A J-11BS fighter jet of the People's Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) performs in the sky during Changchun Air Show at Changchun Dafangshen Airport on August 27, 2022.

A J-11BS fighter jet of the People's Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) performs in the sky during Changchun Air Show at Changchun Dafangshen Airport on August 27, 2022. Qian Baihua/VCG via Getty Images

China Is Eating Russia’s Lunch in the Defense Market

The script has flipped in the countries’ traditional defense-industrial relationship.

In the new Sino-Russian defense relationship, China does what it wants, and there isn’t a whole lot Russia can do about it. 

Xi Jingping’s recent visit to Moscow—his first since Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine last year—was summed up by historian Sergey Radchenko in this way: “The summit can be summarised by the Chinese saying 雷声大雨点小 (Loud thunder but few raindrops). Scratch that, even the thunder wasn’t all that loud.” 

The meeting, which apparently produced no major policy shifts nor even notable statements of support, did further illustrate a tectonic shift in the supposed "no limits" relationship: China is taking the lead in nearly every aspect, including in the defense-industrial sphere once dominated by Russia.

Russia’s modern defense ties to China go back to the 1920s. when the new Communist regime in Moscow initially supported the Kuomintang, rather than Mao’s forces, during the Chinese civil war and in the battle against imperial Japan. But Stalin eventually came to back the Chinese Communist Party, handing over Manchuria and its heavy industry in 1945, then supplying economic aid and helping to establish the nascent People’s Republic of China’s civilian and defense manufacturing sector. During this period, the USSR willingly transferred various military technologies to the PRC, including systems that China eventually recast into the J-5 and the J-6 fighter aircraft, as well as the H-6 bomber. This was not merely an expression of goodwill; by allowing an ally to copy their designs, the USSR was able to not only arm a close partner without stressing its own manufacturing, but also rely on them for a supply of materiel to other client states, such as during the Korean War.

Their strategic partnership frayed as the Cold War continued, yet swathes of China’s defense industry, from missiles and radar to warships, have been heavily influenced by equivalent Soviet and then Russian models. Some of these models were licensed directly from Russian defense conglomerates; others were either stolen or legitimately purchased and then reverse-engineered.

In the post-Soviet era, even as Russian firms showed more concern about corporate espionage and technological theft, cooperation between the two countries’ defense industries surged again. This is not just a reflection of their increasingly close ties, but also because defense technology is a rare area where Russian products remained globally competitive and better than their Chinese counterparts. But Moscow increasingly grew caught in a dilemma of immediate sales versus long term loss. It has consistently taken the short view, continuing its arms sales to China, even if it knows that its eastern partner is likely to copy these products and erode its advantage. This policy dilemma has been compounded by the post-Ukraine effect on Russia’s economy, which has left the Russian economy increasingly reliant on China, further decreasing any remaining leverage in the relationship.

Aviation and air defense show this in action.

The J-11, debuted in 1996, was the first Chinese aircraft made after the fall of the Soviet Union to feature significant Russian input. It began as an officially licensed, Chinese-made copy of the Russian Su-27 multirole fighter, a sale welcomed by the cash-strapped Kremlin. However, before long, China canceled the agreement and began producing the aircraft independently, going on to build over 400 of them—a loss to Russia of roughly $30 million or more in sales per plane. 

This appears to have become standard operating procedure for China. For example, when Beijing was looking to upgrade the J-11D, it decided the best method was to purchase Russia’s advanced Su-35 multirole fighter. The deal was completed in 2018 and conspicuously included numerous spare turbofan engines. China then reverse-engineered the engine, shoring up a broader area of continued weakness in its indigenous arms industry. An even more accelerated version of this process played out with Russia’s Su-33 carrier-based fighter. China obtained an early version and began producing an unlicensed indigenous version, the J-15. 

Similarly, China’s defense industry has bought, copied, and adapted Russian-made air and missile defense systems, apparently with Russian acquiescence. Six years after acquiring Russia’s S-300, China produced its own copy, the HQ-9, which still serves as one of the PLA’s primary surface-to-air missile systems. Likewise, the Chinese HQ-16 missile system was copied from the Russia Buk-M1-2 but appears to have been made in full collaboration with the Russian Almaz-Antey Corporation. This trend continues with even the most advanced systems, as China purchased the state-of-the-art S-400 in 2014, began testing in 2018, and appears to be currently using the system to improve its own designs.

If Russian officials are unhappy with China slowly absorbing more and more of its defense market, they have remained low-key about it. Aware of its limited options, Russia has tried to make the best of the situation, promoting official licensing and tech-transfer deals. While many of these licensing and technology-sharing agreements respond to China’s earlier technology thefts, they are also reflect Russia’s increasing international isolation. As far back as 2019, a representative from Rostec implied that U.S. pressure was harming its arms business with Turkey. In October 2021, just four months before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Rostec announced it would pull away from conducting dollar transactions and maintain strong business ties with East Asia. Last year, Rostec announced a full decoupling from Western countries in the aerospace field. Chinese firms have been more than happy to try to step into this void. 

This dependency has now turned from markets to military hardware itself. The perfect storm of Western sanctions and severed business and political ties have severely curtailed Russia’s options in supplying its own forces, especially as the war consumes far more parts than expected. China’s practice of purchasing Russian modeled weapons, largely for acquiring the technology to make itself, though, means China now has a large reserve of military hardware it can supply to Russia’s flagging war effort.

In February, the Chinese firm AVIC International delivered $1.2 million in parts for Russia’s Su-35 fighter, which China began operating in 2018 and has been studying for its own fighter development. The PLA Air Force has also used a subsidiary to deliver critical components for Russia’s S-400 missile defense system. The deliveries also included navigation equipment for the Russian Mi1-71 helicopters, for which China now runs a maintenance center. In new technology areas, China has provided at least $12 million in drones and drone parts since the war began. 

As the war goes on, Russia will likely need even more of China’s military industrial capacity to keep elements of the Russian war machine on its feet. Russia faces massive sanctions from the international community, and its defense industry is being forced to source critical components through elaborate third-party arrangements, and even electronics cannibalized from washing machines and refrigerators. Their changing ambitions were recently summed up by Russia's Kommersant newspaper: "Technological sovereignty for the Russian Federation and China means two different things. China has set itself the task of producing the entire range of key products and possessing all key technologies as the global leader. For Russia...it is about the possession of a minimum set of technologies that would allow it to compete with the West and not lag behind in development."

Under these conditions, China has even more leverage in a relationship that was already tilting its way. The accelerated loss of one of Russia’s few competitive edges against China and in the global market is among the many costs of Putin’s war. As Russia’s defense industry collapses, Chinese firms are moving to the fore in supplying not just the PLA, but also foreign markets that Russia once sold arms to, and even now to the Russian military itself. 

The new China-Russia defense industrial relationship can best be summed as beneficial to both parties, but one in which China ultimately benefits far more.  

Thomas Corbett is a research analyst with BluePath Labs. His areas of focus include Chinese foreign relations, emerging technology, and Indo-Pacific security studies.

X
This website uses cookies to enhance user experience and to analyze performance and traffic on our website. We also share information about your use of our site with our social media, advertising and analytics partners. Learn More / Do Not Sell My Personal Information
Accept Cookies
X
Cookie Preferences Cookie List

Do Not Sell My Personal Information

When you visit our website, we store cookies on your browser to collect information. The information collected might relate to you, your preferences or your device, and is mostly used to make the site work as you expect it to and to provide a more personalized web experience. However, you can choose not to allow certain types of cookies, which may impact your experience of the site and the services we are able to offer. Click on the different category headings to find out more and change our default settings according to your preference. You cannot opt-out of our First Party Strictly Necessary Cookies as they are deployed in order to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting the cookie banner and remembering your settings, to log into your account, to redirect you when you log out, etc.). For more information about the First and Third Party Cookies used please follow this link.

Allow All Cookies

Manage Consent Preferences

Strictly Necessary Cookies - Always Active

We do not allow you to opt-out of our certain cookies, as they are necessary to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting our cookie banner and remembering your privacy choices) and/or to monitor site performance. These cookies are not used in a way that constitutes a “sale” of your data under the CCPA. You can set your browser to block or alert you about these cookies, but some parts of the site will not work as intended if you do so. You can usually find these settings in the Options or Preferences menu of your browser. Visit www.allaboutcookies.org to learn more.

Sale of Personal Data, Targeting & Social Media Cookies

Under the California Consumer Privacy Act, you have the right to opt-out of the sale of your personal information to third parties. These cookies collect information for analytics and to personalize your experience with targeted ads. You may exercise your right to opt out of the sale of personal information by using this toggle switch. If you opt out we will not be able to offer you personalised ads and will not hand over your personal information to any third parties. Additionally, you may contact our legal department for further clarification about your rights as a California consumer by using this Exercise My Rights link

If you have enabled privacy controls on your browser (such as a plugin), we have to take that as a valid request to opt-out. Therefore we would not be able to track your activity through the web. This may affect our ability to personalize ads according to your preferences.

Targeting cookies may be set through our site by our advertising partners. They may be used by those companies to build a profile of your interests and show you relevant adverts on other sites. They do not store directly personal information, but are based on uniquely identifying your browser and internet device. If you do not allow these cookies, you will experience less targeted advertising.

Social media cookies are set by a range of social media services that we have added to the site to enable you to share our content with your friends and networks. They are capable of tracking your browser across other sites and building up a profile of your interests. This may impact the content and messages you see on other websites you visit. If you do not allow these cookies you may not be able to use or see these sharing tools.

If you want to opt out of all of our lead reports and lists, please submit a privacy request at our Do Not Sell page.

Save Settings
Cookie Preferences Cookie List

Cookie List

A cookie is a small piece of data (text file) that a website – when visited by a user – asks your browser to store on your device in order to remember information about you, such as your language preference or login information. Those cookies are set by us and called first-party cookies. We also use third-party cookies – which are cookies from a domain different than the domain of the website you are visiting – for our advertising and marketing efforts. More specifically, we use cookies and other tracking technologies for the following purposes:

Strictly Necessary Cookies

We do not allow you to opt-out of our certain cookies, as they are necessary to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting our cookie banner and remembering your privacy choices) and/or to monitor site performance. These cookies are not used in a way that constitutes a “sale” of your data under the CCPA. You can set your browser to block or alert you about these cookies, but some parts of the site will not work as intended if you do so. You can usually find these settings in the Options or Preferences menu of your browser. Visit www.allaboutcookies.org to learn more.

Functional Cookies

We do not allow you to opt-out of our certain cookies, as they are necessary to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting our cookie banner and remembering your privacy choices) and/or to monitor site performance. These cookies are not used in a way that constitutes a “sale” of your data under the CCPA. You can set your browser to block or alert you about these cookies, but some parts of the site will not work as intended if you do so. You can usually find these settings in the Options or Preferences menu of your browser. Visit www.allaboutcookies.org to learn more.

Performance Cookies

We do not allow you to opt-out of our certain cookies, as they are necessary to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting our cookie banner and remembering your privacy choices) and/or to monitor site performance. These cookies are not used in a way that constitutes a “sale” of your data under the CCPA. You can set your browser to block or alert you about these cookies, but some parts of the site will not work as intended if you do so. You can usually find these settings in the Options or Preferences menu of your browser. Visit www.allaboutcookies.org to learn more.

Sale of Personal Data

We also use cookies to personalize your experience on our websites, including by determining the most relevant content and advertisements to show you, and to monitor site traffic and performance, so that we may improve our websites and your experience. You may opt out of our use of such cookies (and the associated “sale” of your Personal Information) by using this toggle switch. You will still see some advertising, regardless of your selection. Because we do not track you across different devices, browsers and GEMG properties, your selection will take effect only on this browser, this device and this website.

Social Media Cookies

We also use cookies to personalize your experience on our websites, including by determining the most relevant content and advertisements to show you, and to monitor site traffic and performance, so that we may improve our websites and your experience. You may opt out of our use of such cookies (and the associated “sale” of your Personal Information) by using this toggle switch. You will still see some advertising, regardless of your selection. Because we do not track you across different devices, browsers and GEMG properties, your selection will take effect only on this browser, this device and this website.

Targeting Cookies

We also use cookies to personalize your experience on our websites, including by determining the most relevant content and advertisements to show you, and to monitor site traffic and performance, so that we may improve our websites and your experience. You may opt out of our use of such cookies (and the associated “sale” of your Personal Information) by using this toggle switch. You will still see some advertising, regardless of your selection. Because we do not track you across different devices, browsers and GEMG properties, your selection will take effect only on this browser, this device and this website.