Mechanik via Shutterstock

Can the U.S. and China Get Along in Outer Space?

China is improving and testing its anti-satellite capabilities. The Pentagon is, too. By Michael Krepon

Space isn’t just the final frontier. It’s also a possible new frontier for warfare. The United States and China are ramping up capabilities to disable each other’s satellites. A new Stimson Center collection of essays released on Tuesday, Anti-Satellite Weapons, Deterrence and Sino-American Space Relations, explores how developments in space will reflect and shape the mix of competition and cooperation between Washington and Beijing.

Satellites are force multipliers. The Pentagon already depends on them greatly; the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) will depend increasingly on them in the future. Satellites back up and enable all U.S. military operations, everywhere, at all times. They help protect soldiers in harm’s way. They provide intelligence, targeting support, damage assessments, communications, early warning, and weather forecasts that are essential for all military missions abroad.

These satellites are as vulnerable as they are invaluable. They cannot be armored like tanks and personnel carriers. A piece of space debris the size of a quarter can serve as an unintentional anti-satellite (ASAT) weapon. Its impact could create a mutating, pin-wheeling debris field that will kill other satellites in its path.

Intentional ASAT weapons also exist and cannot be dis-invented. Ballistic missiles, missile defense interceptors, lasers and jammers can be used to temporarily or permanently disable satellites. The PLA is improving and testing ASAT capabilities. The Pentagon is, too. An intensified competition in space weapons and the first-ever use of these capabilities in a deep crisis or a limited war between major powers could have catalytic consequences.

In 2007, the PLA carried out a “hit-to-kill” ASAT test against one of its aging weather satellites, causing the largest, human-made debris field in the history of the Space Age. The following year, the Pentagon demonstrated an agile, sea-based ASAT capability, blowing to smithereens a non-functioning intelligence satellite while entering the Earth’s atmosphere to avoid long-lasting debris consequences.

Beijing called its 2007 ASAT test an “experiment.” The Pentagon justified its 2008 test as necessary for public safety purposes, to prevent harm from the defunct satellite’s toxic fuel. The PLA has carried out subsequent “science experiments” and “ballistic missile defense tests.” There is considerable technical overlap between ASAT and ballistic missile defense applications. The Pentagon has carried out almost 60 missile defense tests in the last decade.

There have been far worse periods of military competition in space during the Cold War, the last being prompted by President Ronald Reagan’s Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI) in the 1983. Previous space war scares were handled with care because attacks on satellites could trigger a nuclear exchange. Washington and Moscow included protections of monitoring satellites in their nuclear arms agreements, and respected tacit “red lines” against highly provocative acts in space. The SDI led to deep cuts in nuclear forces instead of the weaponization of space.

While not as serious as space war scares during the Cold War, advances in U.S. and Chinese military space capabilities could foreshadow a worsening of bilateral relations. Or they could convince Beijing and Washington to engage in a constructive strategic dialogue. The Obama administration is willing, but Beijing’s new line-up of political leaders, like the one it replaced, still has cold feet.

Not talking about “the Bomb” was too unsettling during the Cold War. Vulnerability was inescapable. Deterrence needed parallel efforts at reassurance to keep the Cold War from becoming hot. Superpower nuclear arsenals were roughly comparable, opening the possibility for deals to be struck.

The U.S. and Chinese nuclear arsenals aren’t in any way comparable, so nuclear negotiations aren’t in the cards any time soon. But Beijing does have ambitious space plans. Its military will become dependent on vulnerable satellites, just like the United States.

Space capabilities, unlike nuclear arsenals, can be the door-opener for a strategic dialogue – if Beijing can shake its wariness of accords that require greater cooperation and transparency. In China, the PLA has out-sized influence on national security decision making – just as Soviet generals did when nuclear arms negotiations began.

The vulnerability of humankind to nuclear exchanges has always been obvious. The vulnerability of satellites – which could have profound consequences for humankind – is not glaringly obvious. Nor is there widespread public consciousness of how warfare in space could have catalytic consequences on Earth.

Beijing, along with Moscow, has proposed a gambit reminiscent of the early Cold War years: a pie-in-the-sky, unverifiable and unenforceable treaty that would ban the threat or use of force in space – but not military developments that would allow improvements in space war-fighting. The Obama administration has endorsed a

European Union-led initiative to establish a code of conduct for responsible space-faring nations.

An ambitious space treaty is inconceivable, but an executive agreement setting rules of the road for space could have strategic significance. At present, the Obama administration is too distracted and Beijing is too wary to seize this opportunity.

Michael Krepon is co-founder of the Stimson Center.

X
This website uses cookies to enhance user experience and to analyze performance and traffic on our website. We also share information about your use of our site with our social media, advertising and analytics partners. Learn More / Do Not Sell My Personal Information
Accept Cookies
X
Cookie Preferences Cookie List

Do Not Sell My Personal Information

When you visit our website, we store cookies on your browser to collect information. The information collected might relate to you, your preferences or your device, and is mostly used to make the site work as you expect it to and to provide a more personalized web experience. However, you can choose not to allow certain types of cookies, which may impact your experience of the site and the services we are able to offer. Click on the different category headings to find out more and change our default settings according to your preference. You cannot opt-out of our First Party Strictly Necessary Cookies as they are deployed in order to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting the cookie banner and remembering your settings, to log into your account, to redirect you when you log out, etc.). For more information about the First and Third Party Cookies used please follow this link.

Allow All Cookies

Manage Consent Preferences

Strictly Necessary Cookies - Always Active

We do not allow you to opt-out of our certain cookies, as they are necessary to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting our cookie banner and remembering your privacy choices) and/or to monitor site performance. These cookies are not used in a way that constitutes a “sale” of your data under the CCPA. You can set your browser to block or alert you about these cookies, but some parts of the site will not work as intended if you do so. You can usually find these settings in the Options or Preferences menu of your browser. Visit www.allaboutcookies.org to learn more.

Sale of Personal Data, Targeting & Social Media Cookies

Under the California Consumer Privacy Act, you have the right to opt-out of the sale of your personal information to third parties. These cookies collect information for analytics and to personalize your experience with targeted ads. You may exercise your right to opt out of the sale of personal information by using this toggle switch. If you opt out we will not be able to offer you personalised ads and will not hand over your personal information to any third parties. Additionally, you may contact our legal department for further clarification about your rights as a California consumer by using this Exercise My Rights link

If you have enabled privacy controls on your browser (such as a plugin), we have to take that as a valid request to opt-out. Therefore we would not be able to track your activity through the web. This may affect our ability to personalize ads according to your preferences.

Targeting cookies may be set through our site by our advertising partners. They may be used by those companies to build a profile of your interests and show you relevant adverts on other sites. They do not store directly personal information, but are based on uniquely identifying your browser and internet device. If you do not allow these cookies, you will experience less targeted advertising.

Social media cookies are set by a range of social media services that we have added to the site to enable you to share our content with your friends and networks. They are capable of tracking your browser across other sites and building up a profile of your interests. This may impact the content and messages you see on other websites you visit. If you do not allow these cookies you may not be able to use or see these sharing tools.

If you want to opt out of all of our lead reports and lists, please submit a privacy request at our Do Not Sell page.

Save Settings
Cookie Preferences Cookie List

Cookie List

A cookie is a small piece of data (text file) that a website – when visited by a user – asks your browser to store on your device in order to remember information about you, such as your language preference or login information. Those cookies are set by us and called first-party cookies. We also use third-party cookies – which are cookies from a domain different than the domain of the website you are visiting – for our advertising and marketing efforts. More specifically, we use cookies and other tracking technologies for the following purposes:

Strictly Necessary Cookies

We do not allow you to opt-out of our certain cookies, as they are necessary to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting our cookie banner and remembering your privacy choices) and/or to monitor site performance. These cookies are not used in a way that constitutes a “sale” of your data under the CCPA. You can set your browser to block or alert you about these cookies, but some parts of the site will not work as intended if you do so. You can usually find these settings in the Options or Preferences menu of your browser. Visit www.allaboutcookies.org to learn more.

Functional Cookies

We do not allow you to opt-out of our certain cookies, as they are necessary to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting our cookie banner and remembering your privacy choices) and/or to monitor site performance. These cookies are not used in a way that constitutes a “sale” of your data under the CCPA. You can set your browser to block or alert you about these cookies, but some parts of the site will not work as intended if you do so. You can usually find these settings in the Options or Preferences menu of your browser. Visit www.allaboutcookies.org to learn more.

Performance Cookies

We do not allow you to opt-out of our certain cookies, as they are necessary to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting our cookie banner and remembering your privacy choices) and/or to monitor site performance. These cookies are not used in a way that constitutes a “sale” of your data under the CCPA. You can set your browser to block or alert you about these cookies, but some parts of the site will not work as intended if you do so. You can usually find these settings in the Options or Preferences menu of your browser. Visit www.allaboutcookies.org to learn more.

Sale of Personal Data

We also use cookies to personalize your experience on our websites, including by determining the most relevant content and advertisements to show you, and to monitor site traffic and performance, so that we may improve our websites and your experience. You may opt out of our use of such cookies (and the associated “sale” of your Personal Information) by using this toggle switch. You will still see some advertising, regardless of your selection. Because we do not track you across different devices, browsers and GEMG properties, your selection will take effect only on this browser, this device and this website.

Social Media Cookies

We also use cookies to personalize your experience on our websites, including by determining the most relevant content and advertisements to show you, and to monitor site traffic and performance, so that we may improve our websites and your experience. You may opt out of our use of such cookies (and the associated “sale” of your Personal Information) by using this toggle switch. You will still see some advertising, regardless of your selection. Because we do not track you across different devices, browsers and GEMG properties, your selection will take effect only on this browser, this device and this website.

Targeting Cookies

We also use cookies to personalize your experience on our websites, including by determining the most relevant content and advertisements to show you, and to monitor site traffic and performance, so that we may improve our websites and your experience. You may opt out of our use of such cookies (and the associated “sale” of your Personal Information) by using this toggle switch. You will still see some advertising, regardless of your selection. Because we do not track you across different devices, browsers and GEMG properties, your selection will take effect only on this browser, this device and this website.