John Travolta at Cannes in 2018

John Travolta at Cannes in 2018 Denis Makarenko / Shutterstock

The Air Force's Kessel Run Is the John Travolta of Defense Acquisitions

Right now, the much-hyped software-development office is doing fine work. Let’s remember that when the inevitable backlash arrives.

We need to talk about the Air Force’s Kessel Run program. 

But first, we need to talk about John Travolta. 

Few Hollywood actors have had more ups and downs than Mr. Travolta. He was the hottest ticket in the world when he strutted across the screen in 1977’s Saturday Night Fever, quickly followed by Grease. Not long after that, his status took a bit of a faceplant. As a kid in the early 80’s, my friends and I thought he was the dorkiest disco dork ever to dork, and that was before dorks were cool. He went on to make enormous hits (e.g. Pulp Fiction) and enormous flops (e.g. Battlefield Earth), causing me to revisit my opinion several times.

I recall an interview Travolta gave during one of the many times in his career when the critics were being particularly harsh. He said something along the lines of “I wasn’t that great before, and I’m not that bad now.” This phrase really stuck with me. Not just because it accurately summed up his actual talent, but because it helped me recognize he was just a guy doing a job as best he could. Sometimes his performance exceeded expectations, other times it did not. He clearly wasn’t buying in to the hype.

Related: The Pentagon Still Buys Software Like It's 1987

Related: Inside the Government's Quest to Safely Use Open-Source Code

Related: US Drones May Soon Run on Open-Source Software

People get excited when the hype is high, then get disappointed when the thing fails to live up to expectations. The higher the hype, the deeper the disappointment. 

The clever folks at Gartner call this The Hype Cycle, in which the Peak of Inflated Expectations is followed inevitably by the Trough of Disillusionment. They even graphed it out for us:
 

Gartner's Hype Cycle

Neither the peak nor the trough is an accurate assessment of quality, value, or talent. The peak is an overstatement, the trough is an over-correction. 

Which brings us to Kessel Run, often described as a “software factory that fights wars.” The team has done an impressive job of delivering operational software that runs on classified networks to support military planning and operations. They are doing good work and telling a good story and are widely seen as the gold standard of military tech done right. They are also the most hyped military program office in operation today. See, for example, this FCW article: Why Kessel Run is such a big deal.

Kessel Run’s branding and social media presence is on point (#AgileAF anyone?) and their senior-level support is the envy of all program offices. This photo of a Kessel Run patch on the chief of staff of the Air Force’s notebook really says it all. If Kessel Run was a movie star, it might be Travolta in 1978.

The hype is not unfounded. In October 2018, Secretary of the Air Force Heather Wilson submitted a report to Congress that said Kessel Run “is proving successful… We believe we have demonstrated the ability to continuously deliver software that adds value to the warfighter.” 

Successfully demonstrating continuous delivery is basically the holy grail of software development, and Kessel Run did it. The FCW article is correct — this is a really big deal. This success also sets high expectations for future performance, so Kessel Run is almost certainly perched on the Peak of Inflated Expectations right now. 

And sure enough, critics and skeptics are quietly beginning to poke at Kessel Run. Not too loudly just yet, and not in print, but the rumblings are not hard to find if you listen closely. So yes, the trough of disillusionment is coming. But it’s nothing anyone should take too seriously. The view from the trough is just as distorted as the view from the peak – maybe even more so. 

Take a closer look at Gartner’s diagram and you’ll see something beyond the trough: the slope of enlightenment. That’s where reality and expectations begin to align. That’s where talent persists, the growth mindset pays off, and the effort delivers enduring value. Press on through the trough, and you just might make long-term progress in the Plateau of Productivity. 

I am confident Kessel Run will spend some time in the trough, probably soon. Not because they will start doing bad work. Not because the quality or timeliness of their software delivery will decrease. Not because they’ll produce the military equivalent of Look Who’s Talking, Too. No, they’ll spend time in the trough simply because inflated expectations lead to disappointment. 

This is a natural part of the cycle. When the trough happens, I hope nobody will take it too seriously. I hope the Kessel Run team will continue experimenting and learning, developing their people, and successfully shipping software to support military operations. I hope other program offices will continue to learn from Kessel Run’s experience — both their successes and their failures. 

Most importantly, when the trough happens, I hope nobody concludes that Kessel Run’s strategy was inherently flawed and should never be repeated. I hope nobody writes them off the way my friends and I dismissed Travolta in the early 80s. In other words, I hope we’ll all remember the Travolta Truth: I wasn’t that great, I’m not that bad.

X
This website uses cookies to enhance user experience and to analyze performance and traffic on our website. We also share information about your use of our site with our social media, advertising and analytics partners. Learn More / Do Not Sell My Personal Information
Accept Cookies
X
Cookie Preferences Cookie List

Do Not Sell My Personal Information

When you visit our website, we store cookies on your browser to collect information. The information collected might relate to you, your preferences or your device, and is mostly used to make the site work as you expect it to and to provide a more personalized web experience. However, you can choose not to allow certain types of cookies, which may impact your experience of the site and the services we are able to offer. Click on the different category headings to find out more and change our default settings according to your preference. You cannot opt-out of our First Party Strictly Necessary Cookies as they are deployed in order to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting the cookie banner and remembering your settings, to log into your account, to redirect you when you log out, etc.). For more information about the First and Third Party Cookies used please follow this link.

Allow All Cookies

Manage Consent Preferences

Strictly Necessary Cookies - Always Active

We do not allow you to opt-out of our certain cookies, as they are necessary to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting our cookie banner and remembering your privacy choices) and/or to monitor site performance. These cookies are not used in a way that constitutes a “sale” of your data under the CCPA. You can set your browser to block or alert you about these cookies, but some parts of the site will not work as intended if you do so. You can usually find these settings in the Options or Preferences menu of your browser. Visit www.allaboutcookies.org to learn more.

Sale of Personal Data, Targeting & Social Media Cookies

Under the California Consumer Privacy Act, you have the right to opt-out of the sale of your personal information to third parties. These cookies collect information for analytics and to personalize your experience with targeted ads. You may exercise your right to opt out of the sale of personal information by using this toggle switch. If you opt out we will not be able to offer you personalised ads and will not hand over your personal information to any third parties. Additionally, you may contact our legal department for further clarification about your rights as a California consumer by using this Exercise My Rights link

If you have enabled privacy controls on your browser (such as a plugin), we have to take that as a valid request to opt-out. Therefore we would not be able to track your activity through the web. This may affect our ability to personalize ads according to your preferences.

Targeting cookies may be set through our site by our advertising partners. They may be used by those companies to build a profile of your interests and show you relevant adverts on other sites. They do not store directly personal information, but are based on uniquely identifying your browser and internet device. If you do not allow these cookies, you will experience less targeted advertising.

Social media cookies are set by a range of social media services that we have added to the site to enable you to share our content with your friends and networks. They are capable of tracking your browser across other sites and building up a profile of your interests. This may impact the content and messages you see on other websites you visit. If you do not allow these cookies you may not be able to use or see these sharing tools.

If you want to opt out of all of our lead reports and lists, please submit a privacy request at our Do Not Sell page.

Save Settings
Cookie Preferences Cookie List

Cookie List

A cookie is a small piece of data (text file) that a website – when visited by a user – asks your browser to store on your device in order to remember information about you, such as your language preference or login information. Those cookies are set by us and called first-party cookies. We also use third-party cookies – which are cookies from a domain different than the domain of the website you are visiting – for our advertising and marketing efforts. More specifically, we use cookies and other tracking technologies for the following purposes:

Strictly Necessary Cookies

We do not allow you to opt-out of our certain cookies, as they are necessary to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting our cookie banner and remembering your privacy choices) and/or to monitor site performance. These cookies are not used in a way that constitutes a “sale” of your data under the CCPA. You can set your browser to block or alert you about these cookies, but some parts of the site will not work as intended if you do so. You can usually find these settings in the Options or Preferences menu of your browser. Visit www.allaboutcookies.org to learn more.

Functional Cookies

We do not allow you to opt-out of our certain cookies, as they are necessary to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting our cookie banner and remembering your privacy choices) and/or to monitor site performance. These cookies are not used in a way that constitutes a “sale” of your data under the CCPA. You can set your browser to block or alert you about these cookies, but some parts of the site will not work as intended if you do so. You can usually find these settings in the Options or Preferences menu of your browser. Visit www.allaboutcookies.org to learn more.

Performance Cookies

We do not allow you to opt-out of our certain cookies, as they are necessary to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting our cookie banner and remembering your privacy choices) and/or to monitor site performance. These cookies are not used in a way that constitutes a “sale” of your data under the CCPA. You can set your browser to block or alert you about these cookies, but some parts of the site will not work as intended if you do so. You can usually find these settings in the Options or Preferences menu of your browser. Visit www.allaboutcookies.org to learn more.

Sale of Personal Data

We also use cookies to personalize your experience on our websites, including by determining the most relevant content and advertisements to show you, and to monitor site traffic and performance, so that we may improve our websites and your experience. You may opt out of our use of such cookies (and the associated “sale” of your Personal Information) by using this toggle switch. You will still see some advertising, regardless of your selection. Because we do not track you across different devices, browsers and GEMG properties, your selection will take effect only on this browser, this device and this website.

Social Media Cookies

We also use cookies to personalize your experience on our websites, including by determining the most relevant content and advertisements to show you, and to monitor site traffic and performance, so that we may improve our websites and your experience. You may opt out of our use of such cookies (and the associated “sale” of your Personal Information) by using this toggle switch. You will still see some advertising, regardless of your selection. Because we do not track you across different devices, browsers and GEMG properties, your selection will take effect only on this browser, this device and this website.

Targeting Cookies

We also use cookies to personalize your experience on our websites, including by determining the most relevant content and advertisements to show you, and to monitor site traffic and performance, so that we may improve our websites and your experience. You may opt out of our use of such cookies (and the associated “sale” of your Personal Information) by using this toggle switch. You will still see some advertising, regardless of your selection. Because we do not track you across different devices, browsers and GEMG properties, your selection will take effect only on this browser, this device and this website.