US has too few interceptors to deter war with China, experts say

The United States would run out of the interceptors it needs to take down Chinese missiles “within days” of a conflict, according to a new report from the Heritage Foundation. It's the latest in a series of warnings from experts and commanders highlighting a critical gap. 

The White House, Congress, and defense contractors have taken steps to address it. But the ongoing war with Iran has exposed those efforts as insufficient, experts say.

It’s not a new problem. A 2023 report from the Center for Strategic and International Studies concluded that the U.S. would “within the first week of a Taiwan conflict” run out of key munitions, such as Patriot Advanced Capability-3 Missile Segment Enhancements, Terminal High Altitude Area Defense interceptors, and SM-6 and SM-3 Standard missiles. In May, CSIS reported that the United States will be in “a window of vulnerability for several years, until inventories return to their previous levels, and another several years before they get to the levels that war planners desire.” 

The Trump administration is trying to wring more production out of industry. In January, the White House cut a deal with Lockheed Martin intended to triple annual production of PAC-3 missiles to 2,000. On Monday, the Pentagon announced a related seven-year, $3 billion deal with Lockheed and Northrop Grumman to boost the production of PAC-3 solid rocket motors. The deal is also intended to help “quadruple” annual production of THAAD interceptors.

A Northrop spokesperson said a billion-dollar investment in its Allegany Ballistics Laboratory has enabled the company to double annual production of motors since 2021, and that the company aims to triple production by 2027.

And yet these deals—and the goals the Pentagon set in January—are too small to quickly restore an arsenal depleted by Trump's war on Iran. “Those metrics that were set prior to [Operation Epic Fury]. That was before we just lit off billions of dollars in a decade worth of production per work in some cases,” said Tom Karako, who leads CSIS' Missile Defense Project.

The Heritage report makes its own estimate of weapons expended in the war: “During the first four days of Operation Epic Fury, U.S. and allied forces used approximately 1,738 theater surface-to-air munitions to defend against 565 Iranian ballistic missiles and 57 cruise missiles.” 

The report says the Pentagon currently has “less than 10 percent" of the PAC-3 MSE, THAAD, SM-6, and SM-3 interceptors "required to deter or, if necessary, prevail, in a protracted, high-intensity conflict with China.”

The Heritage report is dire, but it may not go far enough, as it does not factor in how China may use low-cost drone warfare to further frustrate U.S. operations in the region. 

In an April hearing, U.S. Indo-Pacific Command leader Adm. Sam Paparo also communicated his concerns about missile shortfalls and a lack of solutions for countering cheap drones. “Current production timelines are misaligned with operational expenditures and the threats we face,” Paparo said.

Ukraine's shortage of Patriot interceptor missiles is reducing its ability to fight off Russian ballistic missiles. On July 28, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy met with Lockheed Martin representatives to discuss the possibility of license-building a Ukrainian version of the PAC-3. But such an agreement would not produce usable missiles until 2030. 

The White House has gone back and forth on the issue. But Ukraine has gotten further with President Donald Trump than it did with his predecessor, Zelenskyy said in May: “I started this conversation with President Biden and I will continue with President Trump. Ukraine has not received a license to manufacture PAC-3. I believe that in the future, perhaps we will obtain one or there will be our own system.”