A group of civilians pass close to the body of an Islamic State militant, while fleeing from Mosul due to ISIS heavy shelling in several areas under control of the Iraqi Army, Mosul, Iraq, Friday, Dec. 2, 2016.

A group of civilians pass close to the body of an Islamic State militant, while fleeing from Mosul due to ISIS heavy shelling in several areas under control of the Iraqi Army, Mosul, Iraq, Friday, Dec. 2, 2016. AP Photo/Manu Brabo

Is ISIS More Violent During Ramadan?

The group has called for increased attacks during the Islamic holy month.

As Muslims observe Eid al-Fitr, the three-day festival marking the end of Ramadan, they celebrate the completion of a monthlong period of fasting, self-reflection, and spiritual renewal. It also marks the end of a holy month marred by several tragedies, from the attack in London that killed eight people to the blast that killed 17 people at an ice cream shop in Baghdad.

Such violence during Ramadan is not new. Previous Ramadans have witnessed a stunning rise in attacks relative to other months in recent years—an increase attributed, in part, to the Islamic State, and its attempts to transform the month of prayer and atonement to one of bloodshed and violence. Last year’s Ramadan, which took place between June 6 and July 5, was particularly deadly. In addition to a suicide-bombing in Baghdad, which resulted in the deaths of more than 200 people, ISIS also claimed deadly attacks in the U.S., Bangladesh, Lebanon, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia. In May of last year, by contrast, only one major attack attributed to ISIS outside of Iraq and Syria was recorded.

This Ramadan was no different. Within the first three weeks, ISIS claimed more than 300 attacks in at least 12 countries, according to SITE Intelligence Group, an organization that tracks terrorist groups online. Though some of the most high-profile of these attacks included the ISIS-linked takeover of Marawi City in the southern Philippines and the attack on the London Bridge, the vast majority of these incidents—approximately 80 percent, according to SITE— took place in Iraq and Syria, where ISIS faces accelerating offensives against its strongholds of Mosul and Raqqa. It’s a number that puts ISIS on track to meet, if not exceed, its level of violence from last year’s Ramadan, which witnessed nearly 400 attacks in at least 16 countries (the full data from this Ramadan is not yet available).

This spike in violence is no coincidence. ISIS has made a point of calling for increased attacks during Ramadan, often referring to the holiday as “the holy month of jihad.” In one audio message distributed using the encrypted messaging app Telegram, ISIS spokesman Abu al-Hassan al-Muhajir called on the group’s followers to target “the rejectionists and the apostates” in Iraq and Syria. He also urged them to target Iran, where the group claimed its first attack on the predominantly Shiite country on June 7 (ISIS subscribes to a militant version of Sunni Islam, and has often characterized Shiite Muslims as apostates). As Amarnath Amarasingam and Charlie Winter wrote in The Atlantic last month, the group points to early Islamic history to justify its aims:

To validate this position, jihadists often evoke the Battle of Badr, a key moment in early Muslim history that occurred during the month of Ramadan in the year 624 CE. During the battle, Muslim forces overwhelmed their enemies despite being massively outnumbered. Against all odds, their victory ensured the survival of the fledgling community of believers. It’s no surprise that jihadists like to draw attention to this example, manipulating it to their political ends.

But the scale of ISIS-related violence during Ramadan isn’t always consistent. As the University of Maryland's Global Terrorism Database noted in a 2015 report, the number of attacks carried out by core ISIS members (individuals who are considered operatives of the organization, as opposed to those belonging to ISIS-affiliated groups or individuals who are considered to be ISIS-inspired) increased each year during Ramadan between 2013 and 2015—in some cases only modestly—yet the number of attacks carried out by ISIS-affiliated groups decreased during 2014. Moreover, attacks by ISIS-inspired individuals decreased during Ramadan in 2014 and 2015. Over the longer term, after examining 10 years’ worth of attacks by ISIS and its precursor groups, the authors concluded: “While major attacks have taken place during Ramadan, we have also observed major attacks outside the month of Ramadan, and periods during which Ramadan was relatively calm. Thus, it remains an open question whether Ramadan is a period of heightened risk.”

Attacks not attributed to ISIS also saw a surge during Ramadan in 2013 and 2014. While the report notes that some of these attacks were committed by jihadists who may share ISIS’s ideological perspective, given the presence of non-jihadist groups in the data set, it also suggests that there could be a seasonal pattern of increased violence that has nothing to do with ideology (though the holiday’s dates vary as it follows the lunar calendar, the last several Ramadans have taken place over the summer). One such attack this year, during which a suspect drove a van into a crowd of worshippers near a mosque in London’s Finsbury Park neighborhood, was reportedly celebrated by white-supremacist organizations.

Though this lack of consistency makes it difficult to determine whether there’s indeed a causal link between Ramadan and heightened terrorism, the bloodshed is unlikely to let up once the month draws to a close. As ISIS continues to experience territorial losses in Iraq and Syria, some observers predict the group will accelerate calls for lone-wolf attacks overseas in an effort to prove to the world its enduring legitimacy.

X
This website uses cookies to enhance user experience and to analyze performance and traffic on our website. We also share information about your use of our site with our social media, advertising and analytics partners. Learn More / Do Not Sell My Personal Information
Accept Cookies
X
Cookie Preferences Cookie List

Do Not Sell My Personal Information

When you visit our website, we store cookies on your browser to collect information. The information collected might relate to you, your preferences or your device, and is mostly used to make the site work as you expect it to and to provide a more personalized web experience. However, you can choose not to allow certain types of cookies, which may impact your experience of the site and the services we are able to offer. Click on the different category headings to find out more and change our default settings according to your preference. You cannot opt-out of our First Party Strictly Necessary Cookies as they are deployed in order to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting the cookie banner and remembering your settings, to log into your account, to redirect you when you log out, etc.). For more information about the First and Third Party Cookies used please follow this link.

Allow All Cookies

Manage Consent Preferences

Strictly Necessary Cookies - Always Active

We do not allow you to opt-out of our certain cookies, as they are necessary to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting our cookie banner and remembering your privacy choices) and/or to monitor site performance. These cookies are not used in a way that constitutes a “sale” of your data under the CCPA. You can set your browser to block or alert you about these cookies, but some parts of the site will not work as intended if you do so. You can usually find these settings in the Options or Preferences menu of your browser. Visit www.allaboutcookies.org to learn more.

Sale of Personal Data, Targeting & Social Media Cookies

Under the California Consumer Privacy Act, you have the right to opt-out of the sale of your personal information to third parties. These cookies collect information for analytics and to personalize your experience with targeted ads. You may exercise your right to opt out of the sale of personal information by using this toggle switch. If you opt out we will not be able to offer you personalised ads and will not hand over your personal information to any third parties. Additionally, you may contact our legal department for further clarification about your rights as a California consumer by using this Exercise My Rights link

If you have enabled privacy controls on your browser (such as a plugin), we have to take that as a valid request to opt-out. Therefore we would not be able to track your activity through the web. This may affect our ability to personalize ads according to your preferences.

Targeting cookies may be set through our site by our advertising partners. They may be used by those companies to build a profile of your interests and show you relevant adverts on other sites. They do not store directly personal information, but are based on uniquely identifying your browser and internet device. If you do not allow these cookies, you will experience less targeted advertising.

Social media cookies are set by a range of social media services that we have added to the site to enable you to share our content with your friends and networks. They are capable of tracking your browser across other sites and building up a profile of your interests. This may impact the content and messages you see on other websites you visit. If you do not allow these cookies you may not be able to use or see these sharing tools.

If you want to opt out of all of our lead reports and lists, please submit a privacy request at our Do Not Sell page.

Save Settings
Cookie Preferences Cookie List

Cookie List

A cookie is a small piece of data (text file) that a website – when visited by a user – asks your browser to store on your device in order to remember information about you, such as your language preference or login information. Those cookies are set by us and called first-party cookies. We also use third-party cookies – which are cookies from a domain different than the domain of the website you are visiting – for our advertising and marketing efforts. More specifically, we use cookies and other tracking technologies for the following purposes:

Strictly Necessary Cookies

We do not allow you to opt-out of our certain cookies, as they are necessary to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting our cookie banner and remembering your privacy choices) and/or to monitor site performance. These cookies are not used in a way that constitutes a “sale” of your data under the CCPA. You can set your browser to block or alert you about these cookies, but some parts of the site will not work as intended if you do so. You can usually find these settings in the Options or Preferences menu of your browser. Visit www.allaboutcookies.org to learn more.

Functional Cookies

We do not allow you to opt-out of our certain cookies, as they are necessary to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting our cookie banner and remembering your privacy choices) and/or to monitor site performance. These cookies are not used in a way that constitutes a “sale” of your data under the CCPA. You can set your browser to block or alert you about these cookies, but some parts of the site will not work as intended if you do so. You can usually find these settings in the Options or Preferences menu of your browser. Visit www.allaboutcookies.org to learn more.

Performance Cookies

We do not allow you to opt-out of our certain cookies, as they are necessary to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting our cookie banner and remembering your privacy choices) and/or to monitor site performance. These cookies are not used in a way that constitutes a “sale” of your data under the CCPA. You can set your browser to block or alert you about these cookies, but some parts of the site will not work as intended if you do so. You can usually find these settings in the Options or Preferences menu of your browser. Visit www.allaboutcookies.org to learn more.

Sale of Personal Data

We also use cookies to personalize your experience on our websites, including by determining the most relevant content and advertisements to show you, and to monitor site traffic and performance, so that we may improve our websites and your experience. You may opt out of our use of such cookies (and the associated “sale” of your Personal Information) by using this toggle switch. You will still see some advertising, regardless of your selection. Because we do not track you across different devices, browsers and GEMG properties, your selection will take effect only on this browser, this device and this website.

Social Media Cookies

We also use cookies to personalize your experience on our websites, including by determining the most relevant content and advertisements to show you, and to monitor site traffic and performance, so that we may improve our websites and your experience. You may opt out of our use of such cookies (and the associated “sale” of your Personal Information) by using this toggle switch. You will still see some advertising, regardless of your selection. Because we do not track you across different devices, browsers and GEMG properties, your selection will take effect only on this browser, this device and this website.

Targeting Cookies

We also use cookies to personalize your experience on our websites, including by determining the most relevant content and advertisements to show you, and to monitor site traffic and performance, so that we may improve our websites and your experience. You may opt out of our use of such cookies (and the associated “sale” of your Personal Information) by using this toggle switch. You will still see some advertising, regardless of your selection. Because we do not track you across different devices, browsers and GEMG properties, your selection will take effect only on this browser, this device and this website.