Guam is one place the U.S. could deploy new post-INF missiles in the Pacific. There aren't many other likely choices.

Guam is one place the U.S. could deploy new post-INF missiles in the Pacific. There aren't many other likely choices. Air Force Staff Sgt. Kyle Johnson

Where Could the US Put Its Post-INF Missiles?

It would be a hard slog to get allies to agree to any sort of basing agreement.

The Trump administration said leaving the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty would allow the development and deployment of strategically and tactically new missiles in the Pacific region. But it’s not at all clear that U.S. officials will be able to persuade its allies to accept these missiles in useful locations.

“The United States absolutely needs a unified defensive concept for the First Island Chain in Asia, and this may rely on ship or land-based missiles. There is, however, very little allied appetite for receiving U.S. ground-based missiles at the moment,” said Mira Rapp-Hooper, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations.

This became apparent even before the U.S. withdrew from the INF pact. Last August, Defense Secretary Mark Esper said he wanted to deploy a new generation of soon-to-be-unbanned ground-launched missiles to Asia. Officials in Australia and South Korea quickly responded that they had no plans to discuss the deployment of such missiles on their soil.

Related: Put US Post-INF Missiles into Production

Related: Building Post-INF Missiles Would Be a Waste, or Worse

Related: The US Just Launched a Long-Outlawed Missile. Welcome to the Post-INF World

Yet Thomas Karako, Senior Fellow at the Center for Strategic & International Studies said a wider-ranging dialogue about Asia-Pacific security and mutual defense goals would lead to fruitful basing agreements with allies. “It’s imperative to connect our security objectives first before discussing how these missiles might serve us and our allies.”

Others were less optimistic. Steven Pifer, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, noted that even missile-defense deployments are a hard sell to America’s Pacific allies; reaching any sort of hosting agreement would “take a lot of American negotiating capital.” 

And even if some allies agree to host U.S. missiles, the Heritage Foundation’s Dean Cheng said, they may not be willing to involve themselves in a crisis between the United States and China or Russia. 

Aside from a patient dialogue with allies over basing agreements, what other options are there? In a December op-ed, the Hudson Institute’s Rebeccah Heinrichs and Tim Morrison, former senior arms control official at the National Security Council suggested that the Trump administration reach out to Pacific allies to co-finance and co-develop missiles, both to shoulder more of the burden of their defense, and to get around any reluctance to harbor U.S.-made arms.

But other experts said such proposals were unlikely to bear fruit. For one thing, the Missile Technology Control Regime discourages nations from proliferating missiles and missile technology. 

“The MTCR remains on the books as a regional and international commitment, so transferring technology that would help lead to longer range missile development is currently discouraged,” Cheng said. “This would include helping in development or outright transfer. [It is not] clear that this would necessarily improve regional security, since such technology transfers may lead to subsequent sales or transfers to third parties.” 

Rapp-Hooper said that burden-sharing agreements were unlikely, “yet allies might be persuaded to develop indigenous systems, which they would ideally network over time — itself a major political and technical lift.” 

U.S. allies in the region, notably Japan and South Korea, already are developing intermediate-range missile technology. 

The experts were more sanguine about the chances that deploying new post-INF missiles would destabilize the Asia-Pacific region. They noted that Russia and China have already been manufacturing and deploying such missiles. 

“The U.S. deployment of these missiles would not introduce a new capability into the region, but rather give the U.S. more options to meet a growing military challenge from Beijing,” said Abraham Denmark, who runs the Woodrow Wilson Center’s Asia Program. “That being said, it is important for Washington to engage Beijing and Moscow on these issues, and identify opportunities to enhance transparency and address concerns about stability and crisis management.”

Pifer suggests that this moment offers a chance to develop an agreement to limit INF-type weapons between China, Russia, and the United States. 

Karako believes that moment will come only after years of intermediate-range missile deployment in the region. 

Bottom line, Denmark said: “The U.S. still has a lot of homework to do on what kind of missiles it would look to field and how they would operate in various regional contingencies. If the U.S. can make the case to its allies and partners that the deployment of these missiles would enhance deterrence and strengthen U.S. capabilities, some allies may start to come around.” 

X
This website uses cookies to enhance user experience and to analyze performance and traffic on our website. We also share information about your use of our site with our social media, advertising and analytics partners. Learn More / Do Not Sell My Personal Information
Accept Cookies
X
Cookie Preferences Cookie List

Do Not Sell My Personal Information

When you visit our website, we store cookies on your browser to collect information. The information collected might relate to you, your preferences or your device, and is mostly used to make the site work as you expect it to and to provide a more personalized web experience. However, you can choose not to allow certain types of cookies, which may impact your experience of the site and the services we are able to offer. Click on the different category headings to find out more and change our default settings according to your preference. You cannot opt-out of our First Party Strictly Necessary Cookies as they are deployed in order to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting the cookie banner and remembering your settings, to log into your account, to redirect you when you log out, etc.). For more information about the First and Third Party Cookies used please follow this link.

Allow All Cookies

Manage Consent Preferences

Strictly Necessary Cookies - Always Active

We do not allow you to opt-out of our certain cookies, as they are necessary to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting our cookie banner and remembering your privacy choices) and/or to monitor site performance. These cookies are not used in a way that constitutes a “sale” of your data under the CCPA. You can set your browser to block or alert you about these cookies, but some parts of the site will not work as intended if you do so. You can usually find these settings in the Options or Preferences menu of your browser. Visit www.allaboutcookies.org to learn more.

Sale of Personal Data, Targeting & Social Media Cookies

Under the California Consumer Privacy Act, you have the right to opt-out of the sale of your personal information to third parties. These cookies collect information for analytics and to personalize your experience with targeted ads. You may exercise your right to opt out of the sale of personal information by using this toggle switch. If you opt out we will not be able to offer you personalised ads and will not hand over your personal information to any third parties. Additionally, you may contact our legal department for further clarification about your rights as a California consumer by using this Exercise My Rights link

If you have enabled privacy controls on your browser (such as a plugin), we have to take that as a valid request to opt-out. Therefore we would not be able to track your activity through the web. This may affect our ability to personalize ads according to your preferences.

Targeting cookies may be set through our site by our advertising partners. They may be used by those companies to build a profile of your interests and show you relevant adverts on other sites. They do not store directly personal information, but are based on uniquely identifying your browser and internet device. If you do not allow these cookies, you will experience less targeted advertising.

Social media cookies are set by a range of social media services that we have added to the site to enable you to share our content with your friends and networks. They are capable of tracking your browser across other sites and building up a profile of your interests. This may impact the content and messages you see on other websites you visit. If you do not allow these cookies you may not be able to use or see these sharing tools.

If you want to opt out of all of our lead reports and lists, please submit a privacy request at our Do Not Sell page.

Save Settings
Cookie Preferences Cookie List

Cookie List

A cookie is a small piece of data (text file) that a website – when visited by a user – asks your browser to store on your device in order to remember information about you, such as your language preference or login information. Those cookies are set by us and called first-party cookies. We also use third-party cookies – which are cookies from a domain different than the domain of the website you are visiting – for our advertising and marketing efforts. More specifically, we use cookies and other tracking technologies for the following purposes:

Strictly Necessary Cookies

We do not allow you to opt-out of our certain cookies, as they are necessary to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting our cookie banner and remembering your privacy choices) and/or to monitor site performance. These cookies are not used in a way that constitutes a “sale” of your data under the CCPA. You can set your browser to block or alert you about these cookies, but some parts of the site will not work as intended if you do so. You can usually find these settings in the Options or Preferences menu of your browser. Visit www.allaboutcookies.org to learn more.

Functional Cookies

We do not allow you to opt-out of our certain cookies, as they are necessary to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting our cookie banner and remembering your privacy choices) and/or to monitor site performance. These cookies are not used in a way that constitutes a “sale” of your data under the CCPA. You can set your browser to block or alert you about these cookies, but some parts of the site will not work as intended if you do so. You can usually find these settings in the Options or Preferences menu of your browser. Visit www.allaboutcookies.org to learn more.

Performance Cookies

We do not allow you to opt-out of our certain cookies, as they are necessary to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting our cookie banner and remembering your privacy choices) and/or to monitor site performance. These cookies are not used in a way that constitutes a “sale” of your data under the CCPA. You can set your browser to block or alert you about these cookies, but some parts of the site will not work as intended if you do so. You can usually find these settings in the Options or Preferences menu of your browser. Visit www.allaboutcookies.org to learn more.

Sale of Personal Data

We also use cookies to personalize your experience on our websites, including by determining the most relevant content and advertisements to show you, and to monitor site traffic and performance, so that we may improve our websites and your experience. You may opt out of our use of such cookies (and the associated “sale” of your Personal Information) by using this toggle switch. You will still see some advertising, regardless of your selection. Because we do not track you across different devices, browsers and GEMG properties, your selection will take effect only on this browser, this device and this website.

Social Media Cookies

We also use cookies to personalize your experience on our websites, including by determining the most relevant content and advertisements to show you, and to monitor site traffic and performance, so that we may improve our websites and your experience. You may opt out of our use of such cookies (and the associated “sale” of your Personal Information) by using this toggle switch. You will still see some advertising, regardless of your selection. Because we do not track you across different devices, browsers and GEMG properties, your selection will take effect only on this browser, this device and this website.

Targeting Cookies

We also use cookies to personalize your experience on our websites, including by determining the most relevant content and advertisements to show you, and to monitor site traffic and performance, so that we may improve our websites and your experience. You may opt out of our use of such cookies (and the associated “sale” of your Personal Information) by using this toggle switch. You will still see some advertising, regardless of your selection. Because we do not track you across different devices, browsers and GEMG properties, your selection will take effect only on this browser, this device and this website.