A South Korean student walks by a picture, which shows how the cyber warfare is going to be waged in the future in the Korean Peninsula if Korean War takes place, at Korea War Memorial Museum in Seoul, South Korea, Dec. 23, 2014.

A South Korean student walks by a picture, which shows how the cyber warfare is going to be waged in the future in the Korean Peninsula if Korean War takes place, at Korea War Memorial Museum in Seoul, South Korea, Dec. 23, 2014. Ahn Young-joon/AP

How To Avoid All-Out War in Cyberspace

While some fear the Internet will be a primary battlefield for future societies, this alarmism is a bit premature.

Restraint is the strategic underpinning of how many states confront cyber actions. Despite calls for a response to cyber aggression, the U.S. government still has not decided on a viable reaction given limited options. As David Sanger recounts in the New York Times , “in a series of classified meetings, officials have struggled to choose among options that range from largely symbolic responses … to more significant actions that some officials fear could lead to an escalation of the hacking conflict between the two countries.”

Strategic restraint tends to defy a form of conventional wisdom that sees the future of cyberspace as a lawless wild west where anything goes and offensive capabilities need to be built up in order to deter an adversary. This defines the tone of the New York Times story. In fact, some of the most cantankerous states in cyberspace tend to behave in a responsible manner because to act otherwise would invite terrible consequences.

Why do governments tend to not respond to cyber actions? According to our research , despite the massive influx of cyber operations that we are aware of we find little evidence of the escalation processes inherent in typical conflicts. In fact, we might be witnessing an era of cyberpeace . States operating in cyberspace react differently than in most strategic domains, a reality that drastically differs from perception given the way the news media reports the latest cyber violation as if it is the spark of a new onslaught and validation of the concept of cyberwar. There are two reasons for this: the dynamics of restraint and the development of cyber norms.

Restraint Dynamics

It’s easy to assume that the United States and other nations would “hack back” when their systems are targeted by adversaries. In fact, many private companies are moving towards this position after their networks are compromised. Yet government officials tend to understand something that private individuals do not: the inner workings of a bureaucracy are complex and dangerous. Needlessly provoking an escalatory response in a domain where both sides are wholly unprotected and borderline incompetent would be strategic suicide. For this simple reason we often see restraint. There is also the reality states will spy on each other, and sometimes even admire their adversaries’ work.

The U.S. government has so far refrained from responding to the OPM hack. If there is a response, we predict it will likely come through criminal charges on individuals, not the Chinese state. In fact, the great majority of cyber incidents in our data go without a response in the cyber or the conventional domains. A total of seventy-eight percent of cyber actions we code go without a counterstrike. Of those with responses, seventeen (fifteen percent) come in the form of a cyber response—with only two cases of escalation in severity—and seven conventional responses (six percent). The non-response is the typical response, by an overwhelming margin.

Building a System of Norms

The lack of escalatory activity can also be explained by a system of norms the United States and others seek to enforce in cyberspace. Like traffic laws, a basic understanding of how things work and what limitations exist benefit everyone. Of course there will be violators, but everyone needs to understand the rules of the road first. Even China and Russia appear to be willing to work within some system of norms, though they disagree with the United States on what the norms should be. Nevertheless, Russia and China are engaging in norms-setting institutions and process, such as the devolution of the Internet Corporation for Assigned Names and Numbers, recognizing that a rules-based framework is important to manage the growth of global connectivity.

While many may scoff at the idea of norms, they can be effective means to control the basic behaviors of the majority of actors. Of course there will always be deviants, but as long as we have clear systems of norms, deviancy will be seen as just that—out of the norm.

What Does the Future Hold?

This all bodes very well for our cyber future. While there is fear that the Internet will be primary threat vector for future societies, this alarmism is a bit premature and primarily based on the lack of understanding of how cyberspace works. We fear what we do not understand. Cyberspace can be controlled and made safe, but this requires us to understand it, to be aware of the possible escalation dynamics at hand in each conflict, and to be take in all available sources of information instead of relying on a few. Given the convergence of the basics of restraint and norms, even the most aggressive of states can be shown to be peaceful actors in cyberspace, even when being poked.

This post appears courtesy of CFR.org .

X
This website uses cookies to enhance user experience and to analyze performance and traffic on our website. We also share information about your use of our site with our social media, advertising and analytics partners. Learn More / Do Not Sell My Personal Information
Accept Cookies
X
Cookie Preferences Cookie List

Do Not Sell My Personal Information

When you visit our website, we store cookies on your browser to collect information. The information collected might relate to you, your preferences or your device, and is mostly used to make the site work as you expect it to and to provide a more personalized web experience. However, you can choose not to allow certain types of cookies, which may impact your experience of the site and the services we are able to offer. Click on the different category headings to find out more and change our default settings according to your preference. You cannot opt-out of our First Party Strictly Necessary Cookies as they are deployed in order to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting the cookie banner and remembering your settings, to log into your account, to redirect you when you log out, etc.). For more information about the First and Third Party Cookies used please follow this link.

Allow All Cookies

Manage Consent Preferences

Strictly Necessary Cookies - Always Active

We do not allow you to opt-out of our certain cookies, as they are necessary to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting our cookie banner and remembering your privacy choices) and/or to monitor site performance. These cookies are not used in a way that constitutes a “sale” of your data under the CCPA. You can set your browser to block or alert you about these cookies, but some parts of the site will not work as intended if you do so. You can usually find these settings in the Options or Preferences menu of your browser. Visit www.allaboutcookies.org to learn more.

Sale of Personal Data, Targeting & Social Media Cookies

Under the California Consumer Privacy Act, you have the right to opt-out of the sale of your personal information to third parties. These cookies collect information for analytics and to personalize your experience with targeted ads. You may exercise your right to opt out of the sale of personal information by using this toggle switch. If you opt out we will not be able to offer you personalised ads and will not hand over your personal information to any third parties. Additionally, you may contact our legal department for further clarification about your rights as a California consumer by using this Exercise My Rights link

If you have enabled privacy controls on your browser (such as a plugin), we have to take that as a valid request to opt-out. Therefore we would not be able to track your activity through the web. This may affect our ability to personalize ads according to your preferences.

Targeting cookies may be set through our site by our advertising partners. They may be used by those companies to build a profile of your interests and show you relevant adverts on other sites. They do not store directly personal information, but are based on uniquely identifying your browser and internet device. If you do not allow these cookies, you will experience less targeted advertising.

Social media cookies are set by a range of social media services that we have added to the site to enable you to share our content with your friends and networks. They are capable of tracking your browser across other sites and building up a profile of your interests. This may impact the content and messages you see on other websites you visit. If you do not allow these cookies you may not be able to use or see these sharing tools.

If you want to opt out of all of our lead reports and lists, please submit a privacy request at our Do Not Sell page.

Save Settings
Cookie Preferences Cookie List

Cookie List

A cookie is a small piece of data (text file) that a website – when visited by a user – asks your browser to store on your device in order to remember information about you, such as your language preference or login information. Those cookies are set by us and called first-party cookies. We also use third-party cookies – which are cookies from a domain different than the domain of the website you are visiting – for our advertising and marketing efforts. More specifically, we use cookies and other tracking technologies for the following purposes:

Strictly Necessary Cookies

We do not allow you to opt-out of our certain cookies, as they are necessary to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting our cookie banner and remembering your privacy choices) and/or to monitor site performance. These cookies are not used in a way that constitutes a “sale” of your data under the CCPA. You can set your browser to block or alert you about these cookies, but some parts of the site will not work as intended if you do so. You can usually find these settings in the Options or Preferences menu of your browser. Visit www.allaboutcookies.org to learn more.

Functional Cookies

We do not allow you to opt-out of our certain cookies, as they are necessary to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting our cookie banner and remembering your privacy choices) and/or to monitor site performance. These cookies are not used in a way that constitutes a “sale” of your data under the CCPA. You can set your browser to block or alert you about these cookies, but some parts of the site will not work as intended if you do so. You can usually find these settings in the Options or Preferences menu of your browser. Visit www.allaboutcookies.org to learn more.

Performance Cookies

We do not allow you to opt-out of our certain cookies, as they are necessary to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting our cookie banner and remembering your privacy choices) and/or to monitor site performance. These cookies are not used in a way that constitutes a “sale” of your data under the CCPA. You can set your browser to block or alert you about these cookies, but some parts of the site will not work as intended if you do so. You can usually find these settings in the Options or Preferences menu of your browser. Visit www.allaboutcookies.org to learn more.

Sale of Personal Data

We also use cookies to personalize your experience on our websites, including by determining the most relevant content and advertisements to show you, and to monitor site traffic and performance, so that we may improve our websites and your experience. You may opt out of our use of such cookies (and the associated “sale” of your Personal Information) by using this toggle switch. You will still see some advertising, regardless of your selection. Because we do not track you across different devices, browsers and GEMG properties, your selection will take effect only on this browser, this device and this website.

Social Media Cookies

We also use cookies to personalize your experience on our websites, including by determining the most relevant content and advertisements to show you, and to monitor site traffic and performance, so that we may improve our websites and your experience. You may opt out of our use of such cookies (and the associated “sale” of your Personal Information) by using this toggle switch. You will still see some advertising, regardless of your selection. Because we do not track you across different devices, browsers and GEMG properties, your selection will take effect only on this browser, this device and this website.

Targeting Cookies

We also use cookies to personalize your experience on our websites, including by determining the most relevant content and advertisements to show you, and to monitor site traffic and performance, so that we may improve our websites and your experience. You may opt out of our use of such cookies (and the associated “sale” of your Personal Information) by using this toggle switch. You will still see some advertising, regardless of your selection. Because we do not track you across different devices, browsers and GEMG properties, your selection will take effect only on this browser, this device and this website.