U.S. Army Cpl. Rogelio Argueta, Patriot Launching Station Enhanced Operator-Maintainer, assigned with Task Force Talon, 94th Army Air and Missile Defense Command gives commands, during a practice missile reload at Andersen Air Force Base, Feb. 6, 2019.

U.S. Army Cpl. Rogelio Argueta, Patriot Launching Station Enhanced Operator-Maintainer, assigned with Task Force Talon, 94th Army Air and Missile Defense Command gives commands, during a practice missile reload at Andersen Air Force Base, Feb. 6, 2019. Army photo by Capt. Adan Cazarez

A Technological Path Out of the Missile-Defense Security Dilemma

As boost-phase defenses become viable, they could reduce the destabilizing effects of longer-ranged defenses on great-power relationships.

It is a curious feature of nuclear strategy that anti-missile systems that deter rogue states also destabilize relations among major powers. But new technology, combined with intensive diplomacy, may offer a way out of this trap.

Let’s start with reviewing how ABM systems are destabilizing. An ideal mutually-assured-destruction scenario — forgive the absurdity — confers no advantages to the nation that shoots first. Sure, a first strike might knock out a good number of nuclear installations, but the remaining arsenal would still be more than capable of delivering annihilation. This means decision-making under pressure is relatively straightforward: don’t fire nuclear weapons first. No matter how suspicious you are of your enemy, restraint always offers a chance for survival. A first strike guarantees your own destruction.

However, when you throw ABM systems into the mix, the situation grows considerably murkier. With sufficient defenses, a nation might just be able to stop (or at least blunt) a weakened second strike. This changes the calculus completely. If confronted with a possible enemy strike, leaders may feel they have no choice but to fire pre-emptively and take their chances at defending against a second strike: “Nuclear war should be avoided, but if you’re going to have one it’s best to shoot first.”

This logic led Nixon and Brezhnev to sign the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty, limiting the number of anti-ICBM missiles to a paltry 100 each. Three decades later, George W. Bush withdrew from the agreement, citing the (then-potential) threat from North Korea and (still-only-potentially) Iran. If Pyongyang could develop long-range missiles, then it could invade South Korea while threatening a nuclear strike on the U.S. mainland. Would the United States risk Los Angeles or San Francisco to come to Seoul’s aid? Bush argued that ABMs were needed to protect the United States and allies alike.

Related: Let’s Walk This Through: If North Korea Launches An ICBM, Then…

Related: Missile Defense Review Calls for Protecting US From Cruise Missiles

Related: Pentagon to Study Putting Anti-Missile Laser Weapons in Space

But as these systems deployed — THAAD to South Korea, Aegis Ashore to Europe, Ground Based Midcourse Defense to Alaska and California, and the Navy’s Aegis Ballistic Missile Defense on the world’s oceans — China and Russia grew increasingly alarmed. These systems may be primarily aimed at North Korea and Iran, but with enough improvement, they might eventually be used to stop (or blunt) a superpower’s second strike.

Russia’s concerns can be seen in its recent proliferation efforts. It has recently announced new hypersonic missiles that can theoretically penetrate any missile defenses and deployed 9M729 missiles on land, violating the INF treaty. China will likely also look to bolster its arsenal if it sees its nuclear forces as increasingly ineffective against U.S. missile defense schemes. So, by seeking to protect itself against smaller, hostile states, the United States is igniting an arms race among the more powerful nuclear states. Or is there another way?

Today’s missile defenses target incoming weapons in their midcourse or terminal phases, thanks largely to technical challenges that have ruled out interception during the boost phase. This phase only lasts a short time, so the interceptors must be positioned close to the launch area and ready to fire instantly. 


Related podcast

However, with recent advances in laser technology and networked communications, viable boost-phase defense is within reach. Lockheed is slated to deliver a 60-150-kilowatt laser for integration with the Aegis system by 2020. An earlier 30-kilowatt model has shown the ability to shoot down drones and disable a truck from a mile away. Indeed, the Defense Department’s 2019 Missile Defense Review says, “Developing scalable, efficient, and compact high energy laser technology holds the potential to provide a future cost-effective capability to destroy boosting missiles in the early part of the trajectory.” Lasers have the advantage of near-instantaneous time to target and are not limited by the number and cost of interceptors. Also mentioned is the possibility of arming F-35s with interceptors, made possible by the improving network-centric coordination of targeting information across multiple platforms.

Boost-phase defenses help solve at least one tactical problem: MIRVs, or Multiple Independently-Targetable Reentry Vehicles, long the bane of ABM developers. Within a few minutes of launch, a MIRV-equipped missile can send its warheads and dummies off on different trajectories. The best way to deal with this is to hit the missile before one target becomes ten.

But boost-phase defenses offer a key strategic advantage as well. They can, and indeed must, be placed close to their targets. Their batteries would be able to intercept North Korean missiles but not launches from deep within mainland China and unlike current forward-deployed regional systems, they can have verifiably limited ranges. China is currently up-in-arms over the deployment of THAAD in South Korea, while Russia is livid about the placement of Aegis batteries in Romania and Poland. As terminal-phase and midcourse-phase systems, these are inherently long-range. THAAD interceptors have a range of over 200 kilometers, while an Aegis-fired SM-6 can fly as many as 240 kilometers. The THAAD-ER and SM-6 IIB upgrades only extend these ranges. On the other hand, a Sidewinder fired from an F-35 has a maximum range of about 35 kilometers. For the foreseeable future, atmospheric lasers will be similarly short-ranged.

This also provides a solution to China’s other gripe with the placement of THAAD: that the accompanying radar system penetrates deep into Chinese airspace. Large radar ranges are a necessary component of any midcourse or terminal-phase system. If THAAD is going to intercept a ballistic missile 200 kilometers out, then it needs to launch the interceptor long before then, and it will need to acquire the missile even further out. As such, the AN/TPY-2 radar that accompanies the THAAD system has an estimated range of at least 1,000 kilometers, which could reach from Seoul to Beijing and would allow the United States to monitor all activity in that part of Chinese airspace. However, boost-phase defenses work on the principle of targeting missiles inside a predetermined area. Therefore, they can use less powerful, more localized radars focused just on North Korean ICBM sites rather than the whole region.

But a technology change alone isn’t enough to extract the United States from its security dilemma; that will require trust and communication. U.S. officials must take the initiative to convince Russia and China that these systems are not aimed at them. Boost-phase defense provides the technical basis for this, but it must be accompanied by openness and transparency. This could include allowing inspections of missile defense installations to verify their short-ranged nature. Unfortunately, current diplomatic trust is not high, as shown by the collapse of the INF treaty. The situation is further hindered by statements such as President Trump’s words at the Missile Defense Review rollout: “Our goal is simple. To ensure that we can detect and destroy any missile launched against the United States anywhere, anytime, anyplace.” 

As ABM technology improves, especially the effectiveness of lasers, the United States would do well to focus on localized, surface-based, boost-phase defenses rather than attempting to build a massive Reagan-style missile defense scheme that would serve only to destabilize the current world order. This will provide an effective defense against current and future rogue states, while maintaining the status quo among the major nuclear powers.

X
This website uses cookies to enhance user experience and to analyze performance and traffic on our website. We also share information about your use of our site with our social media, advertising and analytics partners. Learn More / Do Not Sell My Personal Information
Accept Cookies
X
Cookie Preferences Cookie List

Do Not Sell My Personal Information

When you visit our website, we store cookies on your browser to collect information. The information collected might relate to you, your preferences or your device, and is mostly used to make the site work as you expect it to and to provide a more personalized web experience. However, you can choose not to allow certain types of cookies, which may impact your experience of the site and the services we are able to offer. Click on the different category headings to find out more and change our default settings according to your preference. You cannot opt-out of our First Party Strictly Necessary Cookies as they are deployed in order to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting the cookie banner and remembering your settings, to log into your account, to redirect you when you log out, etc.). For more information about the First and Third Party Cookies used please follow this link.

Allow All Cookies

Manage Consent Preferences

Strictly Necessary Cookies - Always Active

We do not allow you to opt-out of our certain cookies, as they are necessary to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting our cookie banner and remembering your privacy choices) and/or to monitor site performance. These cookies are not used in a way that constitutes a “sale” of your data under the CCPA. You can set your browser to block or alert you about these cookies, but some parts of the site will not work as intended if you do so. You can usually find these settings in the Options or Preferences menu of your browser. Visit www.allaboutcookies.org to learn more.

Sale of Personal Data, Targeting & Social Media Cookies

Under the California Consumer Privacy Act, you have the right to opt-out of the sale of your personal information to third parties. These cookies collect information for analytics and to personalize your experience with targeted ads. You may exercise your right to opt out of the sale of personal information by using this toggle switch. If you opt out we will not be able to offer you personalised ads and will not hand over your personal information to any third parties. Additionally, you may contact our legal department for further clarification about your rights as a California consumer by using this Exercise My Rights link

If you have enabled privacy controls on your browser (such as a plugin), we have to take that as a valid request to opt-out. Therefore we would not be able to track your activity through the web. This may affect our ability to personalize ads according to your preferences.

Targeting cookies may be set through our site by our advertising partners. They may be used by those companies to build a profile of your interests and show you relevant adverts on other sites. They do not store directly personal information, but are based on uniquely identifying your browser and internet device. If you do not allow these cookies, you will experience less targeted advertising.

Social media cookies are set by a range of social media services that we have added to the site to enable you to share our content with your friends and networks. They are capable of tracking your browser across other sites and building up a profile of your interests. This may impact the content and messages you see on other websites you visit. If you do not allow these cookies you may not be able to use or see these sharing tools.

If you want to opt out of all of our lead reports and lists, please submit a privacy request at our Do Not Sell page.

Save Settings
Cookie Preferences Cookie List

Cookie List

A cookie is a small piece of data (text file) that a website – when visited by a user – asks your browser to store on your device in order to remember information about you, such as your language preference or login information. Those cookies are set by us and called first-party cookies. We also use third-party cookies – which are cookies from a domain different than the domain of the website you are visiting – for our advertising and marketing efforts. More specifically, we use cookies and other tracking technologies for the following purposes:

Strictly Necessary Cookies

We do not allow you to opt-out of our certain cookies, as they are necessary to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting our cookie banner and remembering your privacy choices) and/or to monitor site performance. These cookies are not used in a way that constitutes a “sale” of your data under the CCPA. You can set your browser to block or alert you about these cookies, but some parts of the site will not work as intended if you do so. You can usually find these settings in the Options or Preferences menu of your browser. Visit www.allaboutcookies.org to learn more.

Functional Cookies

We do not allow you to opt-out of our certain cookies, as they are necessary to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting our cookie banner and remembering your privacy choices) and/or to monitor site performance. These cookies are not used in a way that constitutes a “sale” of your data under the CCPA. You can set your browser to block or alert you about these cookies, but some parts of the site will not work as intended if you do so. You can usually find these settings in the Options or Preferences menu of your browser. Visit www.allaboutcookies.org to learn more.

Performance Cookies

We do not allow you to opt-out of our certain cookies, as they are necessary to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting our cookie banner and remembering your privacy choices) and/or to monitor site performance. These cookies are not used in a way that constitutes a “sale” of your data under the CCPA. You can set your browser to block or alert you about these cookies, but some parts of the site will not work as intended if you do so. You can usually find these settings in the Options or Preferences menu of your browser. Visit www.allaboutcookies.org to learn more.

Sale of Personal Data

We also use cookies to personalize your experience on our websites, including by determining the most relevant content and advertisements to show you, and to monitor site traffic and performance, so that we may improve our websites and your experience. You may opt out of our use of such cookies (and the associated “sale” of your Personal Information) by using this toggle switch. You will still see some advertising, regardless of your selection. Because we do not track you across different devices, browsers and GEMG properties, your selection will take effect only on this browser, this device and this website.

Social Media Cookies

We also use cookies to personalize your experience on our websites, including by determining the most relevant content and advertisements to show you, and to monitor site traffic and performance, so that we may improve our websites and your experience. You may opt out of our use of such cookies (and the associated “sale” of your Personal Information) by using this toggle switch. You will still see some advertising, regardless of your selection. Because we do not track you across different devices, browsers and GEMG properties, your selection will take effect only on this browser, this device and this website.

Targeting Cookies

We also use cookies to personalize your experience on our websites, including by determining the most relevant content and advertisements to show you, and to monitor site traffic and performance, so that we may improve our websites and your experience. You may opt out of our use of such cookies (and the associated “sale” of your Personal Information) by using this toggle switch. You will still see some advertising, regardless of your selection. Because we do not track you across different devices, browsers and GEMG properties, your selection will take effect only on this browser, this device and this website.