A MQ-9 Reaper taxis in at Holloman Air Force Base, N.M., April 24, 2013.

A MQ-9 Reaper taxis in at Holloman Air Force Base, N.M., April 24, 2013. U.S. Air Force photo/Senior Airman Andrew Lee

Time to Get Ready for War in the Robotic Age

The U.S. must prepare now for a world of widely proliferated military robotics. By Shawn Brimley and Paul Scharre

The United States military’s dominance in conventional warfare is virtually unparalleled in history. But defense planners are now confronted by a rapidly approaching future in which the technologies behind that superiority – guided munitions, sensors and networks – have proliferated widely and are employed by both state and none-state actors. However, that shift is just a predicate challenge to a potentially deeper revolution afoot -- an entirely new war-fighting regime in which unmanned and autonomous systems will play a central role. The U.S. must begin preparing now for this not-so-distant future. The U.S. must prepare for war in the robotic age.

Unmanned systems are familiar to the U.S. military, which has employed them in extensive and sometimes dramatic fashion during the last decade. But these largely remotely piloted air and ground vehicles will soon be replaced by increasingly autonomous systems operating in all domains and across the full range of military operations. These systems will offer tremendous operational advantages and, because they can be built to take greater risk than manned systems, can be made cheap, expendable and numerous.

Unlike the technological advances of the Cold War, like stealth, advanced sensors and the global positioning system, the movement toward the robotic age is not being led by America’s military-industrial complex. While defense companies are developing advanced, stealthy drones and protected communications, commercial companies producing consumer goods and business-to-business services are driving the information revolution. Advanced computing, “big data,” autonomy, artificial intelligence, neural networks, miniaturization, additive manufacturing and high-density power storage are all being driven by the commercial sector. These technologies and the advanced robotic systems they enable will therefore be available to potential adversaries, state and non-state alike. From Hezbollah’s use of rudimentary drones to enter Israeli airspace, to China’s use of unmanned aircraft near the Japanese-controlled Senkaku islands, the strategic and operational value of robotic systems virtually ensures their wide proliferation.

The robotics revolution will happen. Whether U.S. defense policymakers choose to invest in it and compete for leadership in the emerging regime is an open question.  

We must begin now preparing for a world of widely proliferated military robotics and the operational, strategy and policy challenges they will bring. While many drones today are remotely operated, future systems will be largely autonomous, allowing human operators to control several drones or perhaps even large swarms of them at a time. In that fully-realized, robotic environment, mass once again becomes dominant. Cost-exchange ratios and salvo density will become more important than expensive, “baroque” multi-mission platforms. With military power decoupling from traditional drivers of power – like gross domestic product or population size – small technologically-advanced states or even non-state actors could eventually field robotic systems at a size and scale that could radically reshape military competitions in key regions.

Networked autonomous systems will be capable of faster, more coordinated maneuver than possible with manned systems, raising challenging issues about the balance of autonomy and human control. Unmanned systems may reduce the threshold for use of force, with attendant challenges in crisis stability, war powers and civil-military relations. Autonomous weapons could have profound advantages on the battlefield, but could spark an accidental war.

The U.S. defense community needs to begin exploring new concepts of operation, red and blue approaches, cost-imposing strategies and countermeasures. Advances in materials science, cyber, electric weapons and other technologies will have profound consequences for how this new regime emerges, but the most important factors will be the doctrine, training, and organizational structures needed to exploit these new capabilities.

These technological innovations will not make war cheap, easy or bloodless. Indeed, a world of widely proliferated unmanned and autonomous systems will be extremely dangerous for U.S. forces. Information age warfare will not ensure we can peer through the fog of war. Rather, networks and human controllers will be overwhelmed with the deluge of data from unmanned systems and sensors, and sorting the signal from the noise will be increasingly difficult. Units will have to fight for information without information. Commanders will need to be adaptable and flexible enough to operate with massive bandwidth or no connectivity at all. Command-and-control networks will need to be resilient against cyber intrusion and able to continue operation in the face of uncertainty and false data. Future conflicts may begin and accelerate quickly, but they may not end so quickly, and nothing about them is likely to be easy.

The Center for a New American Security has launched a new, multi-year initiative to explore these and other issues about how emerging technologies will shape the future of warfare. Dubbed “20YY” to avoid needless debates about when this regime will come to fruition, we aim to build a community of interest that will deliver actionable, practical recommendations to stakeholders today. U.S. and allied defense leaders will need to begin planning now if we are to succeed in meeting the challenges to come.

Shawn Brimley is executive vice president & director of studies at the Center for a New American Security (CNAS). Paul Scharre is a fellow and director of the 20YY Warfare Initiative, at CNAS. 

X
This website uses cookies to enhance user experience and to analyze performance and traffic on our website. We also share information about your use of our site with our social media, advertising and analytics partners. Learn More / Do Not Sell My Personal Information
Accept Cookies
X
Cookie Preferences Cookie List

Do Not Sell My Personal Information

When you visit our website, we store cookies on your browser to collect information. The information collected might relate to you, your preferences or your device, and is mostly used to make the site work as you expect it to and to provide a more personalized web experience. However, you can choose not to allow certain types of cookies, which may impact your experience of the site and the services we are able to offer. Click on the different category headings to find out more and change our default settings according to your preference. You cannot opt-out of our First Party Strictly Necessary Cookies as they are deployed in order to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting the cookie banner and remembering your settings, to log into your account, to redirect you when you log out, etc.). For more information about the First and Third Party Cookies used please follow this link.

Allow All Cookies

Manage Consent Preferences

Strictly Necessary Cookies - Always Active

We do not allow you to opt-out of our certain cookies, as they are necessary to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting our cookie banner and remembering your privacy choices) and/or to monitor site performance. These cookies are not used in a way that constitutes a “sale” of your data under the CCPA. You can set your browser to block or alert you about these cookies, but some parts of the site will not work as intended if you do so. You can usually find these settings in the Options or Preferences menu of your browser. Visit www.allaboutcookies.org to learn more.

Sale of Personal Data, Targeting & Social Media Cookies

Under the California Consumer Privacy Act, you have the right to opt-out of the sale of your personal information to third parties. These cookies collect information for analytics and to personalize your experience with targeted ads. You may exercise your right to opt out of the sale of personal information by using this toggle switch. If you opt out we will not be able to offer you personalised ads and will not hand over your personal information to any third parties. Additionally, you may contact our legal department for further clarification about your rights as a California consumer by using this Exercise My Rights link

If you have enabled privacy controls on your browser (such as a plugin), we have to take that as a valid request to opt-out. Therefore we would not be able to track your activity through the web. This may affect our ability to personalize ads according to your preferences.

Targeting cookies may be set through our site by our advertising partners. They may be used by those companies to build a profile of your interests and show you relevant adverts on other sites. They do not store directly personal information, but are based on uniquely identifying your browser and internet device. If you do not allow these cookies, you will experience less targeted advertising.

Social media cookies are set by a range of social media services that we have added to the site to enable you to share our content with your friends and networks. They are capable of tracking your browser across other sites and building up a profile of your interests. This may impact the content and messages you see on other websites you visit. If you do not allow these cookies you may not be able to use or see these sharing tools.

If you want to opt out of all of our lead reports and lists, please submit a privacy request at our Do Not Sell page.

Save Settings
Cookie Preferences Cookie List

Cookie List

A cookie is a small piece of data (text file) that a website – when visited by a user – asks your browser to store on your device in order to remember information about you, such as your language preference or login information. Those cookies are set by us and called first-party cookies. We also use third-party cookies – which are cookies from a domain different than the domain of the website you are visiting – for our advertising and marketing efforts. More specifically, we use cookies and other tracking technologies for the following purposes:

Strictly Necessary Cookies

We do not allow you to opt-out of our certain cookies, as they are necessary to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting our cookie banner and remembering your privacy choices) and/or to monitor site performance. These cookies are not used in a way that constitutes a “sale” of your data under the CCPA. You can set your browser to block or alert you about these cookies, but some parts of the site will not work as intended if you do so. You can usually find these settings in the Options or Preferences menu of your browser. Visit www.allaboutcookies.org to learn more.

Functional Cookies

We do not allow you to opt-out of our certain cookies, as they are necessary to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting our cookie banner and remembering your privacy choices) and/or to monitor site performance. These cookies are not used in a way that constitutes a “sale” of your data under the CCPA. You can set your browser to block or alert you about these cookies, but some parts of the site will not work as intended if you do so. You can usually find these settings in the Options or Preferences menu of your browser. Visit www.allaboutcookies.org to learn more.

Performance Cookies

We do not allow you to opt-out of our certain cookies, as they are necessary to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting our cookie banner and remembering your privacy choices) and/or to monitor site performance. These cookies are not used in a way that constitutes a “sale” of your data under the CCPA. You can set your browser to block or alert you about these cookies, but some parts of the site will not work as intended if you do so. You can usually find these settings in the Options or Preferences menu of your browser. Visit www.allaboutcookies.org to learn more.

Sale of Personal Data

We also use cookies to personalize your experience on our websites, including by determining the most relevant content and advertisements to show you, and to monitor site traffic and performance, so that we may improve our websites and your experience. You may opt out of our use of such cookies (and the associated “sale” of your Personal Information) by using this toggle switch. You will still see some advertising, regardless of your selection. Because we do not track you across different devices, browsers and GEMG properties, your selection will take effect only on this browser, this device and this website.

Social Media Cookies

We also use cookies to personalize your experience on our websites, including by determining the most relevant content and advertisements to show you, and to monitor site traffic and performance, so that we may improve our websites and your experience. You may opt out of our use of such cookies (and the associated “sale” of your Personal Information) by using this toggle switch. You will still see some advertising, regardless of your selection. Because we do not track you across different devices, browsers and GEMG properties, your selection will take effect only on this browser, this device and this website.

Targeting Cookies

We also use cookies to personalize your experience on our websites, including by determining the most relevant content and advertisements to show you, and to monitor site traffic and performance, so that we may improve our websites and your experience. You may opt out of our use of such cookies (and the associated “sale” of your Personal Information) by using this toggle switch. You will still see some advertising, regardless of your selection. Because we do not track you across different devices, browsers and GEMG properties, your selection will take effect only on this browser, this device and this website.