U.S. Navy and Republic of Korea Navy ships steam in formation during exercise Foal Eagle 2017.

U.S. Navy and Republic of Korea Navy ships steam in formation during exercise Foal Eagle 2017. U.S. Navy / Mass Communication Specialist 2nd Class Z.A. Landers

How Postponing a Wargame Helped Create a Diplomatic Opening

Delaying Foal Eagle 2018 made an underappreciated contribution toward the first meeting of U.S. and North Korean heads of state.

U.S. and South Korean officials credit the U.S. strategy of maximum pressure and “zero concessions” for the sudden diplomatic movements by North Korea, including the Trump-Kim meeting planned for this spring. Less appreciated is their unusual decision in January to postpone a major annual wargame, which facilitated the recent talks between North and South Korea that led to this point. While the temporary suspension of Foal Eagle may not have been a concession per se, it did represent an important policy shift, and an effective use of military exercises as a bargaining chip. In essence, the “maximum pressure” strategy may have succeeded only because the pressure was relieved, apparently at just the right moment.

For nearly four decades, U.S. and South Korean forces have conducted large-scale annual exercises to maintain operational readiness and improve the allies’ interoperability and command-and-control capabilities. Foal Eagle involves hundreds of thousands of troops, including naval, air, and special operations units. Last year’s edition, for example, was primarily intended to strengthen the alliance and deter North Korean aggression, but also included exercises “to preemptively ‘detect, defend, disrupt and destroy’ North Korean nuclear and missile facilities.” Pyongyang despises the annual drills, and has consistently used them to justify its threats and missile tests by accusing the U.S. and South Korea of saber-rattling and preparing to invade.

Last year, the U.S. repeatedly rejected Chinese proposals for a “dual suspension” agreement: a suspension of North Korean missile tests in exchange for the suspension of U.S.-ROK military exercises. This approach was previously proposed by the North Koreans in 2015, but the U.S. understandably refused to link routine drills with nuclear testing. In August 2017, the annual Ulchi-Freedom Guardian drills took place amid a series of North Korean missile tests, followed by its most powerful nuclear test to date. The idea resurfaced last November, when a spokesman for China’s Foreign Ministry argued that the proposal was “the most realistic, viable and reasonable solution in the current situation” (adding that “it’s only the first step, not the end”). The Trump administration disagreed, pointing to the failure of similar agreements in the 1990s.

Instead, and following North Korea’s provocative late-November launch of an ICBM into Japanese waters, the U.S. kept up the pressure with Vigilant Ace, an exercise whose 230-plus aircraft included F-22s stealth fighters, F-35s, and B-1B bombers. Both the tempo of the drills and the capabilities of the units contributed to the sense of escalation toward “maximum pressure.” By the end of 2017, confrontation seemed all but inevitable.

However, in early January, President Trump agreed to South Korea’s request to postpone Foal Eagle. A White House statement said the move would “de-conflict the Olympics and our military exercises so that United States and Republic of Korea forces can focus on ensuring the security of the Games.” While Defense Secretary James Mattis said the decision was largely about logistics — keeping the massive movements of military forces from interfering with the Olympics — President Moon characterized the move “as an olive branch to North Korea.”

Aside from diplomatic isolation, economic sanctions, and forceful rhetoric, the U.S. has few options short of war to compel North Korea to abandon its nuclear weapons program. Military exercises thus have an important place in the diplomatic arsenal – they send a clear, credible signal of commitment and reinforce the deterrent effect of U.S. forces stationed in the theater. In this instance, the U.S. and South Korea also used them to exert pressure and gain diplomatic leverage by demonstrating preparedness for worst-case contingencies, and ostensibly to make a symbolic gesture of good will.

By postponing Foal Eagle at the behest of South Korea, the U.S. displayed confidence and restraint, de-escalated tensions on the peninsula, and created an opening for diplomacy and dialogue in the context of the Olympic Games. South Korean National Security Advisor Chung has said that Kim now claims to be committed to denuclearization, and that he will refrain from further nuclear and missile testing. He also said Kim has accepted the continuation of U.S.-South Korean military exercises, now planned to begin at the end of March.

The volatility of the situation is difficult to overstate, and there remain significant hurdles to denuclearizing North Korea, not to mention resolving the Korean War. The U.S. has historical cause for skepticism about Pyongyang’s ability to negotiate in good faith, and North Korea will undoubtedly continue to complain about U.S. military presence and activity in the region. Nevertheless, the recent overtures from both sides represent rare signs of progress. It appears for the moment that a de facto dual suspension agreement has broken the cycle of tit-for-tat military drills and tests, and may lead to direct talks between the heads of state of the U.S. and North Korea for the first time. This potential diplomatic breakthrough should be partly attributed to the successful employment of military exercises as a tool of coercive diplomacy.

X
This website uses cookies to enhance user experience and to analyze performance and traffic on our website. We also share information about your use of our site with our social media, advertising and analytics partners. Learn More / Do Not Sell My Personal Information
Accept Cookies
X
Cookie Preferences Cookie List

Do Not Sell My Personal Information

When you visit our website, we store cookies on your browser to collect information. The information collected might relate to you, your preferences or your device, and is mostly used to make the site work as you expect it to and to provide a more personalized web experience. However, you can choose not to allow certain types of cookies, which may impact your experience of the site and the services we are able to offer. Click on the different category headings to find out more and change our default settings according to your preference. You cannot opt-out of our First Party Strictly Necessary Cookies as they are deployed in order to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting the cookie banner and remembering your settings, to log into your account, to redirect you when you log out, etc.). For more information about the First and Third Party Cookies used please follow this link.

Allow All Cookies

Manage Consent Preferences

Strictly Necessary Cookies - Always Active

We do not allow you to opt-out of our certain cookies, as they are necessary to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting our cookie banner and remembering your privacy choices) and/or to monitor site performance. These cookies are not used in a way that constitutes a “sale” of your data under the CCPA. You can set your browser to block or alert you about these cookies, but some parts of the site will not work as intended if you do so. You can usually find these settings in the Options or Preferences menu of your browser. Visit www.allaboutcookies.org to learn more.

Sale of Personal Data, Targeting & Social Media Cookies

Under the California Consumer Privacy Act, you have the right to opt-out of the sale of your personal information to third parties. These cookies collect information for analytics and to personalize your experience with targeted ads. You may exercise your right to opt out of the sale of personal information by using this toggle switch. If you opt out we will not be able to offer you personalised ads and will not hand over your personal information to any third parties. Additionally, you may contact our legal department for further clarification about your rights as a California consumer by using this Exercise My Rights link

If you have enabled privacy controls on your browser (such as a plugin), we have to take that as a valid request to opt-out. Therefore we would not be able to track your activity through the web. This may affect our ability to personalize ads according to your preferences.

Targeting cookies may be set through our site by our advertising partners. They may be used by those companies to build a profile of your interests and show you relevant adverts on other sites. They do not store directly personal information, but are based on uniquely identifying your browser and internet device. If you do not allow these cookies, you will experience less targeted advertising.

Social media cookies are set by a range of social media services that we have added to the site to enable you to share our content with your friends and networks. They are capable of tracking your browser across other sites and building up a profile of your interests. This may impact the content and messages you see on other websites you visit. If you do not allow these cookies you may not be able to use or see these sharing tools.

If you want to opt out of all of our lead reports and lists, please submit a privacy request at our Do Not Sell page.

Save Settings
Cookie Preferences Cookie List

Cookie List

A cookie is a small piece of data (text file) that a website – when visited by a user – asks your browser to store on your device in order to remember information about you, such as your language preference or login information. Those cookies are set by us and called first-party cookies. We also use third-party cookies – which are cookies from a domain different than the domain of the website you are visiting – for our advertising and marketing efforts. More specifically, we use cookies and other tracking technologies for the following purposes:

Strictly Necessary Cookies

We do not allow you to opt-out of our certain cookies, as they are necessary to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting our cookie banner and remembering your privacy choices) and/or to monitor site performance. These cookies are not used in a way that constitutes a “sale” of your data under the CCPA. You can set your browser to block or alert you about these cookies, but some parts of the site will not work as intended if you do so. You can usually find these settings in the Options or Preferences menu of your browser. Visit www.allaboutcookies.org to learn more.

Functional Cookies

We do not allow you to opt-out of our certain cookies, as they are necessary to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting our cookie banner and remembering your privacy choices) and/or to monitor site performance. These cookies are not used in a way that constitutes a “sale” of your data under the CCPA. You can set your browser to block or alert you about these cookies, but some parts of the site will not work as intended if you do so. You can usually find these settings in the Options or Preferences menu of your browser. Visit www.allaboutcookies.org to learn more.

Performance Cookies

We do not allow you to opt-out of our certain cookies, as they are necessary to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting our cookie banner and remembering your privacy choices) and/or to monitor site performance. These cookies are not used in a way that constitutes a “sale” of your data under the CCPA. You can set your browser to block or alert you about these cookies, but some parts of the site will not work as intended if you do so. You can usually find these settings in the Options or Preferences menu of your browser. Visit www.allaboutcookies.org to learn more.

Sale of Personal Data

We also use cookies to personalize your experience on our websites, including by determining the most relevant content and advertisements to show you, and to monitor site traffic and performance, so that we may improve our websites and your experience. You may opt out of our use of such cookies (and the associated “sale” of your Personal Information) by using this toggle switch. You will still see some advertising, regardless of your selection. Because we do not track you across different devices, browsers and GEMG properties, your selection will take effect only on this browser, this device and this website.

Social Media Cookies

We also use cookies to personalize your experience on our websites, including by determining the most relevant content and advertisements to show you, and to monitor site traffic and performance, so that we may improve our websites and your experience. You may opt out of our use of such cookies (and the associated “sale” of your Personal Information) by using this toggle switch. You will still see some advertising, regardless of your selection. Because we do not track you across different devices, browsers and GEMG properties, your selection will take effect only on this browser, this device and this website.

Targeting Cookies

We also use cookies to personalize your experience on our websites, including by determining the most relevant content and advertisements to show you, and to monitor site traffic and performance, so that we may improve our websites and your experience. You may opt out of our use of such cookies (and the associated “sale” of your Personal Information) by using this toggle switch. You will still see some advertising, regardless of your selection. Because we do not track you across different devices, browsers and GEMG properties, your selection will take effect only on this browser, this device and this website.