An operational test launch of an unarmed Minuteman III intercontinental ballistic missile from Vandenberg Air Force Base, Calif., is seen from nearby Lompoc, Calif., Sept. 26, 2013.

An operational test launch of an unarmed Minuteman III intercontinental ballistic missile from Vandenberg Air Force Base, Calif., is seen from nearby Lompoc, Calif., Sept. 26, 2013. Courtesy photo by Lt. Col. Andy Wulfestieg

Obama Is About To Launch A New Nuclear Arms Race. There’s a Better Way.

Despite his anti-nuclear words, the president is about to cave to the nuclear arms priesthood.

The United States is on the cusp of launching an unnecessary, expensive, and potentially dangerous plan to modernize its strategic nuclear forces, helping stimulate what is being called a “new nuclear arms race.” Before Washington starts down this path, it needs to step back and ask, “How much is enough?” or, as the Cold War adage went, “How high do we need to make the rubble bounce? The United States can deter any country from using nuclear weapons against America and its treaty allies with a nuclear force that is far smaller, less destabilizing, and less expensive than the one the Pentagon is planning to build.

This October will mark the 30th anniversary of the Reykjavik Summit, where President Ronald Reagan and then-Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev came close to abolishing nuclear weapons. Six years ago, President Barack Obama made the same commitment.  But today,

 a quarter-century after the dissolution of the Soviet Union and the end of the Cold War, the United States is planning to spend $1 trillion over the next three decades to replace or upgrade virtually all of its strategic nuclear weapons. At the same time, Russia also has undertaken ambitious plans to upgrade its strategic nuclear forces with new multi-warhead missiles, aircraft, submarines, and even a rumored nuclear underwater drone. 

Former Defense Secretary William Perry, who lived through the last nuclear build-up, argues that the resumption of strategic nuclear competition will waste vast sums of money; worse, it will not only fail to provide greater security for either country, but also exacerbate growing tensions between them and make their relationship less stable.

The administration’s nuclear plan is a serious walk-back on the president’s original commitment.

The only credible and legitimate mission for nuclear weapons is to deter a nuclear attack on the United States or on treaty allies (“extended deterrence’). For these missions, the United States, as President Obama declared in 2013, only needs to maintain a force of 1,000 deployed strategic warheads, instead of the 1,550 it is allowed under New START. 

The president’s nuclear math is fine—the mistake he made was deciding to maintain a smaller force by modernizing every leg of the nuclear triad for the next 30 years: a next-generation strategic bomber, a new generation of nuclear submarines armed with Trident missiles, and an upgrade of land-based ICBMs, along with modernization of the air-delivered B-61 bomb and development of a new nuclear cruise missile for the strategic bomber force.

Instead, to produce greater stability, lower the risks of an arms race, and conserve resources, the Pentagon should immediately retire the 500 land-based ICBMs. As fixed targets, they are vulnerable to attack and therefore only useful if launched first. They add only 500 reentry vehicles to the U.S. strategic force.

Whether to repurpose the strategic bomber force for exclusively conventional missions is a more difficult issue. Bombers, some analysts argue, give the triad flexibility, as they provide an opportunity to signal resolve in a crisis and additional targeting options. However, that very flexibility may actually weaken deterrence, causing a reaction by the adversary that leads to a first strike or a direct attack on the bombers themselves. In addition, the accuracy today of high explosive conventional weapons on a bomber may make nuclearization unnecessary. At the very least, a decision should be made to defer spending $10 billion to add strategic nuclear capabilities to the next-generation bomber, since the current bomber fleet provides adequate capability. 

It is neither necessary nor economical to invest in a new long-range strategic bomber when the fleet of B-52s can operate effectively for at least another 20 years.

The United States would get more usable bang for the buck if the entire strategic bomber force were gradually converted for conventional missions over the next decade. It is neither necessary nor economical to invest in a new long-range strategic bomber when the fleet of B-52s can operate effectively for at least another 20 years. The Pentagon should also scrap plans to modernize the B-61 nuclear bomb and develop a new nuclear cruise missile for the strategic bombers. The older but refurbished B61 models are more than adequate, and nuclear cruise missiles, because they are indistinguishable from conventionally armed cruise missiles, could actually lower the threshold for nuclear use.

The most expensive but most stable leg of the nuclear triad is the fleet of stealthy and highly survivable ballistic missile submarines, which provides the National Command Authority with a great deal of targeting flexibility. However, the Navy’s plan to build 12 new SSBNs exceeds the needs of deterrence. Each new sub will carry 16 missiles that can be loaded with  up to 8 independently targetable warheads for a maximum total capability of 1,500 nuclear warheads. Some experts worry that relying exclusively on SSBNs for nuclear deterrence will cause a loss of redundancy in the force if there is an across the board failure in both warheads for the Trident missiles or a catastrophic breakthrough in Russian anti-submarine warfare capabilities. But the risk of these developments is extremely remote in light of the heavy investment the United States makes in its nuclear stockpile stewardship program and in preventing Russian breakthroughs—and certainly not high enough to justify the additional expenditures.

There are multiple reasons to cut back on the existing modernization plan. Eight or nine submarines, plus several thousand strategic warheads in reserve, are more than adequate for the deterrence mission.  Eliminating the ICBM and ultimately the nuclear bomber forces could free up as much as $60 billion over the next ten years, savings that could be applied to buying the forces appropriate to our real defense challenges. At minimal risk to U.S. security, it could offer an opportunity to open conversations with the Russians about mutual restraint and a renewed effort to reduce the two largest strategic nuclear forces in the world. 

The administration’s nuclear plan is a serious walk-back on the president’s original commitment. It would keep strategic warheads within the New START limits, but at an unnecessarily high cost and with an increased risk of strategic instability. This White House has caved to the nuclear priesthood in the bureaucracy. Instead of staying on nuclear autopilot, the next  administration needs to fundamentally rethink the role of nuclear weapons in U.S. national security strategy, the costs of implementing the current strategic force modernization program, and the alternatives that could provide greater stability and less risk of nuclear conflict at a much lower cost.

X
This website uses cookies to enhance user experience and to analyze performance and traffic on our website. We also share information about your use of our site with our social media, advertising and analytics partners. Learn More / Do Not Sell My Personal Information
Accept Cookies
X
Cookie Preferences Cookie List

Do Not Sell My Personal Information

When you visit our website, we store cookies on your browser to collect information. The information collected might relate to you, your preferences or your device, and is mostly used to make the site work as you expect it to and to provide a more personalized web experience. However, you can choose not to allow certain types of cookies, which may impact your experience of the site and the services we are able to offer. Click on the different category headings to find out more and change our default settings according to your preference. You cannot opt-out of our First Party Strictly Necessary Cookies as they are deployed in order to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting the cookie banner and remembering your settings, to log into your account, to redirect you when you log out, etc.). For more information about the First and Third Party Cookies used please follow this link.

Allow All Cookies

Manage Consent Preferences

Strictly Necessary Cookies - Always Active

We do not allow you to opt-out of our certain cookies, as they are necessary to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting our cookie banner and remembering your privacy choices) and/or to monitor site performance. These cookies are not used in a way that constitutes a “sale” of your data under the CCPA. You can set your browser to block or alert you about these cookies, but some parts of the site will not work as intended if you do so. You can usually find these settings in the Options or Preferences menu of your browser. Visit www.allaboutcookies.org to learn more.

Sale of Personal Data, Targeting & Social Media Cookies

Under the California Consumer Privacy Act, you have the right to opt-out of the sale of your personal information to third parties. These cookies collect information for analytics and to personalize your experience with targeted ads. You may exercise your right to opt out of the sale of personal information by using this toggle switch. If you opt out we will not be able to offer you personalised ads and will not hand over your personal information to any third parties. Additionally, you may contact our legal department for further clarification about your rights as a California consumer by using this Exercise My Rights link

If you have enabled privacy controls on your browser (such as a plugin), we have to take that as a valid request to opt-out. Therefore we would not be able to track your activity through the web. This may affect our ability to personalize ads according to your preferences.

Targeting cookies may be set through our site by our advertising partners. They may be used by those companies to build a profile of your interests and show you relevant adverts on other sites. They do not store directly personal information, but are based on uniquely identifying your browser and internet device. If you do not allow these cookies, you will experience less targeted advertising.

Social media cookies are set by a range of social media services that we have added to the site to enable you to share our content with your friends and networks. They are capable of tracking your browser across other sites and building up a profile of your interests. This may impact the content and messages you see on other websites you visit. If you do not allow these cookies you may not be able to use or see these sharing tools.

If you want to opt out of all of our lead reports and lists, please submit a privacy request at our Do Not Sell page.

Save Settings
Cookie Preferences Cookie List

Cookie List

A cookie is a small piece of data (text file) that a website – when visited by a user – asks your browser to store on your device in order to remember information about you, such as your language preference or login information. Those cookies are set by us and called first-party cookies. We also use third-party cookies – which are cookies from a domain different than the domain of the website you are visiting – for our advertising and marketing efforts. More specifically, we use cookies and other tracking technologies for the following purposes:

Strictly Necessary Cookies

We do not allow you to opt-out of our certain cookies, as they are necessary to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting our cookie banner and remembering your privacy choices) and/or to monitor site performance. These cookies are not used in a way that constitutes a “sale” of your data under the CCPA. You can set your browser to block or alert you about these cookies, but some parts of the site will not work as intended if you do so. You can usually find these settings in the Options or Preferences menu of your browser. Visit www.allaboutcookies.org to learn more.

Functional Cookies

We do not allow you to opt-out of our certain cookies, as they are necessary to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting our cookie banner and remembering your privacy choices) and/or to monitor site performance. These cookies are not used in a way that constitutes a “sale” of your data under the CCPA. You can set your browser to block or alert you about these cookies, but some parts of the site will not work as intended if you do so. You can usually find these settings in the Options or Preferences menu of your browser. Visit www.allaboutcookies.org to learn more.

Performance Cookies

We do not allow you to opt-out of our certain cookies, as they are necessary to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting our cookie banner and remembering your privacy choices) and/or to monitor site performance. These cookies are not used in a way that constitutes a “sale” of your data under the CCPA. You can set your browser to block or alert you about these cookies, but some parts of the site will not work as intended if you do so. You can usually find these settings in the Options or Preferences menu of your browser. Visit www.allaboutcookies.org to learn more.

Sale of Personal Data

We also use cookies to personalize your experience on our websites, including by determining the most relevant content and advertisements to show you, and to monitor site traffic and performance, so that we may improve our websites and your experience. You may opt out of our use of such cookies (and the associated “sale” of your Personal Information) by using this toggle switch. You will still see some advertising, regardless of your selection. Because we do not track you across different devices, browsers and GEMG properties, your selection will take effect only on this browser, this device and this website.

Social Media Cookies

We also use cookies to personalize your experience on our websites, including by determining the most relevant content and advertisements to show you, and to monitor site traffic and performance, so that we may improve our websites and your experience. You may opt out of our use of such cookies (and the associated “sale” of your Personal Information) by using this toggle switch. You will still see some advertising, regardless of your selection. Because we do not track you across different devices, browsers and GEMG properties, your selection will take effect only on this browser, this device and this website.

Targeting Cookies

We also use cookies to personalize your experience on our websites, including by determining the most relevant content and advertisements to show you, and to monitor site traffic and performance, so that we may improve our websites and your experience. You may opt out of our use of such cookies (and the associated “sale” of your Personal Information) by using this toggle switch. You will still see some advertising, regardless of your selection. Because we do not track you across different devices, browsers and GEMG properties, your selection will take effect only on this browser, this device and this website.