barely holding out with the support of 9,800 American troops, how will 5,500 troops a year from now improve the situation? Today’s training and advisory effort is only engaged at the regional corps level, not the brigades and battalions actually doing the fighting. Our advisors are helping only with support efforts such as human resources and procurement. This kind of effort is important for long-term success at the institutional level but the Afghans need tactical operational support now. Additionally, as the security situation worsens, more of the U.S. boots on the ground will be devoted to protecting themselves, not helping the Afghans improve. It’s a downward spiral that this announcement doesn’t do much to help.

2. Too few eyes and ears. One of the most disturbing aspects of operating in Afghanistan at current troop levels is that we are essentially blind in the rural provinces where the Taliban and ISIS are gaining strength. Critical intelligence assets — particularly human intelligence resources — have been pulled from Afghanistan, either to meet the arbitrary troop caps set by the White House or to help out in to Iraq. The small counter-terrorism force envisioned by the Administration can only do so much; its capabilities will decline the longer our visibility remains limited.

3. We still say we’re leaving. Despite headlines that say President Obama has halted the withdrawal, the reality is that he has only delayed it by a year. The real message hasn’t changed since 2009: America is leaving, it’s just a matter of when. I was standing in my headquarters as a Special Forces officer in 2009 when the president announced the surge into Afghanistan and in the same breath also announced a timeline for withdrawal. One of my officers exasperatedly wondered aloud what would have happened if FDR had announced D-Day but also told the Germans we would only be in Europe for the one more year. The administration just doesn’t get how badly these signals of withdrawal and abandonment undermine our efforts and locals’ belief in us. Troop numbers and dates are irrelevant to most Afghans. What they need to hear is that the U.S. will stand with them for the long haul. They want to hear what the Germans, South Koreans, and Filipinos heard after WWII: that America is standing with you, that we will defeat Islamic extremism just as we defeated Communism.

4. The rules of engagement are still too restrictive. No matter how many troops are on the ground this year or next, if they are not allowed to choose how and when to engage the enemy or leave their fortified bases, then we may as well bring them home. Read carefully the press releases after the U.S. provides air support to the Afghans or conducts other strikes. The spokesmen invariably indicate that the insurgents were “affiliated with al Qaeda” or “a threat to the force.” That’s because the current ROE stipulates that U.S. forces can only support the Afghan Army if U.S. forces are directly threatened or if al Qaeda is involved. The effect is to drastically raise the bar for when the military command can engage the Taliban by forcing it to jump through legal hoops.

5. No path to reconciliation. Missing from the announcement today was any type of long-term political or diplomatic strategy to stabilize the country. Suppose I am wrong on the above points and this modest withdrawal delay actually improves the security situation. To what end? The administration is still pinning its hopes on reconciliation talks hosted by Pakistan. Why would the Taliban negotiate — much less ISIS — when they believe they are winning? We were on our way to forcing the Taliban to the table and negotiating from a position of strength during the surge in 2010 but our enemies knew they could just wait us out. Today’s announcement will do little to change their mind.

True to form, the Obama administration is determined to fight its plan rather than the enemy and the situation on the ground. Keeping 9,800 troops there a year longer may keep a catastrophe in Afghanistan out of the headlines for the remainder of the President’s term, but it falls well short of a long-term, comprehensive strategy to stabilize a nuclear-armed region and prevent another descent into chaos. In military terms, today’s announcement was adding a Band-Aid to a sucking chest wound.

X
This website uses cookies to enhance user experience and to analyze performance and traffic on our website. We also share information about your use of our site with our social media, advertising and analytics partners. Learn More / Do Not Sell My Personal Information
Accept Cookies
X
Cookie Preferences Cookie List

Do Not Sell My Personal Information

When you visit our website, we store cookies on your browser to collect information. The information collected might relate to you, your preferences or your device, and is mostly used to make the site work as you expect it to and to provide a more personalized web experience. However, you can choose not to allow certain types of cookies, which may impact your experience of the site and the services we are able to offer. Click on the different category headings to find out more and change our default settings according to your preference. You cannot opt-out of our First Party Strictly Necessary Cookies as they are deployed in order to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting the cookie banner and remembering your settings, to log into your account, to redirect you when you log out, etc.). For more information about the First and Third Party Cookies used please follow this link.

Allow All Cookies

Manage Consent Preferences

Strictly Necessary Cookies - Always Active

We do not allow you to opt-out of our certain cookies, as they are necessary to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting our cookie banner and remembering your privacy choices) and/or to monitor site performance. These cookies are not used in a way that constitutes a “sale” of your data under the CCPA. You can set your browser to block or alert you about these cookies, but some parts of the site will not work as intended if you do so. You can usually find these settings in the Options or Preferences menu of your browser. Visit www.allaboutcookies.org to learn more.

Sale of Personal Data, Targeting & Social Media Cookies

Under the California Consumer Privacy Act, you have the right to opt-out of the sale of your personal information to third parties. These cookies collect information for analytics and to personalize your experience with targeted ads. You may exercise your right to opt out of the sale of personal information by using this toggle switch. If you opt out we will not be able to offer you personalised ads and will not hand over your personal information to any third parties. Additionally, you may contact our legal department for further clarification about your rights as a California consumer by using this Exercise My Rights link

If you have enabled privacy controls on your browser (such as a plugin), we have to take that as a valid request to opt-out. Therefore we would not be able to track your activity through the web. This may affect our ability to personalize ads according to your preferences.

Targeting cookies may be set through our site by our advertising partners. They may be used by those companies to build a profile of your interests and show you relevant adverts on other sites. They do not store directly personal information, but are based on uniquely identifying your browser and internet device. If you do not allow these cookies, you will experience less targeted advertising.

Social media cookies are set by a range of social media services that we have added to the site to enable you to share our content with your friends and networks. They are capable of tracking your browser across other sites and building up a profile of your interests. This may impact the content and messages you see on other websites you visit. If you do not allow these cookies you may not be able to use or see these sharing tools.

If you want to opt out of all of our lead reports and lists, please submit a privacy request at our Do Not Sell page.

Save Settings
Cookie Preferences Cookie List

Cookie List

A cookie is a small piece of data (text file) that a website – when visited by a user – asks your browser to store on your device in order to remember information about you, such as your language preference or login information. Those cookies are set by us and called first-party cookies. We also use third-party cookies – which are cookies from a domain different than the domain of the website you are visiting – for our advertising and marketing efforts. More specifically, we use cookies and other tracking technologies for the following purposes:

Strictly Necessary Cookies

We do not allow you to opt-out of our certain cookies, as they are necessary to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting our cookie banner and remembering your privacy choices) and/or to monitor site performance. These cookies are not used in a way that constitutes a “sale” of your data under the CCPA. You can set your browser to block or alert you about these cookies, but some parts of the site will not work as intended if you do so. You can usually find these settings in the Options or Preferences menu of your browser. Visit www.allaboutcookies.org to learn more.

Functional Cookies

We do not allow you to opt-out of our certain cookies, as they are necessary to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting our cookie banner and remembering your privacy choices) and/or to monitor site performance. These cookies are not used in a way that constitutes a “sale” of your data under the CCPA. You can set your browser to block or alert you about these cookies, but some parts of the site will not work as intended if you do so. You can usually find these settings in the Options or Preferences menu of your browser. Visit www.allaboutcookies.org to learn more.

Performance Cookies

We do not allow you to opt-out of our certain cookies, as they are necessary to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting our cookie banner and remembering your privacy choices) and/or to monitor site performance. These cookies are not used in a way that constitutes a “sale” of your data under the CCPA. You can set your browser to block or alert you about these cookies, but some parts of the site will not work as intended if you do so. You can usually find these settings in the Options or Preferences menu of your browser. Visit www.allaboutcookies.org to learn more.

Sale of Personal Data

We also use cookies to personalize your experience on our websites, including by determining the most relevant content and advertisements to show you, and to monitor site traffic and performance, so that we may improve our websites and your experience. You may opt out of our use of such cookies (and the associated “sale” of your Personal Information) by using this toggle switch. You will still see some advertising, regardless of your selection. Because we do not track you across different devices, browsers and GEMG properties, your selection will take effect only on this browser, this device and this website.

Social Media Cookies

We also use cookies to personalize your experience on our websites, including by determining the most relevant content and advertisements to show you, and to monitor site traffic and performance, so that we may improve our websites and your experience. You may opt out of our use of such cookies (and the associated “sale” of your Personal Information) by using this toggle switch. You will still see some advertising, regardless of your selection. Because we do not track you across different devices, browsers and GEMG properties, your selection will take effect only on this browser, this device and this website.

Targeting Cookies

We also use cookies to personalize your experience on our websites, including by determining the most relevant content and advertisements to show you, and to monitor site traffic and performance, so that we may improve our websites and your experience. You may opt out of our use of such cookies (and the associated “sale” of your Personal Information) by using this toggle switch. You will still see some advertising, regardless of your selection. Because we do not track you across different devices, browsers and GEMG properties, your selection will take effect only on this browser, this device and this website.