Amb. John Bolton speaks during Faith and Freedom Coalition's Road to Majority event in Washington, Thursday, June 19, 2014.

Amb. John Bolton speaks during Faith and Freedom Coalition's Road to Majority event in Washington, Thursday, June 19, 2014. AP Photo/Molly Riley

John Bolton Will Not End Well

Wait until Trump starts working with this swamp veteran with bad press and Pentagon push-back who likes to name-drop Edmund Burke.

“Let me just say from the outset that I don’t consider Bolton credible.” Those aren’t the words of one of my former Obama administration colleagues, who are thinking much worse. That’s none other than George W. Bush, as reported by the New York Times’ Peter Baker. The president was responding to the assertion made by his former UN Ambassador John Bolton – the one put in the job with a recess appointment because he was never going to get through Senate confirmation – that the Bush administration had drifted too far from its muscular ways.

Just let that sink in.

John Bolton is a long-standing member of the Washington swamp. He’s been a senior official in multiple Republican administrations, a private sector lawyer and think tanker, political mover and shaker, author of books and scores of articles, and prominent speaker and pundit. Bolton’s appointment as national security advisor has detonated like a neutron bomb among foreign policy wonks. Thinking back over the past 20 years – heck, let’s say 60 – I am hard pressed to think of any foreign policy official who has caused such angst before they even started the job.

There’s much to say about Bolton’s foreign policy views, most of which I disagree with profoundly. We’ve met a few times, most substantively 11 years ago during a long interview he agreed to do for a book I coauthored. Back then we didn’t see much of the Fox News flamethrower that Donald Trump has come to admire; Bolton struck me as bookish if often wrongheaded. He proudly displayed a picture of himself examining the famous hanging chads during the 2000 Florida recount. He talked a lot about Edmund Burke.

So this isn’t going to end well. 

Bolton is known for many things, but being a team player is not one of them. Just ask any former Bush 43 official (outside of Dick Cheney’s office).  His tenure in Colin Powell’s State Department was so turbulent that Powell quietly worked against his promotion to UN ambassador. Bolton tangled with the intelligence community, pushing claims on Iraq’s alleged WMD and trying to end the careers of junior officials who disagreed with him. Once in New York, he regularly butted heads with Condoleezza Rice and her team, especially on issues like Iran and North Korea. Hence Bush 43’s back-of-the-hand dismissal of Bolton lacking credibility.

The interagency process is not going to get any better. To the extent there has been such a process in this administration, it has been rife with dysfunction, but it’s about to get more so. This will be a huge challenge for Defense Secretary Jim Mattis and the Pentagon. The harmony in civil-military relations is about to end. 

Up to now the Pentagon has been the dominant force in the Trump administration, squashing bad ideas, reassuring allies, and generally projecting stability and continuity in the midst of Trump’s chaos. Mattis kept things civil with Lt. Gen. H.R. McMaster, but the former 4-star general didn’t have much time for the 3-star who evidently didn’t have much juice with the president. 

With Bolton Mattis will be facing something entirely different: an experienced bureaucratic knife-fighter who plays dirty and has a lot of ideas about how the military should be used. Bolton won’t show the Pentagon the same deference it has enjoyed for the past 14 months, so expect a lot of requests from him for military options on all matter of things. 

Moreover, while Bolton has a lot of Washington bureaucratic experience, he’s never had a job where he has dealt much with military or intelligence operations, and he speaks glibly about the use of force. That won’t go over well in the Pentagon. There will be a lot of pushback, and we’ll be hearing about how he is not in the chain of command. So this will be a true test of Trump’s instinct to defer to military leaders versus Bolton’s desire to push them to do things they don’t want to do.  

Which leads to another danger with Bolton – it’s not clear that he and Trump actually agree on policy, especially when it comes to using force. Sure, Trump likes the Fox News character Bolton who talks a big game and sticks it to foreigners and weak-kneed experts.  But Trump sounds like Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., when he talks about the Iraq War that Bolton championed and has never repented for, and Trump has shown no appetite to ratchet up against Iran in Syria. Trump can’t say anything bad about Putin and Russia, while Bolton is a hard-liner. This is a recipe for even more stray voltage and policy confusion.

My guess is that the Trump-Bolton relationship, like pretty much all of Trump’s relationships save for the flunkies and the dudes in the club grill room, will sour. If Trump thought McMaster was long-winded and pedantic, wait until he spends some time with a guy who likes to name-drop Edmund Burke. And Bolton will get a load of bad press, which Trump might enjoy for awhile because it stirs things up, but will quickly grow tired, especially when he’s flagged for pushing unpopular policies – like unnecessary war.

For reasons of both process and policy, Bolton’s tenure in the White House will not turn out any better than that of his two predecessors – for him, or for the country. In fact, it will almost certainly end up worse.

X
This website uses cookies to enhance user experience and to analyze performance and traffic on our website. We also share information about your use of our site with our social media, advertising and analytics partners. Learn More / Do Not Sell My Personal Information
Accept Cookies
X
Cookie Preferences Cookie List

Do Not Sell My Personal Information

When you visit our website, we store cookies on your browser to collect information. The information collected might relate to you, your preferences or your device, and is mostly used to make the site work as you expect it to and to provide a more personalized web experience. However, you can choose not to allow certain types of cookies, which may impact your experience of the site and the services we are able to offer. Click on the different category headings to find out more and change our default settings according to your preference. You cannot opt-out of our First Party Strictly Necessary Cookies as they are deployed in order to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting the cookie banner and remembering your settings, to log into your account, to redirect you when you log out, etc.). For more information about the First and Third Party Cookies used please follow this link.

Allow All Cookies

Manage Consent Preferences

Strictly Necessary Cookies - Always Active

We do not allow you to opt-out of our certain cookies, as they are necessary to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting our cookie banner and remembering your privacy choices) and/or to monitor site performance. These cookies are not used in a way that constitutes a “sale” of your data under the CCPA. You can set your browser to block or alert you about these cookies, but some parts of the site will not work as intended if you do so. You can usually find these settings in the Options or Preferences menu of your browser. Visit www.allaboutcookies.org to learn more.

Sale of Personal Data, Targeting & Social Media Cookies

Under the California Consumer Privacy Act, you have the right to opt-out of the sale of your personal information to third parties. These cookies collect information for analytics and to personalize your experience with targeted ads. You may exercise your right to opt out of the sale of personal information by using this toggle switch. If you opt out we will not be able to offer you personalised ads and will not hand over your personal information to any third parties. Additionally, you may contact our legal department for further clarification about your rights as a California consumer by using this Exercise My Rights link

If you have enabled privacy controls on your browser (such as a plugin), we have to take that as a valid request to opt-out. Therefore we would not be able to track your activity through the web. This may affect our ability to personalize ads according to your preferences.

Targeting cookies may be set through our site by our advertising partners. They may be used by those companies to build a profile of your interests and show you relevant adverts on other sites. They do not store directly personal information, but are based on uniquely identifying your browser and internet device. If you do not allow these cookies, you will experience less targeted advertising.

Social media cookies are set by a range of social media services that we have added to the site to enable you to share our content with your friends and networks. They are capable of tracking your browser across other sites and building up a profile of your interests. This may impact the content and messages you see on other websites you visit. If you do not allow these cookies you may not be able to use or see these sharing tools.

If you want to opt out of all of our lead reports and lists, please submit a privacy request at our Do Not Sell page.

Save Settings
Cookie Preferences Cookie List

Cookie List

A cookie is a small piece of data (text file) that a website – when visited by a user – asks your browser to store on your device in order to remember information about you, such as your language preference or login information. Those cookies are set by us and called first-party cookies. We also use third-party cookies – which are cookies from a domain different than the domain of the website you are visiting – for our advertising and marketing efforts. More specifically, we use cookies and other tracking technologies for the following purposes:

Strictly Necessary Cookies

We do not allow you to opt-out of our certain cookies, as they are necessary to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting our cookie banner and remembering your privacy choices) and/or to monitor site performance. These cookies are not used in a way that constitutes a “sale” of your data under the CCPA. You can set your browser to block or alert you about these cookies, but some parts of the site will not work as intended if you do so. You can usually find these settings in the Options or Preferences menu of your browser. Visit www.allaboutcookies.org to learn more.

Functional Cookies

We do not allow you to opt-out of our certain cookies, as they are necessary to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting our cookie banner and remembering your privacy choices) and/or to monitor site performance. These cookies are not used in a way that constitutes a “sale” of your data under the CCPA. You can set your browser to block or alert you about these cookies, but some parts of the site will not work as intended if you do so. You can usually find these settings in the Options or Preferences menu of your browser. Visit www.allaboutcookies.org to learn more.

Performance Cookies

We do not allow you to opt-out of our certain cookies, as they are necessary to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting our cookie banner and remembering your privacy choices) and/or to monitor site performance. These cookies are not used in a way that constitutes a “sale” of your data under the CCPA. You can set your browser to block or alert you about these cookies, but some parts of the site will not work as intended if you do so. You can usually find these settings in the Options or Preferences menu of your browser. Visit www.allaboutcookies.org to learn more.

Sale of Personal Data

We also use cookies to personalize your experience on our websites, including by determining the most relevant content and advertisements to show you, and to monitor site traffic and performance, so that we may improve our websites and your experience. You may opt out of our use of such cookies (and the associated “sale” of your Personal Information) by using this toggle switch. You will still see some advertising, regardless of your selection. Because we do not track you across different devices, browsers and GEMG properties, your selection will take effect only on this browser, this device and this website.

Social Media Cookies

We also use cookies to personalize your experience on our websites, including by determining the most relevant content and advertisements to show you, and to monitor site traffic and performance, so that we may improve our websites and your experience. You may opt out of our use of such cookies (and the associated “sale” of your Personal Information) by using this toggle switch. You will still see some advertising, regardless of your selection. Because we do not track you across different devices, browsers and GEMG properties, your selection will take effect only on this browser, this device and this website.

Targeting Cookies

We also use cookies to personalize your experience on our websites, including by determining the most relevant content and advertisements to show you, and to monitor site traffic and performance, so that we may improve our websites and your experience. You may opt out of our use of such cookies (and the associated “sale” of your Personal Information) by using this toggle switch. You will still see some advertising, regardless of your selection. Because we do not track you across different devices, browsers and GEMG properties, your selection will take effect only on this browser, this device and this website.