Democratic presidential candidate, former Vice President Joe Biden speaks at Alexis Dupont High School in Wilmington, Del., Tuesday, June 30, 2020.

Democratic presidential candidate, former Vice President Joe Biden speaks at Alexis Dupont High School in Wilmington, Del., Tuesday, June 30, 2020. AP Photo/Patrick Semansky

SPECIAL REPORT: What if Biden Wins?

Part 1: Here’s what the world should expect from Joe Biden.

“The world does not organize itself.” That’s the standout line in Joe Biden’s keynote article in January’s Foreign Affairs, in which the presumptive Democratic nominee laid out his vision for America’s role in global security. It’s also the one to which Americans should be prepared to hold him accountable if the former vice president beats Donald Trump in November. 

In speeches and statements and interviews, the candidate and his advisors have been sketching out a foreign policy that would put the United States, as Biden has said, “back at the head of the table.” And over the past month, Defense One asked dozens of his aides, advisors, surrogates, and former Obama administration colleagues what the world might expect from his presidency. What they said is that Biden may not radically change the nation’s military, deviate from the era’s so-called great power competition, or even slash the bottom line of the Pentagon’s $700 billion budget. But how that money is spent, how the United States competes, and how the military is deployed to advance American interests certainly would. 

But if Biden wins, will the world follow him? Will Americans?

Part 1: What if Joe Biden Wins?
Part 2: Biden’s China Policy Starts With Building a Stronger America
Part 3: How Biden Would Wage Great Power Competition

Part 4: ’How Much and How Fast’: Biden Watchers Anticipate Defense Spending Crunch

“During my first year in office, the United States will organize and host a global Summit for Democracy,” Biden wrote in January. (He first said it in July.) He would like governments to emerge with renewed commitments on human rights, corruption, and authoritarian regimes. 

This, of course, would mark a U-turn from Trump, who has preferred bilateral exchanges of sweet-talk with dictators (China’s Xi Jinping, Russia’s Vladimir Putin, North Korea’s Kim Jong-un, and Saudi Arabia’s Mohammed bin Salman) and other corrupt leaders (Turkey’s Recep Erdogan, Brazil’s Jair Bolsonaro). Although Trump has participated in global conferences, often leaving disheartened allies in his wake, he has never convened world leaders or U.S. allies to a summit — say, to organize against American’s strategic competitors, nor for peace talks in Syria or Afghanistan, or even for the global economic rebalancing he seeks.

That’s notable, because for years — at least two or three decades — some national security scholars and leaders have called for a summit-level effort to remake the liberal international order into something more reflective and useful to the real world today, something as bold as those that created the current order that governed states since World War II. Under Trump’s “America First,” there will never be a new Bretton Woods, or Yalta, or Vienna, or Camp David, or Oslo, or Dayton. 

Biden is promising such an event next year. (Or, he was, before the coronavirus pandemic cancelled conferences around the world.) He says it will focus on democracy, and will focus on deliverables, not photo-ops of world leaders shaking hands. He’s also reaching past the elites and bureaucrats, promising to make NGOs and tech companies central to the summit. He’ll press them on their responsibilities as carriers of free speech and disinformation, he says. 

What Biden and his supporters describe is a plan to reconnect the world through American foreign policy to average Americans and citizens. He’s calling it “a foreign policy for the middle class” — which sounds like a counter-populist answer to the criticism and backlash against globalization that helped bring about the Trump presidency and Brexit. It's the establishment “blob” trying to find a way to save globalization without saying "globalization," but recast and rethought. 

If Americans buy it, it could work. But if it comes across as anti-business and pro-”workers of the world, unite,” well, one can already hear the cries of “Socialism!” and “World government!” coming from Trump’s campaign, not to mention the Wall Street Journal’s editorial page. 

Two weeks ago, Jake Sullivan, Biden’s former national security adviser and director of policy planning at the State Department, said foreign policy-makers have become too “comfortable” with old thinking. No longer should the U.S. equate the desire of multinational corporations to access new markets as a national security interest. “Instead, we should be asking what is going to grow and sustain a strong middle class. What policies will do that?” Sullivan said, in a preview of what’s to come. 

Part of achieving that wider connection is a call by Biden supporters (and historic opponents, such as former Defense Secretary Bob Gates, this month) to further demilitarize foreign policy and invest in non-military tools of diplomacy, development, and institutions. The idea is that it’s long overdue for the U.S. government to get back into the Cold War mindset of aggressively spreading all that is good about America to the world — because China is beating America in the battle for global influence. It’s not much different from what Obama wanted to do in 2008, after seven years of unexpectedly prolonged wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.

“As president, I will elevate diplomacy as the United States’ principal tool of foreign policy. I will reinvest in the diplomatic corps, which this administration has hollowed out, and put U.S. diplomacy back in the hands of genuine professionals,” Biden wrote in January. 

But he has not outlined specifics for that plan, nor how he’ll execute it. It may not cost much, compared to the Pentagon’s war chest, but it would require White House leadership and political buy-in from Congress. It would require enormous federal and private spending to pay for a wish list that also includes massive domestic infrastructure projects in roads, rails, and energy; student loan forgiveness; higher wages; and on and on. Added up, all of Biden’s reimaginings sound like a 21st-century version of the New Deal, which could send the GOP Senate and conservative American into convulsions. Abroad, it may not be America First, but is definitely American-led.  

If Biden wins, will anybody follow? 

NEXT STORY: I Am Vanessa Guillen

X
This website uses cookies to enhance user experience and to analyze performance and traffic on our website. We also share information about your use of our site with our social media, advertising and analytics partners. Learn More / Do Not Sell My Personal Information
Accept Cookies
X
Cookie Preferences Cookie List

Do Not Sell My Personal Information

When you visit our website, we store cookies on your browser to collect information. The information collected might relate to you, your preferences or your device, and is mostly used to make the site work as you expect it to and to provide a more personalized web experience. However, you can choose not to allow certain types of cookies, which may impact your experience of the site and the services we are able to offer. Click on the different category headings to find out more and change our default settings according to your preference. You cannot opt-out of our First Party Strictly Necessary Cookies as they are deployed in order to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting the cookie banner and remembering your settings, to log into your account, to redirect you when you log out, etc.). For more information about the First and Third Party Cookies used please follow this link.

Allow All Cookies

Manage Consent Preferences

Strictly Necessary Cookies - Always Active

We do not allow you to opt-out of our certain cookies, as they are necessary to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting our cookie banner and remembering your privacy choices) and/or to monitor site performance. These cookies are not used in a way that constitutes a “sale” of your data under the CCPA. You can set your browser to block or alert you about these cookies, but some parts of the site will not work as intended if you do so. You can usually find these settings in the Options or Preferences menu of your browser. Visit www.allaboutcookies.org to learn more.

Sale of Personal Data, Targeting & Social Media Cookies

Under the California Consumer Privacy Act, you have the right to opt-out of the sale of your personal information to third parties. These cookies collect information for analytics and to personalize your experience with targeted ads. You may exercise your right to opt out of the sale of personal information by using this toggle switch. If you opt out we will not be able to offer you personalised ads and will not hand over your personal information to any third parties. Additionally, you may contact our legal department for further clarification about your rights as a California consumer by using this Exercise My Rights link

If you have enabled privacy controls on your browser (such as a plugin), we have to take that as a valid request to opt-out. Therefore we would not be able to track your activity through the web. This may affect our ability to personalize ads according to your preferences.

Targeting cookies may be set through our site by our advertising partners. They may be used by those companies to build a profile of your interests and show you relevant adverts on other sites. They do not store directly personal information, but are based on uniquely identifying your browser and internet device. If you do not allow these cookies, you will experience less targeted advertising.

Social media cookies are set by a range of social media services that we have added to the site to enable you to share our content with your friends and networks. They are capable of tracking your browser across other sites and building up a profile of your interests. This may impact the content and messages you see on other websites you visit. If you do not allow these cookies you may not be able to use or see these sharing tools.

If you want to opt out of all of our lead reports and lists, please submit a privacy request at our Do Not Sell page.

Save Settings
Cookie Preferences Cookie List

Cookie List

A cookie is a small piece of data (text file) that a website – when visited by a user – asks your browser to store on your device in order to remember information about you, such as your language preference or login information. Those cookies are set by us and called first-party cookies. We also use third-party cookies – which are cookies from a domain different than the domain of the website you are visiting – for our advertising and marketing efforts. More specifically, we use cookies and other tracking technologies for the following purposes:

Strictly Necessary Cookies

We do not allow you to opt-out of our certain cookies, as they are necessary to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting our cookie banner and remembering your privacy choices) and/or to monitor site performance. These cookies are not used in a way that constitutes a “sale” of your data under the CCPA. You can set your browser to block or alert you about these cookies, but some parts of the site will not work as intended if you do so. You can usually find these settings in the Options or Preferences menu of your browser. Visit www.allaboutcookies.org to learn more.

Functional Cookies

We do not allow you to opt-out of our certain cookies, as they are necessary to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting our cookie banner and remembering your privacy choices) and/or to monitor site performance. These cookies are not used in a way that constitutes a “sale” of your data under the CCPA. You can set your browser to block or alert you about these cookies, but some parts of the site will not work as intended if you do so. You can usually find these settings in the Options or Preferences menu of your browser. Visit www.allaboutcookies.org to learn more.

Performance Cookies

We do not allow you to opt-out of our certain cookies, as they are necessary to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting our cookie banner and remembering your privacy choices) and/or to monitor site performance. These cookies are not used in a way that constitutes a “sale” of your data under the CCPA. You can set your browser to block or alert you about these cookies, but some parts of the site will not work as intended if you do so. You can usually find these settings in the Options or Preferences menu of your browser. Visit www.allaboutcookies.org to learn more.

Sale of Personal Data

We also use cookies to personalize your experience on our websites, including by determining the most relevant content and advertisements to show you, and to monitor site traffic and performance, so that we may improve our websites and your experience. You may opt out of our use of such cookies (and the associated “sale” of your Personal Information) by using this toggle switch. You will still see some advertising, regardless of your selection. Because we do not track you across different devices, browsers and GEMG properties, your selection will take effect only on this browser, this device and this website.

Social Media Cookies

We also use cookies to personalize your experience on our websites, including by determining the most relevant content and advertisements to show you, and to monitor site traffic and performance, so that we may improve our websites and your experience. You may opt out of our use of such cookies (and the associated “sale” of your Personal Information) by using this toggle switch. You will still see some advertising, regardless of your selection. Because we do not track you across different devices, browsers and GEMG properties, your selection will take effect only on this browser, this device and this website.

Targeting Cookies

We also use cookies to personalize your experience on our websites, including by determining the most relevant content and advertisements to show you, and to monitor site traffic and performance, so that we may improve our websites and your experience. You may opt out of our use of such cookies (and the associated “sale” of your Personal Information) by using this toggle switch. You will still see some advertising, regardless of your selection. Because we do not track you across different devices, browsers and GEMG properties, your selection will take effect only on this browser, this device and this website.