Port of Rotterdam, The Netherlands

Port of Rotterdam, The Netherlands Sonse

A 21st-Century Reality Is Dawning on NATO

In today’s security environment, non-kinetic threats pose as grave a danger as kinetic ones.

Last week, Jens Stoltenberg delivered a remarkable speech in Bratislava. It could have been one of the speeches one so often hears from officials at security conferences, one about how the West should buy more tankers and fighter jets so as to better deter Russia. Instead, NATO’s Secretary-General spoke about ports, electricity grids, and telecommunications. 

“Our militaries cannot be strong if our societies are weak, so our first line of defence must be strong societies,” he told the Globsec audience. 

Yes! NATO has realized that national security threats come in many guises. The realization is to be saluted. It will make the lives of the hundreds of millions of people who live on NATO territory more secure – and it will make the alliance more relevant.

Stoltenberg is, forgive the pun, a warhorse. Perhaps one has to be if one’s job is to hold together a military alliance as diverse as NATO. Stoltenberg meets lots of leaders of member states, NATO partner countries, and countries wishing they were members. He travels around the world to soothe certain leaders’ egos. He meets with leaders of the West’s rivals. And he speaks at countless conferences. The subject is often Russian aggression, potential WMD use by Iran and North Korea, or arms control. But in Bratislava, Stoltenberg told the audience that “our first line of defense must be strong societies able to prevent, endure, adapt and bounce back from whatever happens.” 

That’s because national security threats have changed. Until very recently, most Western countries thought their most significant national security challenge was a Russian invasion. Now they’re realizing, not least courtesy of COVID-19, that their countries can be brought to their knees by intruders who wear no uniforms and in fact don’t even need to cross borders to do harm. To date, the pandemic has claimed the lives of more than 200,000 Americans, nearly four times as many as lost their lives in the Vietnam War. It has killed tens of thousands in European countries that have lived in peace since World War II. Three years ago, a computer virus subsequently attributed to Russian government hackers  brought down Ukrainian government agencies, electric utilities, banks, and much else – but then it travelled on and laid low a string of multinationals including the pharmaceutical giant Merck, snack conglomerate Mondelez (think Oreo cookies and Nabisco ships), and A.P. Moller Maersk, the world’s largest container-shipping company. 

Maersk is also Denmark’s largest company. When an attack renders a country’s top company unable to operate, it’s a national security issue. And when that company is a logistics giant on whose services businesses and governments – and ultimately consumers – around the world depend, it’s a real crisis. Indeed, when daily life is disrupted, whether by hostile states and their proxies or by Mother Nature, it has a direct effect on NATO and its ability to defend member states’ territory. As Stoltenberg pointed out at Globsec, some 90 percent of NATO members’ military transport relies on civilian ships, railways, and aircraft. If an adversary sabotaged those services, NATO’s military power would be rendered unusable. Like COVID, climate change could bring devastation to countries far more damaging than that caused by armed conflicts. It was a sign of the changing times at NATO that last month the Italian and UK delegations hosted an event on “NATO and Nature: A Changing Climate.” And if disinformation convinced citizens of a NATO member states that, say, the outcome of their election was invalid, their country would be perilously weakened without a single enemy soldier even approaching it. 

The reality is this: in today’s security environment, non-kinetic threats pose as grave a danger as kinetic ones. If NATO is going to be successful, its military capabilities have to be backed up by societal resilience in the member states. Without societal resilience, military excellence is useless. Stoltenberg’s steering the alliance towards resilience makes perfect sense. 

NATO already knew that societal resilience is vital. Resilience is included in the North Atlantic Treaty’s Article 3, and at their summit in 2016 NATO leaders agreed on seven baseline requirements that include assured continuity of government, resilient energy supplies, resilient food and water, and resilient civil transportation systems. But, said Ewan Lawson, an associate fellow at RUSI who was previously an RAF officer, “NATO’s resilience benchmarks seem to have been primarily driven by a concern for the ability of NATO to operate in central Europe in the event of major conflict. The availability of critical infrastructure such as communications, food, water and functioning governance are essential if NATO was to deploy troops and equipment quickly to places of crisis or tension.” Since 2016, however, not very much has happened, and for the past almost-four years President Donald Trump’s outbursts of hostility towards NATO and certain member states have taken center stage.

But with so-called gray-zone aggression – hostile acts that exploit the gap between war and peace – now a reality in most member states, it’s in everyone’s interest to act. “Boosting resilience is a key task for the future. We need robust infrastructure and systems. Power grids, ports, airports, roads, and railways. Our deterrence and defence depend on it,” Stoltenberg said. 

Successful resilience, of course, involves not just infrastructure but people too. “Both the states and NATO need to consider how they ensure that societies are also more resilient in the face of potential shocks,” Lawson told me. Some are already acting. NATO partners Sweden, and Finland both have versions of so-called total defense as do NATO member states Norway, Denmark, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania. All feature considerable societal involvement in national security. Think volunteering opportunities for ordinary citizens to care for animals in contingency situations or assist the armed forces’ radio communications. Latvia’s total defense also includes a pioneering national security curriculum for all teenagers. If the internet went down, Latvian teenagers would be able to find their way without Google Maps, which certainly sets them apart from most teenagers AD 2020. Sweden is in the final state of its Total Defense Exercise 2020, its first total defense exercise since 1987; it involves more than 400 government entities, businesses, and volunteer organizations. 

Madeleine Moon, a British parliamentarian who highlighted resilience during her term as president of the NATO Parliamentary Assembly, told me that “while I was delighted to see Secretary General Stoltenberg highlighting the vital nature of national resilience, I would have liked to have seen recognition of the excellent examples of resilience building in many of the Baltic and Nordic nations right down to classroom teaching, community stockpiling and planning, and youth engagement.”

Classroom teaching, youth engagement: some NATO member states have long had a rather lukewarm attitude towards societal resilience. Why focus on youth engagement when one has mighty military machine? But as COVID, cyber attacks, and Russian election interference demonstrate, the military can’t protect their countries from every calamity. 

“A pivot toward resilience is the right direction for the alliance to take,” Gerhard Wheeler, a retired British Army brigadier general most recently led the UK Reserve Forces program. “Ideally, I would like to see NATO act as a strategic sentry, able to detect the gray-zone threats that hide in the folds and gaps between national warning systems.”

Public opinion plays a role too. In most NATO member states, a majority supports the alliance, but the support isn’t particularly high and in many cases it’s falling. For Generation Greta Thunberg, NATO is a relic, an organization preparing for battles that are extremely unlikely to happen. To be sure, NATO and its member states should focus on resilience because it’s an urgent issue – but a side benefit would be that young people in particular begin seeing the alliance as relevant to their lives. Indeed, this spring the alliance improved its image by coordinating PPE-laden flights between allies (with Turkey as a star performer). The concept of a Russian kinetic attack may seem alien to most ordinary citizens – but the concept of a power outage, an internet cut, or a pandemic certainly does not.

No, resilience isn’t NATO’s core responsibility – territorial defense is – but if it can steer its member states into action half the battle is won. March on, NATO.

X
This website uses cookies to enhance user experience and to analyze performance and traffic on our website. We also share information about your use of our site with our social media, advertising and analytics partners. Learn More / Do Not Sell My Personal Information
Accept Cookies
X
Cookie Preferences Cookie List

Do Not Sell My Personal Information

When you visit our website, we store cookies on your browser to collect information. The information collected might relate to you, your preferences or your device, and is mostly used to make the site work as you expect it to and to provide a more personalized web experience. However, you can choose not to allow certain types of cookies, which may impact your experience of the site and the services we are able to offer. Click on the different category headings to find out more and change our default settings according to your preference. You cannot opt-out of our First Party Strictly Necessary Cookies as they are deployed in order to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting the cookie banner and remembering your settings, to log into your account, to redirect you when you log out, etc.). For more information about the First and Third Party Cookies used please follow this link.

Allow All Cookies

Manage Consent Preferences

Strictly Necessary Cookies - Always Active

We do not allow you to opt-out of our certain cookies, as they are necessary to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting our cookie banner and remembering your privacy choices) and/or to monitor site performance. These cookies are not used in a way that constitutes a “sale” of your data under the CCPA. You can set your browser to block or alert you about these cookies, but some parts of the site will not work as intended if you do so. You can usually find these settings in the Options or Preferences menu of your browser. Visit www.allaboutcookies.org to learn more.

Sale of Personal Data, Targeting & Social Media Cookies

Under the California Consumer Privacy Act, you have the right to opt-out of the sale of your personal information to third parties. These cookies collect information for analytics and to personalize your experience with targeted ads. You may exercise your right to opt out of the sale of personal information by using this toggle switch. If you opt out we will not be able to offer you personalised ads and will not hand over your personal information to any third parties. Additionally, you may contact our legal department for further clarification about your rights as a California consumer by using this Exercise My Rights link

If you have enabled privacy controls on your browser (such as a plugin), we have to take that as a valid request to opt-out. Therefore we would not be able to track your activity through the web. This may affect our ability to personalize ads according to your preferences.

Targeting cookies may be set through our site by our advertising partners. They may be used by those companies to build a profile of your interests and show you relevant adverts on other sites. They do not store directly personal information, but are based on uniquely identifying your browser and internet device. If you do not allow these cookies, you will experience less targeted advertising.

Social media cookies are set by a range of social media services that we have added to the site to enable you to share our content with your friends and networks. They are capable of tracking your browser across other sites and building up a profile of your interests. This may impact the content and messages you see on other websites you visit. If you do not allow these cookies you may not be able to use or see these sharing tools.

If you want to opt out of all of our lead reports and lists, please submit a privacy request at our Do Not Sell page.

Save Settings
Cookie Preferences Cookie List

Cookie List

A cookie is a small piece of data (text file) that a website – when visited by a user – asks your browser to store on your device in order to remember information about you, such as your language preference or login information. Those cookies are set by us and called first-party cookies. We also use third-party cookies – which are cookies from a domain different than the domain of the website you are visiting – for our advertising and marketing efforts. More specifically, we use cookies and other tracking technologies for the following purposes:

Strictly Necessary Cookies

We do not allow you to opt-out of our certain cookies, as they are necessary to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting our cookie banner and remembering your privacy choices) and/or to monitor site performance. These cookies are not used in a way that constitutes a “sale” of your data under the CCPA. You can set your browser to block or alert you about these cookies, but some parts of the site will not work as intended if you do so. You can usually find these settings in the Options or Preferences menu of your browser. Visit www.allaboutcookies.org to learn more.

Functional Cookies

We do not allow you to opt-out of our certain cookies, as they are necessary to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting our cookie banner and remembering your privacy choices) and/or to monitor site performance. These cookies are not used in a way that constitutes a “sale” of your data under the CCPA. You can set your browser to block or alert you about these cookies, but some parts of the site will not work as intended if you do so. You can usually find these settings in the Options or Preferences menu of your browser. Visit www.allaboutcookies.org to learn more.

Performance Cookies

We do not allow you to opt-out of our certain cookies, as they are necessary to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting our cookie banner and remembering your privacy choices) and/or to monitor site performance. These cookies are not used in a way that constitutes a “sale” of your data under the CCPA. You can set your browser to block or alert you about these cookies, but some parts of the site will not work as intended if you do so. You can usually find these settings in the Options or Preferences menu of your browser. Visit www.allaboutcookies.org to learn more.

Sale of Personal Data

We also use cookies to personalize your experience on our websites, including by determining the most relevant content and advertisements to show you, and to monitor site traffic and performance, so that we may improve our websites and your experience. You may opt out of our use of such cookies (and the associated “sale” of your Personal Information) by using this toggle switch. You will still see some advertising, regardless of your selection. Because we do not track you across different devices, browsers and GEMG properties, your selection will take effect only on this browser, this device and this website.

Social Media Cookies

We also use cookies to personalize your experience on our websites, including by determining the most relevant content and advertisements to show you, and to monitor site traffic and performance, so that we may improve our websites and your experience. You may opt out of our use of such cookies (and the associated “sale” of your Personal Information) by using this toggle switch. You will still see some advertising, regardless of your selection. Because we do not track you across different devices, browsers and GEMG properties, your selection will take effect only on this browser, this device and this website.

Targeting Cookies

We also use cookies to personalize your experience on our websites, including by determining the most relevant content and advertisements to show you, and to monitor site traffic and performance, so that we may improve our websites and your experience. You may opt out of our use of such cookies (and the associated “sale” of your Personal Information) by using this toggle switch. You will still see some advertising, regardless of your selection. Because we do not track you across different devices, browsers and GEMG properties, your selection will take effect only on this browser, this device and this website.