This frame grab from video released on Saturday, July 22, 2017 and provided by the government-controlled Syrian Central Military Media, shows Hezbollah fighters taking position during clashes with al-Qaida-linked militants in an area on the Lebanon-Syria

This frame grab from video released on Saturday, July 22, 2017 and provided by the government-controlled Syrian Central Military Media, shows Hezbollah fighters taking position during clashes with al-Qaida-linked militants in an area on the Lebanon-Syria ASSOCIATED PRESS

Trump’s Ceasefire May Hand Russia the Keys to Southwestern Syria

The US must quickly send monitors to the ‘safe zones’ — or cede yet more regional influence to Moscow and Tehran.

The U.S.-Russia agreement on a ceasefire in southwestern Syria, hailed by President Trump as one of the seminal achievements of his bilateral meeting with Russian President Putin in Hamburg, will serve as an early test of Russia’s willingness to work with the Trump administration in Syria. Unfortunately, the agreement leaves open many questions about implementation, and, judging by past practice, is likely to be abused by Russia to help the Assad regime consolidate power. Like the agreement on a collaborative cybersecurity unit, it is just one more indication of how Putin ate Trump’s lunch (or was it dinner?) at the G20 summit.

The ceasefire agreement is formally between Russia, the United States, and Jordan, and applies to a portion of southwestern Syria near the Jordanian and Israeli borders. It reportedly makes geographically delimited “safe zones” off-limits to non-Syrian militias (presumably meaning Hezbollah and Iran’s Quds Force, though it is unclear if these groups are mentioned by name), as well as Al Qaeda and other jihadist groups. The problem with the agreement has to do with enforcement of these “safe zones.” Who determines what groups get to enter or exit, and if violence breaks out, who enforces a return to the ceasefire? Two of the biggest potential spoilers, Iran and Hezbollah, are not parties to the deal. And yet they are Russia’s closest allies in propping up the Assad regime. In concert with Assad, they have waged a murderous campaign against Syria’s opposition for years. The result is a deal that could well leave the proverbial fox – in this case, Russia – guarding the henhouse.

Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov has said that Russia, the United States, and Jordan will be involved in enforcement. However, the Pentagon is focused on operations in Mosul and Raqqa hundreds of miles away; commanders on the ground would surely see a U.S. military presence in southwestern Syria as a costly and unnecessary diversion of manpower in the fight against the Islamic State. Given limited intelligence- surveillance-reconnaissance assets in the region, it is also unlikely that U.S. Central Command would be happy diverting scarce ISR platforms to monitor the ceasefire. And even if U.S. or Jordanian ISR were overhead, would they be able to distinguish Hezbollah or Shia militias who have reflagged themselves as other groups? All this, along with Jordan’s reluctance to go all-in across the border, means that the Trump-Putin ceasefire is likely to hand Russia the keys to southwestern Syria.

Lavrov has also said that Russian military police – a force that has been allied with Assad, Iran, and Hezbollah – would be in charge of determining who has access to the ceasefire zones and what constitutes permissible humanitarian aid. (Recall that in Ukraine, Russia has covertly supplied its proxies with weapons under the guise of “humanitarian aid” to the local population.) The agreement also reportedly gives Russia the right to use force against groups in the ceasefire zone that it deems to be hostile actors, like Al Qaeda. Don’t get me wrong: eliminating Al Qaeda is a fine goal, but the problem here is that Russia has a long track record of referring to every moderate opposition group in Syria as an Al Qaeda offshoot.

Going into the G20 meeting, Putin knew, of course, that Trump would be eager to make progress on Syria. By quickly agreeing to a deal before expert negotiators had a chance to develop a solid monitoring and enforcement mechanism, perhaps involving opposition groups on the ground, Trump appears to have been suckered into a flawed agreement. Without credible monitoring and enforcement, Iranian-backed Shia militias and Hezbollah could start quietly infiltrating southwestern Syria, setting up the Assad regime and its Iranian friends to consolidate control over the border areas near Israel and Lebanon. This would be a major strategic play. Iran’s potential long-term control over the region near the Golan Heights is likely the primary reason that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu came out so forcefully against the deal, despite having reportedly been consulted on it beforehand.

Trump’s argument that the ceasefire is saving lives, even temporarily, is a powerful one. But even if the death toll slows in the southwestern “safe zones,” regime troops freed up by the agreement are already launching attacks elsewhere, like the new offensive against opposition forces in eastern Ghouta.

The root of the problem here is that Trump seems to think that if only he can talk directly with the Russian leader on what are ostensibly common interests like defeating extremism in Syria, he will succeed where others have failed. But Russia is not really fighting extremism in Syria; it is actually exacerbating it by aligning itself with Assad, Hezbollah, and Iran against a panoply of Sunni groups, some moderate and others extremist. So while Russia has an objective interest in defeating the Islamic State, it also has other proximate aims in the near term: consolidating Assad’s power over the opposition, forcing the international community and the United States to abide by Russia’s terms for the future political makeup of Syria, and building its influence in the region.

The best that can be done now is to quickly remedy the flaws with monitoring and enforcement of the ceasefire by ensuring that opposition groups on the ground have a role, and not just Russian military police. 

X
This website uses cookies to enhance user experience and to analyze performance and traffic on our website. We also share information about your use of our site with our social media, advertising and analytics partners. Learn More / Do Not Sell My Personal Information
Accept Cookies
X
Cookie Preferences Cookie List

Do Not Sell My Personal Information

When you visit our website, we store cookies on your browser to collect information. The information collected might relate to you, your preferences or your device, and is mostly used to make the site work as you expect it to and to provide a more personalized web experience. However, you can choose not to allow certain types of cookies, which may impact your experience of the site and the services we are able to offer. Click on the different category headings to find out more and change our default settings according to your preference. You cannot opt-out of our First Party Strictly Necessary Cookies as they are deployed in order to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting the cookie banner and remembering your settings, to log into your account, to redirect you when you log out, etc.). For more information about the First and Third Party Cookies used please follow this link.

Allow All Cookies

Manage Consent Preferences

Strictly Necessary Cookies - Always Active

We do not allow you to opt-out of our certain cookies, as they are necessary to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting our cookie banner and remembering your privacy choices) and/or to monitor site performance. These cookies are not used in a way that constitutes a “sale” of your data under the CCPA. You can set your browser to block or alert you about these cookies, but some parts of the site will not work as intended if you do so. You can usually find these settings in the Options or Preferences menu of your browser. Visit www.allaboutcookies.org to learn more.

Sale of Personal Data, Targeting & Social Media Cookies

Under the California Consumer Privacy Act, you have the right to opt-out of the sale of your personal information to third parties. These cookies collect information for analytics and to personalize your experience with targeted ads. You may exercise your right to opt out of the sale of personal information by using this toggle switch. If you opt out we will not be able to offer you personalised ads and will not hand over your personal information to any third parties. Additionally, you may contact our legal department for further clarification about your rights as a California consumer by using this Exercise My Rights link

If you have enabled privacy controls on your browser (such as a plugin), we have to take that as a valid request to opt-out. Therefore we would not be able to track your activity through the web. This may affect our ability to personalize ads according to your preferences.

Targeting cookies may be set through our site by our advertising partners. They may be used by those companies to build a profile of your interests and show you relevant adverts on other sites. They do not store directly personal information, but are based on uniquely identifying your browser and internet device. If you do not allow these cookies, you will experience less targeted advertising.

Social media cookies are set by a range of social media services that we have added to the site to enable you to share our content with your friends and networks. They are capable of tracking your browser across other sites and building up a profile of your interests. This may impact the content and messages you see on other websites you visit. If you do not allow these cookies you may not be able to use or see these sharing tools.

If you want to opt out of all of our lead reports and lists, please submit a privacy request at our Do Not Sell page.

Save Settings
Cookie Preferences Cookie List

Cookie List

A cookie is a small piece of data (text file) that a website – when visited by a user – asks your browser to store on your device in order to remember information about you, such as your language preference or login information. Those cookies are set by us and called first-party cookies. We also use third-party cookies – which are cookies from a domain different than the domain of the website you are visiting – for our advertising and marketing efforts. More specifically, we use cookies and other tracking technologies for the following purposes:

Strictly Necessary Cookies

We do not allow you to opt-out of our certain cookies, as they are necessary to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting our cookie banner and remembering your privacy choices) and/or to monitor site performance. These cookies are not used in a way that constitutes a “sale” of your data under the CCPA. You can set your browser to block or alert you about these cookies, but some parts of the site will not work as intended if you do so. You can usually find these settings in the Options or Preferences menu of your browser. Visit www.allaboutcookies.org to learn more.

Functional Cookies

We do not allow you to opt-out of our certain cookies, as they are necessary to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting our cookie banner and remembering your privacy choices) and/or to monitor site performance. These cookies are not used in a way that constitutes a “sale” of your data under the CCPA. You can set your browser to block or alert you about these cookies, but some parts of the site will not work as intended if you do so. You can usually find these settings in the Options or Preferences menu of your browser. Visit www.allaboutcookies.org to learn more.

Performance Cookies

We do not allow you to opt-out of our certain cookies, as they are necessary to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting our cookie banner and remembering your privacy choices) and/or to monitor site performance. These cookies are not used in a way that constitutes a “sale” of your data under the CCPA. You can set your browser to block or alert you about these cookies, but some parts of the site will not work as intended if you do so. You can usually find these settings in the Options or Preferences menu of your browser. Visit www.allaboutcookies.org to learn more.

Sale of Personal Data

We also use cookies to personalize your experience on our websites, including by determining the most relevant content and advertisements to show you, and to monitor site traffic and performance, so that we may improve our websites and your experience. You may opt out of our use of such cookies (and the associated “sale” of your Personal Information) by using this toggle switch. You will still see some advertising, regardless of your selection. Because we do not track you across different devices, browsers and GEMG properties, your selection will take effect only on this browser, this device and this website.

Social Media Cookies

We also use cookies to personalize your experience on our websites, including by determining the most relevant content and advertisements to show you, and to monitor site traffic and performance, so that we may improve our websites and your experience. You may opt out of our use of such cookies (and the associated “sale” of your Personal Information) by using this toggle switch. You will still see some advertising, regardless of your selection. Because we do not track you across different devices, browsers and GEMG properties, your selection will take effect only on this browser, this device and this website.

Targeting Cookies

We also use cookies to personalize your experience on our websites, including by determining the most relevant content and advertisements to show you, and to monitor site traffic and performance, so that we may improve our websites and your experience. You may opt out of our use of such cookies (and the associated “sale” of your Personal Information) by using this toggle switch. You will still see some advertising, regardless of your selection. Because we do not track you across different devices, browsers and GEMG properties, your selection will take effect only on this browser, this device and this website.