President Obama returns home after a trip to Normandy in June 2009.

President Obama returns home after a trip to Normandy in June 2009. AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite

Obama Heads to Europe

It's a presidential overseas trip that looks nothing like what was planned only three months ago. By George E. Condon, Jr.

President Obama this week will travel to countries he didn't expect to visit, to talk to leaders he didn't plan to see, to discuss a topic he didn't want to talk about. It's a presidential overseas trip that looks nothing like what was planned only three months ago. But it's what happens to presidential summits when a preplanned agenda doesn't match a messy world.

The president was supposed to spend Wednesday and Thursday in the Black Sea resort of Sochi, accepting the hospitality of Russian President Vladimir Putin, marveling at the facilities built for the Winter Olympics and attending the annual G-8 summit. But then came Russian aggression in neighboring Ukraine and Putin's seizure of Crimea. So, the G-8 reverted back to its Cold War-level of G-7, Putin was disinvited, and the summit was moved to Brussels. And the president was forced to add a pre-summit stop in Poland, another neighbor of Russia left anxious by the Kremlin's moves in Ukraine.

The only part of the schedule unchanged comes at the end of the week when Obama will join other allied leaders on the beaches of Normandy to mark the 70th anniversary of the June 6, 1944, D-Day landings that began the liberation of a continent. Perhaps importantly, Putin has been invited to that in recognition of Russia's critical role in the defeat of Hitler and a remembrance that seven decades ago Russia and the West were on the same side.

As Obama's itinerary makes clear, though, they are decidedly on opposing sides in 2014. And Ben Rhodes, the president's deputy national security adviser, said there are no plans for a formal meeting with Putin when both men are in Paris or Normandy. Nothing beyond a handshake is planned at this point. In contrast, the president will hold a formal meeting in Warsaw Wednesday with Ukraine's President-elect Petro Poroshenko.

SHARE THIS STORY

"This trip is going to be completely dominated by Ukraine and Vladimir Putin," said Heather A. Conley, who was deputy assistant secretary of State for Europe in the George W. Bush administration. "It is definitely a different trip than was originally envisioned to Sochi."

That will be evident from the moment Air Force One touches down in Warsaw. There, the president will meet with the leaders of 11 Central and Eastern European countries—Poland, Bulgaria, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, the Slovak Republic, Slovenia, Romania, and Hungary. All have painful memories of domination by Moscow and all seek reassurance from Obama that the United States will not tolerate any future Russian incursions in their territory.

"Ninety percent of reassurance is showing up," said Jeremy Shapiro, recalling Woody Allen's famous dictum. Shapiro, a senior adviser on Europe and a member of the State Department's policy planning staff in Obama's first term, added, "The main thing he has to do on the trip is show up in terms of Poland. Essentially, what he's trying to say to Poland and to other Eastern European countries in NATO is that the United States is behind you."

That reassurance is badly needed, according to Ryszard Schnepf, the Polish ambassador to the United States. In particular, he said the Poles want to hear Obama specifically state that any Russian incursion across the border of a NATO country would provoke a response under Article 5 of the NATO charter. Article 5 holds that "an armed attack against one" member of NATO "shall be considered an attack against them all." He acknowledged that Article 5 has been reaffirmed in recent weeks by Vice President Joe Biden, Secretary of State John Kerry, and Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel.

"But it is different to publicly hear it from the president in Warsaw," he said. "To hear the words of the U.S. president telling that Article 5 and the mutual commitment of the NATO countries is unbreakable." He acknowledged that Poland has been told the commitment is ironclad. "But," he said, "iron can get rust. It will be an important declaration" to hear it again from Obama.

The White House has said that assurance will come in the president's speech on Wednesday at the Royal Castle in Warsaw.

Conley, who is director of the Europe Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said the leaders in Warsaw also will press Obama to go beyond Article 5. Now that Ukraine's election has been held, she said, they will ask the president, "What is the U.S. policy approach to Ukraine? To Moldova? And Georgia? And Russia? Are you going to stick and focus on this? Where are you? They are going to ask tough questions and they are going to want much, much more sustained U.S. engagement in this region."

On one request, they almost certainly will be denied by Obama. That is the desire by the Poles for the permanent deployment of U.S. combat troops on Polish soil. "They would like a concrete commitment of troops, of permanent stationing," said Shapiro, who is now with the Brookings Institution. But the NATO-Russia Founding Act, signed at the time of NATO expansion, stipulated that there would be no such permanent basing, something that Shapiro said "has always been a bitter pill for the Easterners to swallow."

Ambassador Schnepf treated that stipulation almost as a technicality. "Several commitments have been broken in this initial agreement between NATO and Russia. We all know that," he said. "We did trust a short time ago that things like direct invasion and annexation of foreign territory—we thought it impossible. But we were wrong." He stressed, "We are looking for more presence from the United States."

Schnepf said one of Poland's biggest concerns is that memories of Russia's aggression in Ukraine will fade as did Russia's 2008 invasion of Georgia. "If things are not met properly, like it happened in Georgia, our experience says it may happen again in another place." He said Georgia "we forgot very easily" and the West too quickly returned to "business as usual." He wants the president to understand that cannot happen again. In contrast to Georgia, he praised the American response to Ukraine, calling it "immediate; it was right, it was strong."

In Brussels, the effects of disinviting Russia may make it "easier to talk about Syria and Libya," Conley said. "In some ways, I honestly think it is a bit of a relief because the seven like-minded can now focus strictly on the issues they want."

The Russians have downplayed their exclusion, with Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov stating, "If our Western partners believe the format has exhausted itself, we don't cling to this format." But Russia fought for years to be included and Shapiro believes the exclusion stings. "They have vehemently denied that and said they don't care. But I think they do care. It is really important to the Russians to be seen as part of the committee that runs the world.… It is actually quite a blow, one that I think will tell over time."

NEXT STORY: Behind Eric Shinseki's Downfall

X
This website uses cookies to enhance user experience and to analyze performance and traffic on our website. We also share information about your use of our site with our social media, advertising and analytics partners. Learn More / Do Not Sell My Personal Information
Accept Cookies
X
Cookie Preferences Cookie List

Do Not Sell My Personal Information

When you visit our website, we store cookies on your browser to collect information. The information collected might relate to you, your preferences or your device, and is mostly used to make the site work as you expect it to and to provide a more personalized web experience. However, you can choose not to allow certain types of cookies, which may impact your experience of the site and the services we are able to offer. Click on the different category headings to find out more and change our default settings according to your preference. You cannot opt-out of our First Party Strictly Necessary Cookies as they are deployed in order to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting the cookie banner and remembering your settings, to log into your account, to redirect you when you log out, etc.). For more information about the First and Third Party Cookies used please follow this link.

Allow All Cookies

Manage Consent Preferences

Strictly Necessary Cookies - Always Active

We do not allow you to opt-out of our certain cookies, as they are necessary to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting our cookie banner and remembering your privacy choices) and/or to monitor site performance. These cookies are not used in a way that constitutes a “sale” of your data under the CCPA. You can set your browser to block or alert you about these cookies, but some parts of the site will not work as intended if you do so. You can usually find these settings in the Options or Preferences menu of your browser. Visit www.allaboutcookies.org to learn more.

Sale of Personal Data, Targeting & Social Media Cookies

Under the California Consumer Privacy Act, you have the right to opt-out of the sale of your personal information to third parties. These cookies collect information for analytics and to personalize your experience with targeted ads. You may exercise your right to opt out of the sale of personal information by using this toggle switch. If you opt out we will not be able to offer you personalised ads and will not hand over your personal information to any third parties. Additionally, you may contact our legal department for further clarification about your rights as a California consumer by using this Exercise My Rights link

If you have enabled privacy controls on your browser (such as a plugin), we have to take that as a valid request to opt-out. Therefore we would not be able to track your activity through the web. This may affect our ability to personalize ads according to your preferences.

Targeting cookies may be set through our site by our advertising partners. They may be used by those companies to build a profile of your interests and show you relevant adverts on other sites. They do not store directly personal information, but are based on uniquely identifying your browser and internet device. If you do not allow these cookies, you will experience less targeted advertising.

Social media cookies are set by a range of social media services that we have added to the site to enable you to share our content with your friends and networks. They are capable of tracking your browser across other sites and building up a profile of your interests. This may impact the content and messages you see on other websites you visit. If you do not allow these cookies you may not be able to use or see these sharing tools.

If you want to opt out of all of our lead reports and lists, please submit a privacy request at our Do Not Sell page.

Save Settings
Cookie Preferences Cookie List

Cookie List

A cookie is a small piece of data (text file) that a website – when visited by a user – asks your browser to store on your device in order to remember information about you, such as your language preference or login information. Those cookies are set by us and called first-party cookies. We also use third-party cookies – which are cookies from a domain different than the domain of the website you are visiting – for our advertising and marketing efforts. More specifically, we use cookies and other tracking technologies for the following purposes:

Strictly Necessary Cookies

We do not allow you to opt-out of our certain cookies, as they are necessary to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting our cookie banner and remembering your privacy choices) and/or to monitor site performance. These cookies are not used in a way that constitutes a “sale” of your data under the CCPA. You can set your browser to block or alert you about these cookies, but some parts of the site will not work as intended if you do so. You can usually find these settings in the Options or Preferences menu of your browser. Visit www.allaboutcookies.org to learn more.

Functional Cookies

We do not allow you to opt-out of our certain cookies, as they are necessary to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting our cookie banner and remembering your privacy choices) and/or to monitor site performance. These cookies are not used in a way that constitutes a “sale” of your data under the CCPA. You can set your browser to block or alert you about these cookies, but some parts of the site will not work as intended if you do so. You can usually find these settings in the Options or Preferences menu of your browser. Visit www.allaboutcookies.org to learn more.

Performance Cookies

We do not allow you to opt-out of our certain cookies, as they are necessary to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting our cookie banner and remembering your privacy choices) and/or to monitor site performance. These cookies are not used in a way that constitutes a “sale” of your data under the CCPA. You can set your browser to block or alert you about these cookies, but some parts of the site will not work as intended if you do so. You can usually find these settings in the Options or Preferences menu of your browser. Visit www.allaboutcookies.org to learn more.

Sale of Personal Data

We also use cookies to personalize your experience on our websites, including by determining the most relevant content and advertisements to show you, and to monitor site traffic and performance, so that we may improve our websites and your experience. You may opt out of our use of such cookies (and the associated “sale” of your Personal Information) by using this toggle switch. You will still see some advertising, regardless of your selection. Because we do not track you across different devices, browsers and GEMG properties, your selection will take effect only on this browser, this device and this website.

Social Media Cookies

We also use cookies to personalize your experience on our websites, including by determining the most relevant content and advertisements to show you, and to monitor site traffic and performance, so that we may improve our websites and your experience. You may opt out of our use of such cookies (and the associated “sale” of your Personal Information) by using this toggle switch. You will still see some advertising, regardless of your selection. Because we do not track you across different devices, browsers and GEMG properties, your selection will take effect only on this browser, this device and this website.

Targeting Cookies

We also use cookies to personalize your experience on our websites, including by determining the most relevant content and advertisements to show you, and to monitor site traffic and performance, so that we may improve our websites and your experience. You may opt out of our use of such cookies (and the associated “sale” of your Personal Information) by using this toggle switch. You will still see some advertising, regardless of your selection. Because we do not track you across different devices, browsers and GEMG properties, your selection will take effect only on this browser, this device and this website.