U.S. President Donald Trump, center right, and Russia's President Vladimir Putin, center left, talk during the family photo session at the APEC Summit in Danang, Saturday, Nov. 11, 2017.

U.S. President Donald Trump, center right, and Russia's President Vladimir Putin, center left, talk during the family photo session at the APEC Summit in Danang, Saturday, Nov. 11, 2017. Jorge Silva/Pool Photo via AP

What's at Stake at the Trump-Putin Summit

Presidents Trump and Putin have little to show for their rapport so far. Their summit will not be seen as a success without fresh approaches to issues from arms control to election tampering.

Four issues likely to have a prominent place at the Helsinki summit next week between Donald J. Trump and Vladimir Putin are election meddling, Ukraine, Syria, and nuclear arms control. Russian and U.S. officials have made little progress in reaching agreements on any of them. But there is reason to think one or both sides will approach each of these issues in a new way.

U.S. election meddling. At two previous meetings, and in countless public statements, Trump and Putin have dismissed this issue, though doing so has not served them well. Saying that he accepts Putin’s denials hurts Trump’s credibility and makes it harder to move the relationship in the direction he wants. That’s why Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has promised Congress that the president will take a strong stand on the issue. For his part, Putin has suggested that those involved in meddling may have acted independently of the Russian state. Real agreement is unlikely and politically risky for Trump, but look for new positioning by both sides.

Ukraine: a path to sanctions relief? For three years, discussion of this issue revolved around the 2015 so-called Minsk II agreement, which calls for the withdrawal of foreign military forces from eastern Ukraine, Ukrainian control of its border with Russia, and increased autonomy for separatist areas. In the past year, Russian proposals to introduce UN peacekeepers have commanded attention, although Western negotiators criticize them as (so far) unserious. Even a provisional agreement at Helsinki on peacekeepers would be the biggest negotiating breakthrough in years—and could start a debate over limited sanctions relief.

Syria: a way to talk about Iran. Deconfliction in Syria’s civil war, or military coordination between the United States and Russia to stay out of each other’s way, has been a success of sorts, but there is now clear U.S. interest in elevating Syria as a topic of presidential dialogue. The reason: Iran. U.S. officials have worried about the danger of new conflict in Syria between Israel and Iran or Iran-backed forces. The White House also seeks increased Russian oil production—a move on which Russia and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) have already agreed—the better to restrict Iranian export earnings. Putting constraints on Iran could be the top Helsinki priority of Trump and his advisors.

Arms control: an easy win? Both presidents have said recently that the arms race between the two countries requires their attention. A relatively easy step would be to extend the New START treaty, which is set to expire in 2021, for another five years. Yet a series of hurdles could block progress: The treaty was negotiated under Barack Obama (likely a negative for Trump); National Security Advisor John Bolton dislikes all arms agreements; action on New START would raise questions in the U.S. Congress about Russian violations of another arms agreement, the INF Treaty; and Russia would want the United States to put missile defense systems deployed in Eastern Europe on the table. Cold War–era negotiations, which bundled together multiple issues, could provide a model for follow-on talks.

Without progress on one or more of these issues, the certain-to-be-friendly atmosphere in Helsinki will be seen as a bogus photo op. But real agreement will be difficult, in part because these issues affect the interests of many other parties. Both presidents may therefore have to settle for further rounds of ministerial-level discussion.

X
This website uses cookies to enhance user experience and to analyze performance and traffic on our website. We also share information about your use of our site with our social media, advertising and analytics partners. Learn More / Do Not Sell My Personal Information
Accept Cookies
X
Cookie Preferences Cookie List

Do Not Sell My Personal Information

When you visit our website, we store cookies on your browser to collect information. The information collected might relate to you, your preferences or your device, and is mostly used to make the site work as you expect it to and to provide a more personalized web experience. However, you can choose not to allow certain types of cookies, which may impact your experience of the site and the services we are able to offer. Click on the different category headings to find out more and change our default settings according to your preference. You cannot opt-out of our First Party Strictly Necessary Cookies as they are deployed in order to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting the cookie banner and remembering your settings, to log into your account, to redirect you when you log out, etc.). For more information about the First and Third Party Cookies used please follow this link.

Allow All Cookies

Manage Consent Preferences

Strictly Necessary Cookies - Always Active

We do not allow you to opt-out of our certain cookies, as they are necessary to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting our cookie banner and remembering your privacy choices) and/or to monitor site performance. These cookies are not used in a way that constitutes a “sale” of your data under the CCPA. You can set your browser to block or alert you about these cookies, but some parts of the site will not work as intended if you do so. You can usually find these settings in the Options or Preferences menu of your browser. Visit www.allaboutcookies.org to learn more.

Sale of Personal Data, Targeting & Social Media Cookies

Under the California Consumer Privacy Act, you have the right to opt-out of the sale of your personal information to third parties. These cookies collect information for analytics and to personalize your experience with targeted ads. You may exercise your right to opt out of the sale of personal information by using this toggle switch. If you opt out we will not be able to offer you personalised ads and will not hand over your personal information to any third parties. Additionally, you may contact our legal department for further clarification about your rights as a California consumer by using this Exercise My Rights link

If you have enabled privacy controls on your browser (such as a plugin), we have to take that as a valid request to opt-out. Therefore we would not be able to track your activity through the web. This may affect our ability to personalize ads according to your preferences.

Targeting cookies may be set through our site by our advertising partners. They may be used by those companies to build a profile of your interests and show you relevant adverts on other sites. They do not store directly personal information, but are based on uniquely identifying your browser and internet device. If you do not allow these cookies, you will experience less targeted advertising.

Social media cookies are set by a range of social media services that we have added to the site to enable you to share our content with your friends and networks. They are capable of tracking your browser across other sites and building up a profile of your interests. This may impact the content and messages you see on other websites you visit. If you do not allow these cookies you may not be able to use or see these sharing tools.

If you want to opt out of all of our lead reports and lists, please submit a privacy request at our Do Not Sell page.

Save Settings
Cookie Preferences Cookie List

Cookie List

A cookie is a small piece of data (text file) that a website – when visited by a user – asks your browser to store on your device in order to remember information about you, such as your language preference or login information. Those cookies are set by us and called first-party cookies. We also use third-party cookies – which are cookies from a domain different than the domain of the website you are visiting – for our advertising and marketing efforts. More specifically, we use cookies and other tracking technologies for the following purposes:

Strictly Necessary Cookies

We do not allow you to opt-out of our certain cookies, as they are necessary to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting our cookie banner and remembering your privacy choices) and/or to monitor site performance. These cookies are not used in a way that constitutes a “sale” of your data under the CCPA. You can set your browser to block or alert you about these cookies, but some parts of the site will not work as intended if you do so. You can usually find these settings in the Options or Preferences menu of your browser. Visit www.allaboutcookies.org to learn more.

Functional Cookies

We do not allow you to opt-out of our certain cookies, as they are necessary to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting our cookie banner and remembering your privacy choices) and/or to monitor site performance. These cookies are not used in a way that constitutes a “sale” of your data under the CCPA. You can set your browser to block or alert you about these cookies, but some parts of the site will not work as intended if you do so. You can usually find these settings in the Options or Preferences menu of your browser. Visit www.allaboutcookies.org to learn more.

Performance Cookies

We do not allow you to opt-out of our certain cookies, as they are necessary to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting our cookie banner and remembering your privacy choices) and/or to monitor site performance. These cookies are not used in a way that constitutes a “sale” of your data under the CCPA. You can set your browser to block or alert you about these cookies, but some parts of the site will not work as intended if you do so. You can usually find these settings in the Options or Preferences menu of your browser. Visit www.allaboutcookies.org to learn more.

Sale of Personal Data

We also use cookies to personalize your experience on our websites, including by determining the most relevant content and advertisements to show you, and to monitor site traffic and performance, so that we may improve our websites and your experience. You may opt out of our use of such cookies (and the associated “sale” of your Personal Information) by using this toggle switch. You will still see some advertising, regardless of your selection. Because we do not track you across different devices, browsers and GEMG properties, your selection will take effect only on this browser, this device and this website.

Social Media Cookies

We also use cookies to personalize your experience on our websites, including by determining the most relevant content and advertisements to show you, and to monitor site traffic and performance, so that we may improve our websites and your experience. You may opt out of our use of such cookies (and the associated “sale” of your Personal Information) by using this toggle switch. You will still see some advertising, regardless of your selection. Because we do not track you across different devices, browsers and GEMG properties, your selection will take effect only on this browser, this device and this website.

Targeting Cookies

We also use cookies to personalize your experience on our websites, including by determining the most relevant content and advertisements to show you, and to monitor site traffic and performance, so that we may improve our websites and your experience. You may opt out of our use of such cookies (and the associated “sale” of your Personal Information) by using this toggle switch. You will still see some advertising, regardless of your selection. Because we do not track you across different devices, browsers and GEMG properties, your selection will take effect only on this browser, this device and this website.