In this photo released by the Taiwan Military News Agency, Taiwanese artillery guns fire live round during the Han Guang exercises held in Taichung, Taiwan, on Thursday, Sept. 16, 2021.

In this photo released by the Taiwan Military News Agency, Taiwanese artillery guns fire live round during the Han Guang exercises held in Taichung, Taiwan, on Thursday, Sept. 16, 2021. Military News Agency via AP

Taiwan Emerges as a ‘Pre-eminent Issue’ For CIA’s New China Directorate

A takeover might look like Russia’s takeover of Crimea and might be coordinated with the Kremlin.

SEA ISLAND, Georgia—A possible Chinese takeover of Taiwan is “one of the No. 1 issues” occupying the new China Mission Center, CIA deputy director David Cohen said on Sunday at an intelligence community conference in Georgia. 

In March, then-INDOPACOM commander Adm. Philip Davidson told the Senate Armed Services Committee that the Chinese threat toward Taiwan could “manifest...in the next six years.” Davidson has since left the command but  other senior military officials have since reiterated that estimate Defense One on background. 

Cohen, who appeared virtually at the Cipher Brief conference here, declined to comment specifically on Davidson’s six-year figure but did say that Taiwan has emerged “as one of the pre-eminent issues in our kind of analysis, trying to understand precisely how [Chinese leader] Xi Jinping is thinking about Taiwan, how is he thinking about it in relation to the [20th Chinese Communist Party Congress] that's coming up [in 2022], extended in relation to that comparative strength of Chinese military and U.S. military.” 

The new center is focused on providing the policy community with “indicators” that reveal Chinese military intentions related to Taiwan and other factors that might drive Xi’s thinking on the subject, Cohen said, so “the policy community can figure out which levers they want to pull here.”

“Taiwan is going to be the test” of U.S. resolve and credibility, said Norman Roule, a former National Intelligence Manager for Iran at the Office of the Director of National Intelligence. 

Roule said the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan has made it harder to credibly threaten China with retaliation should it invade Taiwan.

“Historically, people have forgotten where we talked about using nuclear weapons against China [over military action against] Taiwan. And, no, we're not in that role right now, but our resolve on China on Taiwan shouldn’t be in question. People shouldn’t say, ‘If you didn't stand for Afghanistan will you do staff work for other countries?’” 

Mark Kelton, a former CIA deputy director, said that the Chinese play for Taiwan will likely resemble the hybrid and non-overt warfare tactics that Russia used as part of its illegal annexation of Crimea and assault on Ukraine in 2014, a kind of creeping takeover occurring, at first, beyond the parameters of regular war as opposed to a large and obvious military assault that might instigate a coordinated multi-nation response. 

Kelton cast the likelihood of a Chinese move on Taiwan as a near certainty and Russia would likely help. He said Xi has “undoubtedly concluded that it will be to his advantage, when he decides to move on Taiwa,n to coordinate that activity with the Russians to complicate the United States problem of dealing with [multiple] crises.”

One of the key features of Russia’s continued aggression toward Ukraine is cyber operations against civilian and military targets. 

Intelligence and military officials often refer to China as a key cyber threat actor. Rob Joyce, who leads the National Security Agency’s cybersecurity directorate, said China is becoming more aggressive and even overt in its effort to develop vulnerabilities in government and consumer devices and software. He pointed to a June cybersecurity contest in China, the Tianfu Cup, which paid cash prizes for hackers who found vulnerabilities in deployed software. Such “bug bounties” have become increasingly common sponsored events to find and fix vulnerabilities in their software. But such a contest takes on a malicious tone when undertaken by the Chinese government. 

“They created an effort for their actors, vulnerability analysts, their researchers to go in and try and find holes in the latest hardware, [operating systems], Windows 10, Chrome, Safari, find hacks in iPhone, Bluetooth, Linux operating systems,” Joyce said. “all of these things that are just Western commercial market guiding capabilities. They found exploits for all of them. Every single one. That tells me...China is investing in that to develop that as a capability.”

X
This website uses cookies to enhance user experience and to analyze performance and traffic on our website. We also share information about your use of our site with our social media, advertising and analytics partners. Learn More / Do Not Sell My Personal Information
Accept Cookies
X
Cookie Preferences Cookie List

Do Not Sell My Personal Information

When you visit our website, we store cookies on your browser to collect information. The information collected might relate to you, your preferences or your device, and is mostly used to make the site work as you expect it to and to provide a more personalized web experience. However, you can choose not to allow certain types of cookies, which may impact your experience of the site and the services we are able to offer. Click on the different category headings to find out more and change our default settings according to your preference. You cannot opt-out of our First Party Strictly Necessary Cookies as they are deployed in order to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting the cookie banner and remembering your settings, to log into your account, to redirect you when you log out, etc.). For more information about the First and Third Party Cookies used please follow this link.

Allow All Cookies

Manage Consent Preferences

Strictly Necessary Cookies - Always Active

We do not allow you to opt-out of our certain cookies, as they are necessary to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting our cookie banner and remembering your privacy choices) and/or to monitor site performance. These cookies are not used in a way that constitutes a “sale” of your data under the CCPA. You can set your browser to block or alert you about these cookies, but some parts of the site will not work as intended if you do so. You can usually find these settings in the Options or Preferences menu of your browser. Visit www.allaboutcookies.org to learn more.

Sale of Personal Data, Targeting & Social Media Cookies

Under the California Consumer Privacy Act, you have the right to opt-out of the sale of your personal information to third parties. These cookies collect information for analytics and to personalize your experience with targeted ads. You may exercise your right to opt out of the sale of personal information by using this toggle switch. If you opt out we will not be able to offer you personalised ads and will not hand over your personal information to any third parties. Additionally, you may contact our legal department for further clarification about your rights as a California consumer by using this Exercise My Rights link

If you have enabled privacy controls on your browser (such as a plugin), we have to take that as a valid request to opt-out. Therefore we would not be able to track your activity through the web. This may affect our ability to personalize ads according to your preferences.

Targeting cookies may be set through our site by our advertising partners. They may be used by those companies to build a profile of your interests and show you relevant adverts on other sites. They do not store directly personal information, but are based on uniquely identifying your browser and internet device. If you do not allow these cookies, you will experience less targeted advertising.

Social media cookies are set by a range of social media services that we have added to the site to enable you to share our content with your friends and networks. They are capable of tracking your browser across other sites and building up a profile of your interests. This may impact the content and messages you see on other websites you visit. If you do not allow these cookies you may not be able to use or see these sharing tools.

If you want to opt out of all of our lead reports and lists, please submit a privacy request at our Do Not Sell page.

Save Settings
Cookie Preferences Cookie List

Cookie List

A cookie is a small piece of data (text file) that a website – when visited by a user – asks your browser to store on your device in order to remember information about you, such as your language preference or login information. Those cookies are set by us and called first-party cookies. We also use third-party cookies – which are cookies from a domain different than the domain of the website you are visiting – for our advertising and marketing efforts. More specifically, we use cookies and other tracking technologies for the following purposes:

Strictly Necessary Cookies

We do not allow you to opt-out of our certain cookies, as they are necessary to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting our cookie banner and remembering your privacy choices) and/or to monitor site performance. These cookies are not used in a way that constitutes a “sale” of your data under the CCPA. You can set your browser to block or alert you about these cookies, but some parts of the site will not work as intended if you do so. You can usually find these settings in the Options or Preferences menu of your browser. Visit www.allaboutcookies.org to learn more.

Functional Cookies

We do not allow you to opt-out of our certain cookies, as they are necessary to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting our cookie banner and remembering your privacy choices) and/or to monitor site performance. These cookies are not used in a way that constitutes a “sale” of your data under the CCPA. You can set your browser to block or alert you about these cookies, but some parts of the site will not work as intended if you do so. You can usually find these settings in the Options or Preferences menu of your browser. Visit www.allaboutcookies.org to learn more.

Performance Cookies

We do not allow you to opt-out of our certain cookies, as they are necessary to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting our cookie banner and remembering your privacy choices) and/or to monitor site performance. These cookies are not used in a way that constitutes a “sale” of your data under the CCPA. You can set your browser to block or alert you about these cookies, but some parts of the site will not work as intended if you do so. You can usually find these settings in the Options or Preferences menu of your browser. Visit www.allaboutcookies.org to learn more.

Sale of Personal Data

We also use cookies to personalize your experience on our websites, including by determining the most relevant content and advertisements to show you, and to monitor site traffic and performance, so that we may improve our websites and your experience. You may opt out of our use of such cookies (and the associated “sale” of your Personal Information) by using this toggle switch. You will still see some advertising, regardless of your selection. Because we do not track you across different devices, browsers and GEMG properties, your selection will take effect only on this browser, this device and this website.

Social Media Cookies

We also use cookies to personalize your experience on our websites, including by determining the most relevant content and advertisements to show you, and to monitor site traffic and performance, so that we may improve our websites and your experience. You may opt out of our use of such cookies (and the associated “sale” of your Personal Information) by using this toggle switch. You will still see some advertising, regardless of your selection. Because we do not track you across different devices, browsers and GEMG properties, your selection will take effect only on this browser, this device and this website.

Targeting Cookies

We also use cookies to personalize your experience on our websites, including by determining the most relevant content and advertisements to show you, and to monitor site traffic and performance, so that we may improve our websites and your experience. You may opt out of our use of such cookies (and the associated “sale” of your Personal Information) by using this toggle switch. You will still see some advertising, regardless of your selection. Because we do not track you across different devices, browsers and GEMG properties, your selection will take effect only on this browser, this device and this website.