Today's D Brief: US kills AQ leader in Kabul; Afghanistan's fraught future; 3 carriers near the SCS; Pelosi to Taiwan; And a bit more.

More than two decades after the 9/11 attacks, the U.S. finally killed 71-year-old al-Qaeda terrorist leader Ayman al-Zawahiri with a CIA drone strike on Sunday morning near the heart of downtown Kabul, Afghanistan, according to the Associated Press. (Here are some images alleged to have been taken around the scene just moments after.)

Zawahiri had been Osama bin Laden’s most trusted deputy for years until the latter’s death during a U.S. raid in May 2011. In the 11 years since, Zawahiri “coordinated al Qaeda’s branches and all around the world—including setting priorities, for providing operational guidance that called for and inspired attacks against U.S. targets,” U.S. President Joe Biden said in a televised address to the nation Monday evening. 

How it happened: “Our intelligence community located Zawahiri earlier this year,” Biden said. “He had moved to downtown Kabul to reunite with members of his immediate family.” And he’s believed to have been relaxing in the residential building with his family when the strike occurred; though his family members—including wife, children, and grandchildren—were reportedly in a separate room and were very intentionally not killed in the attack, according to U.S. officials, who told reporters, “We identified Zawahiri on multiple occasions for sustained periods of time on the balcony where he was ultimately struck.” (And in case you’re curious, “There were zero American personnel on the ground in Kabul” for the strike, the official added.)

Biden: “After carefully considering the clear and convincing evidence of his location, I authorized a precision strike that would remove him from the battlefield once and for all,” the president said. And that suggests Zawahiri was under considerably close watch in the days leading up to Sunday’s strike, because Biden noted, “one week ago, after being advised that the conditions were optimal, I gave the final approval to go get him, and the mission was a success. None of his family members were hurt, and there were no civilian casualties.”

The fact that Zawahiri was even in Kabul was a “clear violation” of the deal the U.S. signed with the Taliban in Doha, Qatar, White House officials said Monday evening. That deal eventually led to the U.S. and allies hurriedly leaving the country after Kabul’s prior administration under then-President Ashraf Ghani collapsed suddenly under Taliban pressure in August 2021.

“By hosting and sheltering the leader of al Qa’ida in Kabul,” U.S. State Secretary Antony Blinken said in a statement Monday evening, “the Taliban grossly violated the Doha Agreement and repeated assurances to the world that they would not allow Afghan territory to be used by terrorists to threaten the security of other countries…The world is a safer place following the death of Zawahiri, and the United States will continue to act resolutely against those who would threaten our country, our people, or our allies and partners,” Blinken said. 

The Taliban, in a likely face-saving gesture, disagreed about the alleged Doha allegation, but did not elaborate. (By Tuesday morning, the group’s spokesman used Twitter not to say more about Zawahiri, but instead to amplify an eight-tweet thread from the group’s propaganda minister, Inamullah Samangani, about oil exploration and mining projects with Chinese developers.) Read over the Taliban’s relatively short post-attack statement, here

Apropos of nothing: Zawahiri “was on the run even longer than Whitey Bulger,” former U.S. Marine officer C.J. Chivers tweeted Monday evening. 

What’s next for AQ? An Egyptian-born guy by the name of Saif al-Adl is “the man many expect to be the next leader of al-Qaeda,” according to Paul Cruickshank of the CTC Sentinel, from the Combating Terrorism Center at West Point. Al-Adl is believed to now be living in Iran, where he enjoys “revered status within the movement,” according to former FBI agent Ali Soufan, who profiled al-Adl in Feb. 2021. Read that, here.

Others who could follow behind Zawahiri include Abdal-Rahman al-Maghrebi; Yazid Mebrak of AQ’s Islamic Maghreb branch; or Ahmed Diriye of al-Shabaab, according to Jerome Dreven of the Crisis Group, who cites a recent United Nations Security Council report for those suggestions. 

Bigger picture: “AQ faces a real strategic conundrum since its strategic direction is a failure,” Dreven writes. “While AQ framed its rationale as the necessity to fight foreign enemies to establish local Islamic states, but the latter are now possible only as long as local groups cease transnational jihad.” A bit more, here.

The strike also seemed to be an apparent vindication of Biden’s “over the horizon” counterterrorism strategy, White House officials told reporters Monday evening. “We showed that, without American forces on the ground in Afghanistan and in harm’s way, we remain able to identify and locate even the world’s most wanted terrorist, and then take action to remove him from the battlefield,” the officials said. 

“The United States did not seek this war against terror,” said President Biden in his televised remarks. “It came to us, and we answered with the same principles and resolve that have shaped us for generation upon generation: to protect the innocent, defend liberty, and we keep the light of freedom burning—a beacon for the rest of the entire world.”

For your ears only: There’s a new podcast about the seemingly fraught future of Afghanistan and its 40 million people, from Afghan-British journalist Nelufar Hedayat and PRX. It’s called “Kabul Falling,” and the first two episodes—entitled “The Fall,” and “A Knock at the Door”—were just posted on Monday. 

One more thing: America’s Afghan reconstruction watchdog, SIGAR, just released its latest quarterly report, covering events spanning April 1 to June 30. Among some of the findings: 

  • “18.9 million Afghans will continue to face potentially life-threatening levels of hunger—nearly six million of whom will face near-famine conditions”;
  • Ghor province is facing “catastrophe/famine conditions” that affect about 20,000 people;
  • Women must cover themselves completely when they leave the house, just as in the days right before the U.S. invaded more than two decades ago. Read over the full report (PDF), here

What are your thoughts when it comes to Afghanistan’s future? Drop us a line and let us know as we approach this one-year anniversary of the Taliban’s steep and sudden rise back to power in Kabul. 


From Defense One

SOCOM Orders Cropduster Attack Planes from L3Harris Technologies // Marcus Weisgerber: The contract, which could grow to 75 aircraft, marks a major victory for proponents of prop-driven close air support.

Al Qaeda Leader Killed In US Drone Strike, Biden Says // Jacqueline Feldscher: The strike “made good” on Biden’s promise to target terrorists after withdrawing from Afghanistan, an official said.

Coast Guard Wants Better Internet on Its Ships, and More Recruits // Lauren C. Williams: Commandant Fagan ties increased connectivity to operational needs and improving Coasties’ quality of life.

U.S. Announces Another $550M In Ukraine Military Aid  // Tara Copp and Jacqueline Feldscher: Funds will cover thousands of additional howitzer and HIMARS ammunition rounds

House’s ‘Irregular Warfare’ Provision Risks Unintended War // Katherine Yon Ebright: It’s not clear how many of the lawmakers who passed the House defense policy bill were aware of a dangerous provision in it.

Welcome to this Tuesday edition of The D Brief, brought to you by Ben Watson with Jennifer Hlad. If you’re not already subscribed to The D Brief, you can do that here. And check out other Defense One newsletters here. On this day in 1990, Saddam Hussein’s Iraqi military invaded Kuwait.


Destination: Taiwan. U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D.-Calif., does indeed appear to be heading for Taepei’s Songshan Airport, according to a flight plan made public recently and flagged on Twitter by local reporter Tingting Liu.
Already, Taiwan’s tallest building is lit with a welcoming message, including the words “Speaker Pelosi”, “Welcome to TW”, “Thank you”, according to Tingting, who shared images here.
The U.S. Navy has three carriers fairly close, “just outside the South China Sea,” according to Sam Lagrone of the U.S. Naval Institute News. That lineup includes the USS Reagan (CVN-76), USS America (LHA-6), and USS Tripoli (LHA-7). The “Official line is ‘normal operations,’” Lagrone tweeted, “but one defense official said the assets—already in the neighborhood—were hanging out to see what was gonna happen.”
ICYMI: The Chinese navy recently announced five days of live-fire exercises in the South China Sea, Bill Birtles of the Australian Broadcasting Corporation tweeted Monday, and shared maps posted by Beijing. Another China-watcher shared alleged satellite imagery of a Chinese carrier on the move near Hainan Island around July 31. Another user has shared video of apparent Chinese military vehicles on the move along the beach and by rail in the Taiwan-adjacent Chinese city of Xiamen.
Said U.S.-based China-watcher Bonnie Glaser: “The probability of war or a serious incident is low,” she tweeted Monday. “But the probability that the [People’s Republic of China] will take a series of military, economic, and diplomatic actions to show strength and resolve is not insignificant. Likely it will seek to punish Taiwan in myriad ways.”
Rewind: Back in 1991, Pelosi unfurled a pro-democracy banner in Beijing’s Tiananmen Square—before Chinese officials interrupted the scene, which was caught on camera and shared on Twitter just last week by CNN’s Kevin Liptak. Catch that 33-second clip, here.

X
This website uses cookies to enhance user experience and to analyze performance and traffic on our website. We also share information about your use of our site with our social media, advertising and analytics partners. Learn More / Do Not Sell My Personal Information
Accept Cookies
X
Cookie Preferences Cookie List

Do Not Sell My Personal Information

When you visit our website, we store cookies on your browser to collect information. The information collected might relate to you, your preferences or your device, and is mostly used to make the site work as you expect it to and to provide a more personalized web experience. However, you can choose not to allow certain types of cookies, which may impact your experience of the site and the services we are able to offer. Click on the different category headings to find out more and change our default settings according to your preference. You cannot opt-out of our First Party Strictly Necessary Cookies as they are deployed in order to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting the cookie banner and remembering your settings, to log into your account, to redirect you when you log out, etc.). For more information about the First and Third Party Cookies used please follow this link.

Allow All Cookies

Manage Consent Preferences

Strictly Necessary Cookies - Always Active

We do not allow you to opt-out of our certain cookies, as they are necessary to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting our cookie banner and remembering your privacy choices) and/or to monitor site performance. These cookies are not used in a way that constitutes a “sale” of your data under the CCPA. You can set your browser to block or alert you about these cookies, but some parts of the site will not work as intended if you do so. You can usually find these settings in the Options or Preferences menu of your browser. Visit www.allaboutcookies.org to learn more.

Sale of Personal Data, Targeting & Social Media Cookies

Under the California Consumer Privacy Act, you have the right to opt-out of the sale of your personal information to third parties. These cookies collect information for analytics and to personalize your experience with targeted ads. You may exercise your right to opt out of the sale of personal information by using this toggle switch. If you opt out we will not be able to offer you personalised ads and will not hand over your personal information to any third parties. Additionally, you may contact our legal department for further clarification about your rights as a California consumer by using this Exercise My Rights link

If you have enabled privacy controls on your browser (such as a plugin), we have to take that as a valid request to opt-out. Therefore we would not be able to track your activity through the web. This may affect our ability to personalize ads according to your preferences.

Targeting cookies may be set through our site by our advertising partners. They may be used by those companies to build a profile of your interests and show you relevant adverts on other sites. They do not store directly personal information, but are based on uniquely identifying your browser and internet device. If you do not allow these cookies, you will experience less targeted advertising.

Social media cookies are set by a range of social media services that we have added to the site to enable you to share our content with your friends and networks. They are capable of tracking your browser across other sites and building up a profile of your interests. This may impact the content and messages you see on other websites you visit. If you do not allow these cookies you may not be able to use or see these sharing tools.

If you want to opt out of all of our lead reports and lists, please submit a privacy request at our Do Not Sell page.

Save Settings
Cookie Preferences Cookie List

Cookie List

A cookie is a small piece of data (text file) that a website – when visited by a user – asks your browser to store on your device in order to remember information about you, such as your language preference or login information. Those cookies are set by us and called first-party cookies. We also use third-party cookies – which are cookies from a domain different than the domain of the website you are visiting – for our advertising and marketing efforts. More specifically, we use cookies and other tracking technologies for the following purposes:

Strictly Necessary Cookies

We do not allow you to opt-out of our certain cookies, as they are necessary to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting our cookie banner and remembering your privacy choices) and/or to monitor site performance. These cookies are not used in a way that constitutes a “sale” of your data under the CCPA. You can set your browser to block or alert you about these cookies, but some parts of the site will not work as intended if you do so. You can usually find these settings in the Options or Preferences menu of your browser. Visit www.allaboutcookies.org to learn more.

Functional Cookies

We do not allow you to opt-out of our certain cookies, as they are necessary to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting our cookie banner and remembering your privacy choices) and/or to monitor site performance. These cookies are not used in a way that constitutes a “sale” of your data under the CCPA. You can set your browser to block or alert you about these cookies, but some parts of the site will not work as intended if you do so. You can usually find these settings in the Options or Preferences menu of your browser. Visit www.allaboutcookies.org to learn more.

Performance Cookies

We do not allow you to opt-out of our certain cookies, as they are necessary to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting our cookie banner and remembering your privacy choices) and/or to monitor site performance. These cookies are not used in a way that constitutes a “sale” of your data under the CCPA. You can set your browser to block or alert you about these cookies, but some parts of the site will not work as intended if you do so. You can usually find these settings in the Options or Preferences menu of your browser. Visit www.allaboutcookies.org to learn more.

Sale of Personal Data

We also use cookies to personalize your experience on our websites, including by determining the most relevant content and advertisements to show you, and to monitor site traffic and performance, so that we may improve our websites and your experience. You may opt out of our use of such cookies (and the associated “sale” of your Personal Information) by using this toggle switch. You will still see some advertising, regardless of your selection. Because we do not track you across different devices, browsers and GEMG properties, your selection will take effect only on this browser, this device and this website.

Social Media Cookies

We also use cookies to personalize your experience on our websites, including by determining the most relevant content and advertisements to show you, and to monitor site traffic and performance, so that we may improve our websites and your experience. You may opt out of our use of such cookies (and the associated “sale” of your Personal Information) by using this toggle switch. You will still see some advertising, regardless of your selection. Because we do not track you across different devices, browsers and GEMG properties, your selection will take effect only on this browser, this device and this website.

Targeting Cookies

We also use cookies to personalize your experience on our websites, including by determining the most relevant content and advertisements to show you, and to monitor site traffic and performance, so that we may improve our websites and your experience. You may opt out of our use of such cookies (and the associated “sale” of your Personal Information) by using this toggle switch. You will still see some advertising, regardless of your selection. Because we do not track you across different devices, browsers and GEMG properties, your selection will take effect only on this browser, this device and this website.