abzee

What Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine Means for the Middle East

Don’t bet on Moscow.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine exposed several truths about its foreign policy, while the poor performance of its military has revealed facts about its defense policy. Both suggest that Gulf countries that have been seeking closer ties to Moscow as a hedge against a declining American commitment to the region are likely wasting their time. 

Russia, already straitened by sanctions, will find itself further weakened as the world moves away from the fossil fuels that undergird the bulk of its economy. Over the coming decades, funding for military research and development can be expected to slow to a trickle, reducing both Russia’s own relative military capability and its ability to supply other nations with cutting-edge weapons. Nor can Russia expect to draw significant foreign investment in its defense industry. Most investors will be deterred by current and threatened sanctions, while the others will be interested in exploiting the country’s economic desperation, not in rebuilding its military industry.

Meanwhile, Russia’s ability to supply willing buyers with current weapons will be greatly reduced while defense spending and production are funneled toward rebuilding its war-torn military. Nor will Moscow’s recent willingness to share technology with its export customers be an unalloyed draw. Russia leader Vladimir Putin is not transactional; his choices are made with an eye to long-term goals. Buyers of Russian military hardware should understand that he will expect this favor returned.

Russia’s goals and the Middle East

Putin began the invasion of Ukraine with two goals. First, the strategic aim to “break American dominance,” as a Syrian government official recently put it to me, and to establish a unipolar world order in which Russia is perceived as the primary superpower. 

Moscow’s logic is this: A successful seizure of Ukraine will cause a crisis of confidence in the U.S. and NATO, and that this will be reflected in the willingness of other nations to back Russia at the UN; evade sanctions for Russia’s benefit; and invite Russian troops and Russian bases to their ports and soil. Russia would be perceived as the only global heavyweight willing to back their goals with military action, and will therefore be the partner of choice for national governments seeking to retain power and fringe groups seeking to seize it.

But Moscow offers neither the trade nor the development incentives of the U.S., Europe, or China. Its foreign policy success in Syria thus far is based on militarily backing an unwanted dictator. The depletion of Russia’s military in Ukraine and the tumbling of Russia’s economy will make this brand of foreign policy impossible. What will Russia have to replace it?  

Russia’s second strategic aim in Ukraine is rooted in a realistic assessment of economic forecasts. As its economy shrinks, it will need funds, resources, and tools from outside its borders to stay afloat. Moscow will look to its neighbors for food security, mining production, market access, and transport routes. Putin’s political actions in Belarus and Kazakhstan—where he financed and armed an attempted coup this January—demonstrate his belief that he needs puppet governments in surrounding capitals. When Ukraine failed to acquiesce, Putin chose to invade.

Russia’s desperate needs will turn Putin’s eye to the Middle East. The Gulf should expect arm-twisting within OPEC+, for as long as it exists, as well as pressure to share green energy technology that would then make Russia their competitor. Russia will continue to use its leverage in the UN, with Iran, and with Syria, to increase or decrease the ability of groups like the Houthis and Hezbollah to arm themselves, and will use this to extract favors from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Israel in Europe, Syria, Libya, Iraq, or across Africa that may be expensive or cost them critical international goodwill. Egypt has been spared this pressure thus far and has not been put in a position to compromise their own foreign policies, but that pressure is likely coming.  

Hedging is risky

The UAE’s abstention from the UN’s vote to condemn the Russian invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 27 was understandable in the context of Dubai’s immediate national security concerns. It was expected and logical that Russia would introduce a resolution to designate and disrupt armament of the Houthis as soon as they took the Presidency of the Security Council. Russia has prevented passage of any new resolution on the Houthis for the past five or more years. Unlocking their support was critical. 

But it comes with serious risk: Fast-forward to a theoretical ground incursion by Iran into the UAE. In this situation, because they abstained on the Ukraine vote, the UAE should expect the international community to similarly abstain from condemning an Iranian violation of their sovereignty. 

The Emirati abstention on the U.S.-sponsored vote in the UN Security Council surprised the Biden administration (though it should not have) and angered many members of Congress. Herein lies a second, if somewhat limited, political risk taken by the UAE.In August 2017, then-President Donald Trump signed the Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act, or CAATSA, which aims to punish Moscow for its destabilizing actions globally. Under this legislation, countries that trade with Russia’s defense or intelligence sectors are susceptible to secondary sanctions. This presents some risk for the UAE, though it is unclear how Washington might implement secondary sanctions or what incentives it could offer its partners to stop cooperating with Russia. 

Reducing risk

The U.S. and Europe would like to see countries in the Middle East join them in supporting Ukraine’s resistance against the war waged by Russia. If NATO countries lend Ukraine combat aircraft, they gamble with sparking a world war. Arab nations would not risk the same escalation by doing so. Humanitarian relief is one thing, but the Gulf could also funnel much-needed funding or protective equipment to Ukraine’s fighters with much less red tape than the U.S. or European nations. 

Saudi Arabia could manage this desire from western partners to their political advantage. The Kingdom would prefer not to increase oil output, despite pressure from the U.S. to raise production and bring down the price per barrel on the international market. Any Saudi support for Ukraine would likely result in Russian refusal to follow Saudi direction in OPEC+. This would allow Saudi to say “yes” to U.S. requests to increase production, but not have to fulfill them, on the grounds that Russian refusal tied their hands.

Gulf countries could be helpful to the international community by using their understanding of Russian needs to devise pathways for Russia to withdraw from Ukraine while saving face. Without a route to an offramp, Russia is unlikely to pull back. 

The tragedy for Russia is that it is also unlikely to win. And this flawed invasion experiment has only served to strengthen America’s standing in the world. It has proven that America can still easily build global coalitions when necessary. While Russia will be radioactive, more a predatory pariah than partner. It would be foolish for nations that previously enjoyed beneficial relations with Russia to invite that radioactivity onto themselves now, in the emerging world order where Russia is not the unipolar power it hoped to become, but instead a failed bet.

Kirsten Fontenrose is president of Red Six International, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, and a former Senior Director for the Gulf at the White House.

X
This website uses cookies to enhance user experience and to analyze performance and traffic on our website. We also share information about your use of our site with our social media, advertising and analytics partners. Learn More / Do Not Sell My Personal Information
Accept Cookies
X
Cookie Preferences Cookie List

Do Not Sell My Personal Information

When you visit our website, we store cookies on your browser to collect information. The information collected might relate to you, your preferences or your device, and is mostly used to make the site work as you expect it to and to provide a more personalized web experience. However, you can choose not to allow certain types of cookies, which may impact your experience of the site and the services we are able to offer. Click on the different category headings to find out more and change our default settings according to your preference. You cannot opt-out of our First Party Strictly Necessary Cookies as they are deployed in order to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting the cookie banner and remembering your settings, to log into your account, to redirect you when you log out, etc.). For more information about the First and Third Party Cookies used please follow this link.

Allow All Cookies

Manage Consent Preferences

Strictly Necessary Cookies - Always Active

We do not allow you to opt-out of our certain cookies, as they are necessary to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting our cookie banner and remembering your privacy choices) and/or to monitor site performance. These cookies are not used in a way that constitutes a “sale” of your data under the CCPA. You can set your browser to block or alert you about these cookies, but some parts of the site will not work as intended if you do so. You can usually find these settings in the Options or Preferences menu of your browser. Visit www.allaboutcookies.org to learn more.

Sale of Personal Data, Targeting & Social Media Cookies

Under the California Consumer Privacy Act, you have the right to opt-out of the sale of your personal information to third parties. These cookies collect information for analytics and to personalize your experience with targeted ads. You may exercise your right to opt out of the sale of personal information by using this toggle switch. If you opt out we will not be able to offer you personalised ads and will not hand over your personal information to any third parties. Additionally, you may contact our legal department for further clarification about your rights as a California consumer by using this Exercise My Rights link

If you have enabled privacy controls on your browser (such as a plugin), we have to take that as a valid request to opt-out. Therefore we would not be able to track your activity through the web. This may affect our ability to personalize ads according to your preferences.

Targeting cookies may be set through our site by our advertising partners. They may be used by those companies to build a profile of your interests and show you relevant adverts on other sites. They do not store directly personal information, but are based on uniquely identifying your browser and internet device. If you do not allow these cookies, you will experience less targeted advertising.

Social media cookies are set by a range of social media services that we have added to the site to enable you to share our content with your friends and networks. They are capable of tracking your browser across other sites and building up a profile of your interests. This may impact the content and messages you see on other websites you visit. If you do not allow these cookies you may not be able to use or see these sharing tools.

If you want to opt out of all of our lead reports and lists, please submit a privacy request at our Do Not Sell page.

Save Settings
Cookie Preferences Cookie List

Cookie List

A cookie is a small piece of data (text file) that a website – when visited by a user – asks your browser to store on your device in order to remember information about you, such as your language preference or login information. Those cookies are set by us and called first-party cookies. We also use third-party cookies – which are cookies from a domain different than the domain of the website you are visiting – for our advertising and marketing efforts. More specifically, we use cookies and other tracking technologies for the following purposes:

Strictly Necessary Cookies

We do not allow you to opt-out of our certain cookies, as they are necessary to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting our cookie banner and remembering your privacy choices) and/or to monitor site performance. These cookies are not used in a way that constitutes a “sale” of your data under the CCPA. You can set your browser to block or alert you about these cookies, but some parts of the site will not work as intended if you do so. You can usually find these settings in the Options or Preferences menu of your browser. Visit www.allaboutcookies.org to learn more.

Functional Cookies

We do not allow you to opt-out of our certain cookies, as they are necessary to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting our cookie banner and remembering your privacy choices) and/or to monitor site performance. These cookies are not used in a way that constitutes a “sale” of your data under the CCPA. You can set your browser to block or alert you about these cookies, but some parts of the site will not work as intended if you do so. You can usually find these settings in the Options or Preferences menu of your browser. Visit www.allaboutcookies.org to learn more.

Performance Cookies

We do not allow you to opt-out of our certain cookies, as they are necessary to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting our cookie banner and remembering your privacy choices) and/or to monitor site performance. These cookies are not used in a way that constitutes a “sale” of your data under the CCPA. You can set your browser to block or alert you about these cookies, but some parts of the site will not work as intended if you do so. You can usually find these settings in the Options or Preferences menu of your browser. Visit www.allaboutcookies.org to learn more.

Sale of Personal Data

We also use cookies to personalize your experience on our websites, including by determining the most relevant content and advertisements to show you, and to monitor site traffic and performance, so that we may improve our websites and your experience. You may opt out of our use of such cookies (and the associated “sale” of your Personal Information) by using this toggle switch. You will still see some advertising, regardless of your selection. Because we do not track you across different devices, browsers and GEMG properties, your selection will take effect only on this browser, this device and this website.

Social Media Cookies

We also use cookies to personalize your experience on our websites, including by determining the most relevant content and advertisements to show you, and to monitor site traffic and performance, so that we may improve our websites and your experience. You may opt out of our use of such cookies (and the associated “sale” of your Personal Information) by using this toggle switch. You will still see some advertising, regardless of your selection. Because we do not track you across different devices, browsers and GEMG properties, your selection will take effect only on this browser, this device and this website.

Targeting Cookies

We also use cookies to personalize your experience on our websites, including by determining the most relevant content and advertisements to show you, and to monitor site traffic and performance, so that we may improve our websites and your experience. You may opt out of our use of such cookies (and the associated “sale” of your Personal Information) by using this toggle switch. You will still see some advertising, regardless of your selection. Because we do not track you across different devices, browsers and GEMG properties, your selection will take effect only on this browser, this device and this website.