Japanese Coast Guard vessel and boats, rear and right, sail alongside Japanese activists' fishing boat, center with a flag, warning the activists away from a group of disputed islands called Diaoyu by China and Senkaku by Japan, early Sunday Aug 18, 2013.

Japanese Coast Guard vessel and boats, rear and right, sail alongside Japanese activists' fishing boat, center with a flag, warning the activists away from a group of disputed islands called Diaoyu by China and Senkaku by Japan, early Sunday Aug 18, 2013. AP Photo/Emily Wang

Easing A Flashpoint for War in the East China Sea

U.S. leaders must lay the diplomatic groundwork for long-term solutions — or risk falling into conflict, World War I style.

A war between the United States and China, should one occur, is less likely to start like World War II, with a belligerent invading other sovereign nations, and more likely like World War I, when a regional incident involving an allied third party triggered a descent into global catastrophe. The most likely scenario — tensions surrounding North Korea and the South China Sea notwithstanding — is a conflict between China and Japan.

Since 1951, the bilateral Security Treaty Between The United States And Japan has obliged Washington to defend Tokyo should it go to war with, say, China. Japan and China’s historical animosity, which stretches back centuries and reached a head in World War II, is reflected today in each country’s overwhelmingly negative views of the other. In 2012, for example, protesters rioted in the streets of several Chinese cities over Japanese efforts to tighten their grip on the Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea.

These small, uninhabited islands, called the Diaoyu chain by the Chinese, constitute one of the most significant flashpoints in the Asia-Pacific region, in part because of their vast amounts of offshore natural resources — gas, oil, fish — but even more because of their symbolic aspects. Peter Dutton, who directs China Maritime Studies at the U.S. Naval War College, calls the Senkakus “a focal point for the challenge of power between China and Japan.” Dutton argues that influence in the East China Sea and East Asia will be among this century’s defining issues: can Japan stem the erosion of its influence, or will the region be dominated solely by an increasingly assertive China?

Dutton also says the islands “serve as a political metaphor for domestic audiences.” In authoritarian systems such as China, he says, “legitimacy is not automatic” and governments “have to make sure to deliver on security and nationalistic promises.” In democratic Japan, public pressure is more direct. If the dominant Liberal Democratic Party acquiesces to Chinese expansion, it risks alienating a base that vehemently values Japanese sovereignty. Both nations are thus pressured by their citizens at home, while simultaneously being influenced by the geopolitical situation in the East China Sea.

Neither China nor Japan is likely to declare war outright over the Senkaku Islands. Both nations have far too much to lose, as does the United States, which would be obliged to come to Tokyo’s defense. What is more probable is a series of miscalculations sparked by an incident such as the seizure of an island by China, or a collision of military ships operating in nearby waters. Popular outcry in both countries would press Tokyo and Bejing to escalate the situation, which in turn could lead to conflict on a larger scale.

Would the United States honor its agreement to Japan in the event of a Sino-Japanese conflict? Despite President Trump’s “America First” rhetoric, his administration has offered reassurances to U.S. allies in East Asia. “The United States will maintain our close coordination and cooperation with the Republic of Korea and Japan, two democracies whose people want peace,” Defense Secretary James Mattis said at this year’s Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore. “Our commitment to the defense of the Republic of Korea and Japan, to include the employment of our most advanced capabilities, is ironclad.” Largely because of such statements, Dutton says he expects an “expanding and deepening” of the U.S.-Japan alliance in coming years.

Peter W. Singer, strategist at New America and author of Ghost Fleet: A Novel of the Next World War, compares the current climate in the East China Sea to the alliance commitments and heightened popular nationalism that swirled in the runup to World War I. Just as the tumultuous politics of Austria-Hungary’s eastern domain did not directly concern pre-WWI Great Britain, the Senkaku Islands have no material or symbolic significance for most Americans. Yet just as a regional incident ultimately forced London to defend its continental allies, Washington would have to side with Japan or risk a collapse of its own global network of alliances.

What can global leaders do to avoid this scenario? Singer says the leaders of Japan, China, and the United States must become better aware of potential flashpoints and how they might get out of hand through various escalation scenarios. In particular, he says, civilian leaders do not adequately understand the complexity of the defense side and the likelihood of a crisis in the East China Sea. Because of this, Singer advises all three governments to be more open about their “red lines”: first, decide for themselves what adversary actions would drive them to declare war, and second, make this crystal clear to each others’ leaders. He also recommends that Japan and the United States improve deterrence through defense spending and better cooperation between the U.S. military and the Japanese self-defense force.

Thomas Berger, a Boston University international-relations professor who specializes in East Asia, divides potential solutions into “management” and “reconciliation.” Berger notes that China wants to “win without fighting” — to force Japan to give up the Senkakus without going to war. But if Japan continues to assert its sovereignty, and if the United States refuses to abandon its ally on this issue, Berger argues that in the short term Washington must pursue a strategy of managing the situation. “To do this, it must signal through military exercises and defense investments that it is committed to its alliance with Japan, thus deterring China from invading the Senkaku Islands,” he says.

In the long term, Berger argues, China and Japan should work together to defuse the situation in a policy of “reconciliation.” They might, for example, reach an agreement that divides the resources in the waters surrounding the Senkaku Islands, while leaving the issue of sovereignty untouched. Another potential solution is a “ritualized system” in which China softens its rhetoric and shrinks its military presence in the area, while still asserting its sovereignty by routinely sending ships into the disputed waters. Finally, Berger suggests that Chinese leaders might publicly “shelve” the Senkaku Islands issue, as Deng Xiaoping did in 1978, effectively recognizing the intractability of the dispute and focusing on other matters in the Sino-Japanese relationship. He says the “ball is in China’s court” for reconciliation with Japan.

So, what steps can the United States take to facilitate peace in the East China Sea? Above all else, Washington must promote dialogue between leaders in Beijing and Tokyo. Last year, Beijing suspended official communication with Taiwanese leaders. A similar break with Japan would exponentially increase the chances of accidental escalation in the East China Sea. This scenario must be avoided at all costs, and Washington should be clear that it will unilaterally sanction any party that cuts diplomatic ties. Longer term, the United States could seek to arbitrate a division of resources around the Senkakus or the creation of Berger’s “ritualized system.” Such proposals could take years of careful diplomatic preparation, since they would seem to thwart China’s designs. Still, as Churchill said, “jaw-jaw” is always better than “war-war.”

X
This website uses cookies to enhance user experience and to analyze performance and traffic on our website. We also share information about your use of our site with our social media, advertising and analytics partners. Learn More / Do Not Sell My Personal Information
Accept Cookies
X
Cookie Preferences Cookie List

Do Not Sell My Personal Information

When you visit our website, we store cookies on your browser to collect information. The information collected might relate to you, your preferences or your device, and is mostly used to make the site work as you expect it to and to provide a more personalized web experience. However, you can choose not to allow certain types of cookies, which may impact your experience of the site and the services we are able to offer. Click on the different category headings to find out more and change our default settings according to your preference. You cannot opt-out of our First Party Strictly Necessary Cookies as they are deployed in order to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting the cookie banner and remembering your settings, to log into your account, to redirect you when you log out, etc.). For more information about the First and Third Party Cookies used please follow this link.

Allow All Cookies

Manage Consent Preferences

Strictly Necessary Cookies - Always Active

We do not allow you to opt-out of our certain cookies, as they are necessary to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting our cookie banner and remembering your privacy choices) and/or to monitor site performance. These cookies are not used in a way that constitutes a “sale” of your data under the CCPA. You can set your browser to block or alert you about these cookies, but some parts of the site will not work as intended if you do so. You can usually find these settings in the Options or Preferences menu of your browser. Visit www.allaboutcookies.org to learn more.

Sale of Personal Data, Targeting & Social Media Cookies

Under the California Consumer Privacy Act, you have the right to opt-out of the sale of your personal information to third parties. These cookies collect information for analytics and to personalize your experience with targeted ads. You may exercise your right to opt out of the sale of personal information by using this toggle switch. If you opt out we will not be able to offer you personalised ads and will not hand over your personal information to any third parties. Additionally, you may contact our legal department for further clarification about your rights as a California consumer by using this Exercise My Rights link

If you have enabled privacy controls on your browser (such as a plugin), we have to take that as a valid request to opt-out. Therefore we would not be able to track your activity through the web. This may affect our ability to personalize ads according to your preferences.

Targeting cookies may be set through our site by our advertising partners. They may be used by those companies to build a profile of your interests and show you relevant adverts on other sites. They do not store directly personal information, but are based on uniquely identifying your browser and internet device. If you do not allow these cookies, you will experience less targeted advertising.

Social media cookies are set by a range of social media services that we have added to the site to enable you to share our content with your friends and networks. They are capable of tracking your browser across other sites and building up a profile of your interests. This may impact the content and messages you see on other websites you visit. If you do not allow these cookies you may not be able to use or see these sharing tools.

If you want to opt out of all of our lead reports and lists, please submit a privacy request at our Do Not Sell page.

Save Settings
Cookie Preferences Cookie List

Cookie List

A cookie is a small piece of data (text file) that a website – when visited by a user – asks your browser to store on your device in order to remember information about you, such as your language preference or login information. Those cookies are set by us and called first-party cookies. We also use third-party cookies – which are cookies from a domain different than the domain of the website you are visiting – for our advertising and marketing efforts. More specifically, we use cookies and other tracking technologies for the following purposes:

Strictly Necessary Cookies

We do not allow you to opt-out of our certain cookies, as they are necessary to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting our cookie banner and remembering your privacy choices) and/or to monitor site performance. These cookies are not used in a way that constitutes a “sale” of your data under the CCPA. You can set your browser to block or alert you about these cookies, but some parts of the site will not work as intended if you do so. You can usually find these settings in the Options or Preferences menu of your browser. Visit www.allaboutcookies.org to learn more.

Functional Cookies

We do not allow you to opt-out of our certain cookies, as they are necessary to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting our cookie banner and remembering your privacy choices) and/or to monitor site performance. These cookies are not used in a way that constitutes a “sale” of your data under the CCPA. You can set your browser to block or alert you about these cookies, but some parts of the site will not work as intended if you do so. You can usually find these settings in the Options or Preferences menu of your browser. Visit www.allaboutcookies.org to learn more.

Performance Cookies

We do not allow you to opt-out of our certain cookies, as they are necessary to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting our cookie banner and remembering your privacy choices) and/or to monitor site performance. These cookies are not used in a way that constitutes a “sale” of your data under the CCPA. You can set your browser to block or alert you about these cookies, but some parts of the site will not work as intended if you do so. You can usually find these settings in the Options or Preferences menu of your browser. Visit www.allaboutcookies.org to learn more.

Sale of Personal Data

We also use cookies to personalize your experience on our websites, including by determining the most relevant content and advertisements to show you, and to monitor site traffic and performance, so that we may improve our websites and your experience. You may opt out of our use of such cookies (and the associated “sale” of your Personal Information) by using this toggle switch. You will still see some advertising, regardless of your selection. Because we do not track you across different devices, browsers and GEMG properties, your selection will take effect only on this browser, this device and this website.

Social Media Cookies

We also use cookies to personalize your experience on our websites, including by determining the most relevant content and advertisements to show you, and to monitor site traffic and performance, so that we may improve our websites and your experience. You may opt out of our use of such cookies (and the associated “sale” of your Personal Information) by using this toggle switch. You will still see some advertising, regardless of your selection. Because we do not track you across different devices, browsers and GEMG properties, your selection will take effect only on this browser, this device and this website.

Targeting Cookies

We also use cookies to personalize your experience on our websites, including by determining the most relevant content and advertisements to show you, and to monitor site traffic and performance, so that we may improve our websites and your experience. You may opt out of our use of such cookies (and the associated “sale” of your Personal Information) by using this toggle switch. You will still see some advertising, regardless of your selection. Because we do not track you across different devices, browsers and GEMG properties, your selection will take effect only on this browser, this device and this website.