Threats

Today's D Brief: Ukraine hits Crimea bridge; Dam-break consequences; Modi in DC; Allies buy more arms; And a bit more.

Ben Watson

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Senior Multimedia Editor, Defense One

Another bridge linking Ukraine to its Russian-occupied Crimean peninsula was attacked Thursday in what one Ukrainian official described as “a blow to the military logistics of the occupiers.” 

Location: Southern Kherson, bordering Crimea. Reuters reports Ukrainians know it as the Chonhar road bridge, and Russians call it the Chongar Bridge. “It is on a route used by the Russian military to move between Crimea and other parts of Ukraine under its control,” the wire service reports. 

Russian occupation officials say British-provided Storm Shadow cruise missiles hit the bridge, and promised to repair the damage, which you can see here, “in the very near future.” The Associated Press has a bit more, here. 

Counteroffensive latest: It’s still a tough slog and will likely remain that way for some time. Ukrainian President Volodymir Zelenskyy seems to know this perhaps as well as anyone. This is partly why he spoke to the BBC Wednesday to encourage patience. “Some people believe this is a Hollywood movie and expect results now. It’s not. What’s at stake is people’s lives,” he said.

There are, however, some indications that Russian forces are taking heavy losses in certain places where Ukrainian troops are concentrating their efforts. But Ukraine is facing significant resistance, too. “If Ukrainian forces sustain too much attrition, the counteroffensive could culminate early,” said Rob Lee of the Foreign Policy Research Institute, writing Wednesday on Twitter. “But, if Russia sustains enough losses, it could create the conditions for further Ukrainian advances,” he noted. 

A word of caution from this side of the Atlantic: “Losses are inevitable on both sides, but careful operational planning on the Ukrainian side likely seeks to mitigate and balance this reality with the equally important observation that the degradation of Russian manpower is a valuable objective,” analysts at the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War wrote in their Wednesday evening assessment. What’s more, they argue, “The success of Ukrainian counteroffensives should not be judged solely on day-to-day changes in control of terrain, as the wider operational intentions of Ukrainian attacks along the entire frontline may be premised on gradually degrading, exhausting, and expending Russian capabilities in preparation for additional offensive pushes.” Read more, here. 

While Putin still alleges Ukraine is run by Nazis, Zelenskyy still insists Ukraine won’t stop fighting so long as Russia occupies Ukrainian land. “No matter how far we advance in our counter-offensive, we will not agree to a frozen conflict because that is war, that is a prospectless development for Ukraine,” Zelenskyy told the BBC. (And when it comes to Putin’s Nazi allegations, the Ukrainian president took a moment to gather himself before responding, “It's like he doesn't fully understand his words. Apologies, but it's like he is the second king of antisemitism after Hitler.”)

Coverage continues below the fold…

Welcome to this Thursday edition of The D Brief, brought to you by Ben Watson with Bradley Peniston. On this day in 1870, the U.S. Department of Justice was established as a response to Ku Klux Klan terrorism and as a way to oversee Reconstruction efforts across the American south. 

New: President Zelenskyy alleged Thursday that “Russia is considering a scenario of a terrorist attack on the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant,” citing the work of Ukrainian intelligence officials. “They have prepared everything for this,” the president said in a video address Thursday morning.
“This time it should not be like with Kakhovka,” which is the dam that burst after an apparent explosion while under Russian control on June 6. “The world has been warned, so the world can and must act,” Zelenskyy said, though it’s unclear what precisely what nations around the world can do about this alleged scenario.
Speaking of the Kakhovka dam, “four canal networks have become disconnected from the reservoir” since the dam was destroyed more than two weeks ago, the BBC reported Thursday with before-and-after satellite imagery from Planet Labs. Those canals were a source of drinking water and “provided irrigation for vast areas of farmland,” which are now at risk of drought until the dam is repaired. And it’s unclear when that dangerous undertaking may begin.
The long view: Could this Ukraine invasion eventually spur positive change in Russian society? “The most likely path to a better Russia now runs through Ukrainian success,” argues former CIA-er Andrea Kendall-Taylor, along with Erica Frantz of Michigan State University, in the July/August issue of Foreign Affairs.
It’s admittedly a tall order, the two concede. After all, “The historical track-record of long-time personalist autocrats suggests that once these leaders make it to 20 years in power—and Putin has been there for 23—they tend to make it to about 36 years,” Kendall-Taylor tweeted Tuesday in an explanatory thread. And “As long as the war continues, Putin’s position is more secure, making positive change less likely,” she adds.
But should Ukraine somehow wind up winning this war, which feels like an even taller order, that outcome “raises the possibility, even if only slightly, that Putin could be forced out of office, creating an opening for a new style of Russian government,” Kendall-Taylor says. “Such a resounding defeat is also required to enable Russians to shed their imperialist ambitions and to teach the country’s future elites a valuable lesson about the limits of military power,” Franzt and Kendall-Taylor write in FA. Read their take in full, here.
The latest from NATO: British Defense Minister Ben Wallace took his name out of the running to replace alliance Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg, he told The Economist this week. He also said U.S. President Joe Biden wants Stoltenberg to stay on in the job for a bit longer.
This afternoon on Capitol Hill, the Pentagon’s Laura Cooper and Doug Jones from the State Department will be testifying before House lawmakers on “U.S. Policy towards Europe and NATO” ahead of the alliance’s annual summit next month in Lithuania.
“All told, we have marshaled over $28 billion in security assistance commitments from [nearly 50] allies and partners,” Cooper wrote in her opening remarks. That includes nine European countries that have committed more than $1 billion each. “We are also starting to see allies make longer-term funding commitments,” she says. For example, “Germany has authorized about $13 billion in support to Ukraine over the next nine to ten years. Norway has committed over $7 billion in support over five years. On June 19, Denmark announced $3.2 billion in funding over five years.”
Worth noting: For just the second time ever, “heads of state from Australia, Japan, New Zealand, and South Korea have been invited to the NATO Summit to coordinate on an agenda of shared security challenges,” Doug Jones writes in his opening statement.
Meanwhile, “2023 will be the ninth consecutive year of defense spending growth in real-terms for non-U.S. allies, with more than $350 billion spent by non-U.S. Allies since Russia’s illegal purported ‘annexation’ of Crimea in 2014,” Jones says. “But this is not enough, and allies need to do more,” he adds. Catch the full hearing before the House Foreign Affairs Europe Subcommittee at 1 p.m. ET, via YouTube, here. 
Additional reading: 

And lastly: Modi arrives in DC. Indian prime minister Narendra Modi touched down on Wednesday for “a high-level, three-day state visit to Washington that includes talks in the Oval Office, a historic address to the US Congress, and a glittering state dinner,” the New York Times reports.
It will be just the third state dinner thrown by President Biden, yet the visit is to see something even rarer yet: Modi’s first press conference since becoming prime minister nine years ago.
National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan has called the meeting between the U.S. and Indian leaders part of an effort to build the “‘defining relationship’ of the 21st century.”
But human-rights groups are fiercely criticizing Biden’s decision to roll out the red carpet. “Prime Minister Modi has presided over a period of rapid deterioration of human rights protections in India, including increasing violence against religious minorities, shrinking civil society space, and the criminalization of dissent,” Amnesty International said in a June 20 statement.

NEXT STORY: Today's D Brief: $6B accounting goof; India’s PM in DC; Interpol sees right-wing terror spike; Sub-rescue ships deployed; And a bit more.