First Lt. Paul Lee, 321st Missile Squadron missile combat crew commander, prepares to perform a simulated key turn of the Minuteman III weapon system during a Simulated Electronic Launch-Minuteman test inside the launch control center at a missile alert facility in the 90th Missile Wing's missile complex, Neb., April 11, 2017.

First Lt. Paul Lee, 321st Missile Squadron missile combat crew commander, prepares to perform a simulated key turn of the Minuteman III weapon system during a Simulated Electronic Launch-Minuteman test inside the launch control center at a missile alert facility in the 90th Missile Wing's missile complex, Neb., April 11, 2017. U.S. Air Force / Staff Sgt. Christopher Ruano

Who’s Afraid of an ICBM Review?

It’s worth spending five figures to assess whether to move ahead with a program that could cost more than a quarter-trillion dollars.

The Pentagon’s grant of $75,000 to the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace for a study of options for the land-based leg of the nuclear triad has prompted howls of protest from boosters of the Pentagon’s plan to build a new ICBM, known formally as the Ground-Based Nuclear Deterrent, or GBSD. Sen. James Inhofe, R-Okla., and Rep. Mike Rogers, R-Ala., ranking Republicans on the Senate and House armed services committees, have argued that the issue has already been well studied, and that the Carnegie effort should be canceled.

Why the uproar? Isn’t it worth spending $75,000 to assess whether to go ahead with a program that could cost $264 billion over its lifetime, including $110 billion for development and procurement? The outrage expressed by Inhofe and Rogers suggests that the fear the outcome of an assessment that might involve questioning the need for a new ICBM or proposing a significant change in DoD plans for the system. As James Acton, who is working on the Carnegie study, has noted, it will “identify the benefits, risks and unanswered questions associated with a number of alternatives.” This seems like common sense before locking the Pentagon into building a new ICBM that could last through 2075, at a phenomenal cost to U.S. taxpayers.

If anything, the Carnegie study should just be one element of a larger effort to determine whether a new ICBM is actually needed. Senate Armed Services Committee member Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., has called for a technical and budgetary assessment of the potential for refurbishing and extending the useful life of the current fleet of Minuteman III ICBMs as an alternative to building the GBSD. A 2020 report by the Union of Concerned Scientists noted that a number of past assessments, including ones by the Air Force, the RAND Corporation, and the Congressional Budget Office, have suggested that current ICBMs could be extended through at least 2045 for tens of billions of dollars less than the cost of building a new ICBM. The Air Force and the RAND corporation have since contradicted these earlier findings, but their new assertions appear to be based on questionable assumptions about when the decision point for building a new ICBM versus sticking with existing missiles should be. A recent RAND report that in part addresses the question of whether to modernize existing ICBMs or build a new one largely reiterates the Air Force’s own arguments. Hence the need for a new, independent assessment, as called for by Sen. Warren.

The larger question looming over this whole debate is whether ICBMs are needed at all. The current U.S. force of nuclear-armed bombers and hard-to-detect ballistic missile submarines is more than sufficient to deter any country from attacking the United States, and many analysts have concluded that keeping ICBMs in the force is far riskier than getting rid of them. As former Defense Secretary William Perry has noted, ICBMs are “some of the most dangerous weapons in the world” because the president would have only a matter of minutes to decide whether to launch them in a crisis, greatly increasing the risk of an accidental nuclear war based on a false alarm.

So why are we poised to invest hundreds of billions of dollars in a new ICBM? In part, the drive for the GBSD is based on outmoded thinking that treats the triad of nuclear-armed bombers, submarines, and land-based missiles as sacrosanct regardless of the current realities of the global nuclear balance. But another powerful reason for moving full speed ahead on a new ICBM is pork-barrel politics: the money that will flow to key contractors like Northrop Grumman and key states like Montana, Wyoming, Utah, North Dakota, and California for building and providing bases for the new system. The Senate even has an “ICBM Coalition” comprised of senators from four of the five key states noted above that has been remarkably successful over the years in blocking any changes in ICBM spending or deployment. And the top dozen contractors involved in the ICBM program have lavished millions of dollars in campaign contributions on key members of Congress to reinforce their case for building the new system, including hundreds of thousands to advocates like Sen. Inhofe and Rep. Rogers. Campaign dollars don’t always lead to decisions directly benefitting the donor, but they ensure access that makes it far easier to state their case.

As we approach the date for the release of the Biden team’s Nuclear Posture Review, one can only hope that the administration remains open to new thinking on the future of the ICBM force. Our long-term security depends on it.

William D. Hartung is a senior research fellow at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft and the author of "Prophets of War: Lockheed Martin and the Making of the Military Industrial Complex." Before joining the Quincy Institute, he was the director of the Arms and Security Program at the Center for International Policy and a co-director of the Center's Sustainable Defense Task Force.

X
This website uses cookies to enhance user experience and to analyze performance and traffic on our website. We also share information about your use of our site with our social media, advertising and analytics partners. Learn More / Do Not Sell My Personal Information
Accept Cookies
X
Cookie Preferences Cookie List

Do Not Sell My Personal Information

When you visit our website, we store cookies on your browser to collect information. The information collected might relate to you, your preferences or your device, and is mostly used to make the site work as you expect it to and to provide a more personalized web experience. However, you can choose not to allow certain types of cookies, which may impact your experience of the site and the services we are able to offer. Click on the different category headings to find out more and change our default settings according to your preference. You cannot opt-out of our First Party Strictly Necessary Cookies as they are deployed in order to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting the cookie banner and remembering your settings, to log into your account, to redirect you when you log out, etc.). For more information about the First and Third Party Cookies used please follow this link.

Allow All Cookies

Manage Consent Preferences

Strictly Necessary Cookies - Always Active

We do not allow you to opt-out of our certain cookies, as they are necessary to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting our cookie banner and remembering your privacy choices) and/or to monitor site performance. These cookies are not used in a way that constitutes a “sale” of your data under the CCPA. You can set your browser to block or alert you about these cookies, but some parts of the site will not work as intended if you do so. You can usually find these settings in the Options or Preferences menu of your browser. Visit www.allaboutcookies.org to learn more.

Sale of Personal Data, Targeting & Social Media Cookies

Under the California Consumer Privacy Act, you have the right to opt-out of the sale of your personal information to third parties. These cookies collect information for analytics and to personalize your experience with targeted ads. You may exercise your right to opt out of the sale of personal information by using this toggle switch. If you opt out we will not be able to offer you personalised ads and will not hand over your personal information to any third parties. Additionally, you may contact our legal department for further clarification about your rights as a California consumer by using this Exercise My Rights link

If you have enabled privacy controls on your browser (such as a plugin), we have to take that as a valid request to opt-out. Therefore we would not be able to track your activity through the web. This may affect our ability to personalize ads according to your preferences.

Targeting cookies may be set through our site by our advertising partners. They may be used by those companies to build a profile of your interests and show you relevant adverts on other sites. They do not store directly personal information, but are based on uniquely identifying your browser and internet device. If you do not allow these cookies, you will experience less targeted advertising.

Social media cookies are set by a range of social media services that we have added to the site to enable you to share our content with your friends and networks. They are capable of tracking your browser across other sites and building up a profile of your interests. This may impact the content and messages you see on other websites you visit. If you do not allow these cookies you may not be able to use or see these sharing tools.

If you want to opt out of all of our lead reports and lists, please submit a privacy request at our Do Not Sell page.

Save Settings
Cookie Preferences Cookie List

Cookie List

A cookie is a small piece of data (text file) that a website – when visited by a user – asks your browser to store on your device in order to remember information about you, such as your language preference or login information. Those cookies are set by us and called first-party cookies. We also use third-party cookies – which are cookies from a domain different than the domain of the website you are visiting – for our advertising and marketing efforts. More specifically, we use cookies and other tracking technologies for the following purposes:

Strictly Necessary Cookies

We do not allow you to opt-out of our certain cookies, as they are necessary to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting our cookie banner and remembering your privacy choices) and/or to monitor site performance. These cookies are not used in a way that constitutes a “sale” of your data under the CCPA. You can set your browser to block or alert you about these cookies, but some parts of the site will not work as intended if you do so. You can usually find these settings in the Options or Preferences menu of your browser. Visit www.allaboutcookies.org to learn more.

Functional Cookies

We do not allow you to opt-out of our certain cookies, as they are necessary to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting our cookie banner and remembering your privacy choices) and/or to monitor site performance. These cookies are not used in a way that constitutes a “sale” of your data under the CCPA. You can set your browser to block or alert you about these cookies, but some parts of the site will not work as intended if you do so. You can usually find these settings in the Options or Preferences menu of your browser. Visit www.allaboutcookies.org to learn more.

Performance Cookies

We do not allow you to opt-out of our certain cookies, as they are necessary to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting our cookie banner and remembering your privacy choices) and/or to monitor site performance. These cookies are not used in a way that constitutes a “sale” of your data under the CCPA. You can set your browser to block or alert you about these cookies, but some parts of the site will not work as intended if you do so. You can usually find these settings in the Options or Preferences menu of your browser. Visit www.allaboutcookies.org to learn more.

Sale of Personal Data

We also use cookies to personalize your experience on our websites, including by determining the most relevant content and advertisements to show you, and to monitor site traffic and performance, so that we may improve our websites and your experience. You may opt out of our use of such cookies (and the associated “sale” of your Personal Information) by using this toggle switch. You will still see some advertising, regardless of your selection. Because we do not track you across different devices, browsers and GEMG properties, your selection will take effect only on this browser, this device and this website.

Social Media Cookies

We also use cookies to personalize your experience on our websites, including by determining the most relevant content and advertisements to show you, and to monitor site traffic and performance, so that we may improve our websites and your experience. You may opt out of our use of such cookies (and the associated “sale” of your Personal Information) by using this toggle switch. You will still see some advertising, regardless of your selection. Because we do not track you across different devices, browsers and GEMG properties, your selection will take effect only on this browser, this device and this website.

Targeting Cookies

We also use cookies to personalize your experience on our websites, including by determining the most relevant content and advertisements to show you, and to monitor site traffic and performance, so that we may improve our websites and your experience. You may opt out of our use of such cookies (and the associated “sale” of your Personal Information) by using this toggle switch. You will still see some advertising, regardless of your selection. Because we do not track you across different devices, browsers and GEMG properties, your selection will take effect only on this browser, this device and this website.