An Iranian navy boat sprays water to extinguish a fire on an oil tanker in the sea of Oman, Thursday, June 13, 2019.

An Iranian navy boat sprays water to extinguish a fire on an oil tanker in the sea of Oman, Thursday, June 13, 2019. AP Photo/Tasnim News Agency

Deterrence Is Failing — Partly Because Iran Has No Idea What the US Really Wants

Successful deterrence requires clear delineation of acceptable and unacceptable behaviors. That needs to start, pronto.

Iran is accelerating its enrichment of uranium, the IAEA says. Iran attacked four tankers near the Strait of Hormuz, the Trump administration says. If all this is true — Tehran has hinted at the first, though it strenuously denies the second, and there are doubters in world capitals and at home — then U.S. policymakers need to conduct an honest assessment of where and why U.S. policies have failed to deter Iranian actions.

As Washington Post columnist David Ignatius summarizes the mounting tensions, “Trump’s maximum pressure campaign has collided head on with [Iranian Supreme Leader] Khamenei’s maximum resistance.” 

Leaders in Washington and Tehran alike have miscalculated. The Trump administration applied devastating economic pressure on Iran without providing leaders in Tehran with a clear roadmap for how to escape punishment. This put Iran in the penalty box without evident prospect for rehabilitation. As Europe, Russia, and China failed to deliver any meaningful economic relief to Iran, and as the unilateral U.S. withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal, or JCPOA, solidified the position of hardliners in Tehran, it was virtually inevitable that Iran would strike back in order to demonstrate its ability to inflict pain on opponents. 

Related: US Blames Tanker Attacks On Iran; CENTCOM Releases Surveillance Video

Related: Trump’s ‘Maximum Pressure’ Won’t Make Iran Yield

Related: Former Defense Secretary Ash Carter Talks Iran, China, and Trump’s Late-Night Tweets

Yet Iranian leaders have badly miscalculated as well, by threatening to stop complying with at least some provisions of the JCPOA. Inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency have recently verified that Iran is increasing its production of nuclear fuel and Iranian President Rouhani has pledged that the next step will be to increase the level of enrichment above allowable levels. These steps are only likely to increase Iran’s diplomatic isolation and will push even reluctant U.S. allies to back whatever retaliatory action might be taken by the United States. Meanwhile repeated threats by Iranian leaders to close the Strait of Hormuz to international traffic only bolster the public case for Iran’s culpability in the recent attacks on tankers. 

In the immediate term, the central question that should occupy U.S. policymakers in Washington is how to restore deterrence in the wake of these Iranian attacks. As options are considered, U.S. decision-makers would be well advised to review some of the enduring insights from the vast academic literature on the topic. 

At base, deterrence policy is developed to change the decision-making calculus of an opponent. As such it is a game of perception management and clear communication. Successful deterrence requires clear delineation of acceptable and unacceptable behaviors. It requires that the opponent understand that unacceptable behavior will be met with a credible punishment whose costs will outweigh any potential benefit to be gained. Finally, prospects for successful deterrence are improved when threats of punishment are combined with positive incentives to alter the opponent’s unacceptable behavior.

Recent events offer clear evidence that U.S. deterrence has failed to sufficiently alter Tehran’s calculus as it weighs its options in responding to the devastating economic impact of U.S. sanctions. Restoring deterrence will require changes to U.S. policies.

The first, most obvious, and most emotionally satisfying step will be to impose punishment on those responsible for the tanker attacks. U.S. military spokesmen say a video released on Thursday identifies the IRGC as responsible. President Trump’s designation of the IRGC as a terrorist entity in May provides a ready-made mechanism for imposing additional financial and economic penalties on this force. 

However, Iran’s unprovoked attack on international shipping in the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz will require a more robust response if deterrence is to be restored. An effective response is almost certain to include U.S. military strikes of one extent or another. The challenge for U.S. policymakers will be to design military strikes that are sufficiently strong to deter future Iranian attacks without provoking escalatory Iranian retaliation that spins out of control and triggers a broader regional war. Such a balancing act will require detailed intelligence, precise military planning, and sophisticated public and private diplomacy. 

U.S. intelligence will need to identify those particular IRGC units, individuals, and leaders directly responsible for the attacks on the tankers. U.S. military strikes should explicitly target those facilities with the aim of both signaling resolve and diminishing the IRGC’s ability to conduct future attacks. U.S. diplomats should both privately and publicly signal that the U.S. will not tolerate future actions of this sort. American officials will simultaneously need to convince leaders in Tehran that the U.S. is not seeking a broader confrontation with Iran. A forceful, targeted, and proportional U.S. military response could reassure U.S. regional allies of American defense commitments while giving leaders in Tehran every incentive to avoid further escalation.

Quietly through private diplomatic channels such as Swiss intermediaries, U.S. leaders will also need to provide decision-makers in Tehran an off-ramp to avoid further escalation and present a concrete step-by-step plan for getting back to the negotiating table as President Trump and other senior officials have said is their ultimate goal. 

The first step in doing so will be to clarify U.S. redlines for objectionable Iranian behavior. Unfortunately, the unilateral U.S. withdrawal from the meticulously negotiated and internationally sanctioned JCPOA has primarily served to muddy the waters around Iranian nuclear enrichment. U.S. policymakers should clearly explain what specific Iranian actions could hasten the development of a nuclear weapon and so draw U.S. military strikes. 

The next step should be prioritizing and clarifying the 12 demands that U.S. Secretary of State Pompeo laid on Iran in his May 2018 “New Iran Strategy” speech. These demands amount to a requirement that Iran cease enrichment of uranium, provide anytime-anywhere access to Iranian civilian and military facilities, halt development of ballistic missiles, end support to its vast array of Shi’a militia groups deployed in Iraq, Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen, and stop all further unspecified “threatening behavior.” Such a broad and all-encompassing list of requirements cannot possibly help leaders in Tehran  accurately weigh the costs and benefits of compliance. In fact, the expansive nature of these demands virtually guarantees that Iran will remain in violation regardless of any self-imposed restraints on its behavior short of capitulation. It seems highly unlikely that Pompeo or his deputies might walk back these overreaching U.S. demands in public, a private exchange that establishes clear priorities for changes in Iran’s behavior is critical to adjusting calculations in Tehran.

Finally, U.S. policymakers will have to provide a more concrete roadmap for getting back to negotiations. President Trump’s withdrawal from the JCPOA despite Iranian compliance has severely damaged the credibility of any public expressions of a desire for a return to negotiations. In the immediate wake of Iran’s attacks and a likely forthcoming U.S. military response, the immediate challenge will be to avoid uncontrolled escalation toward intensified and expanded conflict. However, identifying small steps that could be taken by Iran that would be quickly rewarded with a comparably small “reward” by the United States holds the potential to create positive momentum toward reduced tensions. If successful, a series of these small confidence-building steps could provide a sufficient foundation and incentives for both sides to return to the negotiating table and avoid a broader conflict that both sides say they want to avoid.

X
This website uses cookies to enhance user experience and to analyze performance and traffic on our website. We also share information about your use of our site with our social media, advertising and analytics partners. Learn More / Do Not Sell My Personal Information
Accept Cookies
X
Cookie Preferences Cookie List

Do Not Sell My Personal Information

When you visit our website, we store cookies on your browser to collect information. The information collected might relate to you, your preferences or your device, and is mostly used to make the site work as you expect it to and to provide a more personalized web experience. However, you can choose not to allow certain types of cookies, which may impact your experience of the site and the services we are able to offer. Click on the different category headings to find out more and change our default settings according to your preference. You cannot opt-out of our First Party Strictly Necessary Cookies as they are deployed in order to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting the cookie banner and remembering your settings, to log into your account, to redirect you when you log out, etc.). For more information about the First and Third Party Cookies used please follow this link.

Allow All Cookies

Manage Consent Preferences

Strictly Necessary Cookies - Always Active

We do not allow you to opt-out of our certain cookies, as they are necessary to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting our cookie banner and remembering your privacy choices) and/or to monitor site performance. These cookies are not used in a way that constitutes a “sale” of your data under the CCPA. You can set your browser to block or alert you about these cookies, but some parts of the site will not work as intended if you do so. You can usually find these settings in the Options or Preferences menu of your browser. Visit www.allaboutcookies.org to learn more.

Sale of Personal Data, Targeting & Social Media Cookies

Under the California Consumer Privacy Act, you have the right to opt-out of the sale of your personal information to third parties. These cookies collect information for analytics and to personalize your experience with targeted ads. You may exercise your right to opt out of the sale of personal information by using this toggle switch. If you opt out we will not be able to offer you personalised ads and will not hand over your personal information to any third parties. Additionally, you may contact our legal department for further clarification about your rights as a California consumer by using this Exercise My Rights link

If you have enabled privacy controls on your browser (such as a plugin), we have to take that as a valid request to opt-out. Therefore we would not be able to track your activity through the web. This may affect our ability to personalize ads according to your preferences.

Targeting cookies may be set through our site by our advertising partners. They may be used by those companies to build a profile of your interests and show you relevant adverts on other sites. They do not store directly personal information, but are based on uniquely identifying your browser and internet device. If you do not allow these cookies, you will experience less targeted advertising.

Social media cookies are set by a range of social media services that we have added to the site to enable you to share our content with your friends and networks. They are capable of tracking your browser across other sites and building up a profile of your interests. This may impact the content and messages you see on other websites you visit. If you do not allow these cookies you may not be able to use or see these sharing tools.

If you want to opt out of all of our lead reports and lists, please submit a privacy request at our Do Not Sell page.

Save Settings
Cookie Preferences Cookie List

Cookie List

A cookie is a small piece of data (text file) that a website – when visited by a user – asks your browser to store on your device in order to remember information about you, such as your language preference or login information. Those cookies are set by us and called first-party cookies. We also use third-party cookies – which are cookies from a domain different than the domain of the website you are visiting – for our advertising and marketing efforts. More specifically, we use cookies and other tracking technologies for the following purposes:

Strictly Necessary Cookies

We do not allow you to opt-out of our certain cookies, as they are necessary to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting our cookie banner and remembering your privacy choices) and/or to monitor site performance. These cookies are not used in a way that constitutes a “sale” of your data under the CCPA. You can set your browser to block or alert you about these cookies, but some parts of the site will not work as intended if you do so. You can usually find these settings in the Options or Preferences menu of your browser. Visit www.allaboutcookies.org to learn more.

Functional Cookies

We do not allow you to opt-out of our certain cookies, as they are necessary to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting our cookie banner and remembering your privacy choices) and/or to monitor site performance. These cookies are not used in a way that constitutes a “sale” of your data under the CCPA. You can set your browser to block or alert you about these cookies, but some parts of the site will not work as intended if you do so. You can usually find these settings in the Options or Preferences menu of your browser. Visit www.allaboutcookies.org to learn more.

Performance Cookies

We do not allow you to opt-out of our certain cookies, as they are necessary to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting our cookie banner and remembering your privacy choices) and/or to monitor site performance. These cookies are not used in a way that constitutes a “sale” of your data under the CCPA. You can set your browser to block or alert you about these cookies, but some parts of the site will not work as intended if you do so. You can usually find these settings in the Options or Preferences menu of your browser. Visit www.allaboutcookies.org to learn more.

Sale of Personal Data

We also use cookies to personalize your experience on our websites, including by determining the most relevant content and advertisements to show you, and to monitor site traffic and performance, so that we may improve our websites and your experience. You may opt out of our use of such cookies (and the associated “sale” of your Personal Information) by using this toggle switch. You will still see some advertising, regardless of your selection. Because we do not track you across different devices, browsers and GEMG properties, your selection will take effect only on this browser, this device and this website.

Social Media Cookies

We also use cookies to personalize your experience on our websites, including by determining the most relevant content and advertisements to show you, and to monitor site traffic and performance, so that we may improve our websites and your experience. You may opt out of our use of such cookies (and the associated “sale” of your Personal Information) by using this toggle switch. You will still see some advertising, regardless of your selection. Because we do not track you across different devices, browsers and GEMG properties, your selection will take effect only on this browser, this device and this website.

Targeting Cookies

We also use cookies to personalize your experience on our websites, including by determining the most relevant content and advertisements to show you, and to monitor site traffic and performance, so that we may improve our websites and your experience. You may opt out of our use of such cookies (and the associated “sale” of your Personal Information) by using this toggle switch. You will still see some advertising, regardless of your selection. Because we do not track you across different devices, browsers and GEMG properties, your selection will take effect only on this browser, this device and this website.