A SpaceX Falcon Heavy rocket launches from Kennedy Space Center, Fla., Nov. 1, 2022, the first National Security Space Launch mission carried out by a Falcon Heavy.

A SpaceX Falcon Heavy rocket launches from Kennedy Space Center, Fla., Nov. 1, 2022, the first National Security Space Launch mission carried out by a Falcon Heavy. U.S. Space Force / Senior Airman Dakota Raub

Space Force Woos New Launch Bidders—But Startups Aren’t Quite Ready

Established giants are likely to win the first contracts awarded under a novel “two-lane” approach.

Pentagon leaders had hoped their next big competition for satellite launches would usher new entrants into the market. Instead, the work is poised to go to the pair of companies that currently dominate the market—at least for now.

In February, the Space Force announced that it would split the bidding for dozens of launches into two groups. “Lane 1” will include the “more risk tolerant” missions, “Lane 2” the more challenging and “critical” ones. By hiving off a pool of easier missions to bid for, Space Force leaders hope to enable emerging companies to better compete against industry leaders SpaceX and ULA.

But there is nothing that bars these established giants from competing for the Lane 1 launches—and no one else has rockets that can do the job yet anyway. Industry sources say it could be several years before emerging companies have finished developing their engines for new medium and heavy vehicles.

That’s fine for now, said Maj. Gen. Stephen Purdy, who runs the National Space Security Launch program at Space Systems Command. Companies that are on a credible path to launch a rocket that can haul 20,000 pounds to low Earth orbit within a year can join the indefinite delivery/indefinite quantity contract that Space Force will use for the tranche, dubbed National Space Security Launch Phase 3. But to actually win a launch job, a company’s new rocket must have successfully put at least one other customer’s satellite into space.

“If they won't be able to fall in on year one, we know we have two solid providers in Lane 2 that can bid in Lane 1. When they're able to execute and when they've got their commercial bid in place, they can on-ramp to the IDIQ at that point,” Purdy said at the recent Space Symposium in Colorado Springs, Colorado.

The Space Force aims to start awarding contracts in 2025 and begin launches in 2027 but it “really depends where the commercial market is,” Purdy said. He hopes that by “year three or so” all of the market forces will be in play and the Space Force can have a multi-phase competition. Lane 1 will award contracts through 2029, with an option to continue for five more years. Lane 2 contracts will be awarded through 2029.

“I think the people that you envision are the companies that have already flown something, like SpaceX, Relativity, Astra, Firefly, ABL. There are a number of companies in that kind of range that have already started…I don't see a true startup going directly into NSSL,” said Randy Kendall, vice president of launch program operations at the Aerospace Corporation.

Kendall said another major player is sure to be Rocket Lab, a company that has been dominating the small launch market. The company is developing a larger, reusable rocket, Neutron, to haul almost 30,000 pounds to LEO and compete for Lane 1 launches.

Rocket Lab CEO Peter Beck said he’s “pleased with the requirement for Lane 1 competitors to have accomplished a successful mission to orbit, so it separates out paper rockets.”

Rocket Lab, which began developing the Neutron in 2021, is aiming for first flight next year—a timeline some doubt is possible. For example, SpaceX's Raptor engine started development in 2014 and didn't have its first flight test until last week.

“When would we have new Lane 1 providers? That's hard to say because it depends on how a lot of things go over the next couple of years, with some of these new providers building out their new systems,” Kendall said. 

Relativity Space recently delayed the planned first launch of its Terran R rocket by two years to 2026. The reusable rocket is designed to lift more than 50,000 pounds to LEO.

“We fully understand the need for incumbents to continue to provide launch services in Lane 1 as emerging providers work to field medium- to heavy-lift vehicles over the next several years,” said Josh Brost, Relativity’s senior vice president of revenue operations. “Relativity is leveraging lessons learned from our Terran 1 pathfinder vehicle and scaling production and test capabilities that de-risk Terran R’s core systems and allow us to share a realistic schedule with our customers and the public.”

The two lane-system comes after calls from Congress for the Space Force to widen its NSSL program.

The new approach reflects congressional direction to “to maintain reliability requirements for assured launch, while responding to the increased demand for launches and fostering competition,” said Rep. Doug Lamborn, R-Colo., chairman of the House Armed Services strategic forces subcommittee.

This strikes a balance while recognizing that “there are certain operational requirements that only the advanced incumbents are physically able to meet,” said Rep. Seth Moulton, D-Mass., ranking member of the strategic forces subcommittee.

Purdy said “most people” he talked to at the Space Symposium favor the two-lane approach, but predicted “minor wording changes” when the second draft comes out in a few months. The Space Force aims to release the final RFP by the end of the year, he said. 

All this is happening amid reports that ULA co-owners Boeing and Lockheed Martin will put the joint venture up for sale later this year. The company is slated to receive engines from Jeff Bezos’s Blue Origin.

While the exact timeline for new companies to fly Lane 1 missions is unclear, Kendall said the Space Force is clearly interested in developing the domestic launch market and there will continue to be a “tremendous” demand for these services with the increase of proliferated LEO constellations. 

“For a long time, the holy grail of launch was to generate a high enough launch rate that you'd get reliability, and low prices, economic operating quantities—things like that—and I think we're effectively there today,” he said.

X
This website uses cookies to enhance user experience and to analyze performance and traffic on our website. We also share information about your use of our site with our social media, advertising and analytics partners. Learn More / Do Not Sell My Personal Information
Accept Cookies
X
Cookie Preferences Cookie List

Do Not Sell My Personal Information

When you visit our website, we store cookies on your browser to collect information. The information collected might relate to you, your preferences or your device, and is mostly used to make the site work as you expect it to and to provide a more personalized web experience. However, you can choose not to allow certain types of cookies, which may impact your experience of the site and the services we are able to offer. Click on the different category headings to find out more and change our default settings according to your preference. You cannot opt-out of our First Party Strictly Necessary Cookies as they are deployed in order to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting the cookie banner and remembering your settings, to log into your account, to redirect you when you log out, etc.). For more information about the First and Third Party Cookies used please follow this link.

Allow All Cookies

Manage Consent Preferences

Strictly Necessary Cookies - Always Active

We do not allow you to opt-out of our certain cookies, as they are necessary to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting our cookie banner and remembering your privacy choices) and/or to monitor site performance. These cookies are not used in a way that constitutes a “sale” of your data under the CCPA. You can set your browser to block or alert you about these cookies, but some parts of the site will not work as intended if you do so. You can usually find these settings in the Options or Preferences menu of your browser. Visit www.allaboutcookies.org to learn more.

Sale of Personal Data, Targeting & Social Media Cookies

Under the California Consumer Privacy Act, you have the right to opt-out of the sale of your personal information to third parties. These cookies collect information for analytics and to personalize your experience with targeted ads. You may exercise your right to opt out of the sale of personal information by using this toggle switch. If you opt out we will not be able to offer you personalised ads and will not hand over your personal information to any third parties. Additionally, you may contact our legal department for further clarification about your rights as a California consumer by using this Exercise My Rights link

If you have enabled privacy controls on your browser (such as a plugin), we have to take that as a valid request to opt-out. Therefore we would not be able to track your activity through the web. This may affect our ability to personalize ads according to your preferences.

Targeting cookies may be set through our site by our advertising partners. They may be used by those companies to build a profile of your interests and show you relevant adverts on other sites. They do not store directly personal information, but are based on uniquely identifying your browser and internet device. If you do not allow these cookies, you will experience less targeted advertising.

Social media cookies are set by a range of social media services that we have added to the site to enable you to share our content with your friends and networks. They are capable of tracking your browser across other sites and building up a profile of your interests. This may impact the content and messages you see on other websites you visit. If you do not allow these cookies you may not be able to use or see these sharing tools.

If you want to opt out of all of our lead reports and lists, please submit a privacy request at our Do Not Sell page.

Save Settings
Cookie Preferences Cookie List

Cookie List

A cookie is a small piece of data (text file) that a website – when visited by a user – asks your browser to store on your device in order to remember information about you, such as your language preference or login information. Those cookies are set by us and called first-party cookies. We also use third-party cookies – which are cookies from a domain different than the domain of the website you are visiting – for our advertising and marketing efforts. More specifically, we use cookies and other tracking technologies for the following purposes:

Strictly Necessary Cookies

We do not allow you to opt-out of our certain cookies, as they are necessary to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting our cookie banner and remembering your privacy choices) and/or to monitor site performance. These cookies are not used in a way that constitutes a “sale” of your data under the CCPA. You can set your browser to block or alert you about these cookies, but some parts of the site will not work as intended if you do so. You can usually find these settings in the Options or Preferences menu of your browser. Visit www.allaboutcookies.org to learn more.

Functional Cookies

We do not allow you to opt-out of our certain cookies, as they are necessary to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting our cookie banner and remembering your privacy choices) and/or to monitor site performance. These cookies are not used in a way that constitutes a “sale” of your data under the CCPA. You can set your browser to block or alert you about these cookies, but some parts of the site will not work as intended if you do so. You can usually find these settings in the Options or Preferences menu of your browser. Visit www.allaboutcookies.org to learn more.

Performance Cookies

We do not allow you to opt-out of our certain cookies, as they are necessary to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting our cookie banner and remembering your privacy choices) and/or to monitor site performance. These cookies are not used in a way that constitutes a “sale” of your data under the CCPA. You can set your browser to block or alert you about these cookies, but some parts of the site will not work as intended if you do so. You can usually find these settings in the Options or Preferences menu of your browser. Visit www.allaboutcookies.org to learn more.

Sale of Personal Data

We also use cookies to personalize your experience on our websites, including by determining the most relevant content and advertisements to show you, and to monitor site traffic and performance, so that we may improve our websites and your experience. You may opt out of our use of such cookies (and the associated “sale” of your Personal Information) by using this toggle switch. You will still see some advertising, regardless of your selection. Because we do not track you across different devices, browsers and GEMG properties, your selection will take effect only on this browser, this device and this website.

Social Media Cookies

We also use cookies to personalize your experience on our websites, including by determining the most relevant content and advertisements to show you, and to monitor site traffic and performance, so that we may improve our websites and your experience. You may opt out of our use of such cookies (and the associated “sale” of your Personal Information) by using this toggle switch. You will still see some advertising, regardless of your selection. Because we do not track you across different devices, browsers and GEMG properties, your selection will take effect only on this browser, this device and this website.

Targeting Cookies

We also use cookies to personalize your experience on our websites, including by determining the most relevant content and advertisements to show you, and to monitor site traffic and performance, so that we may improve our websites and your experience. You may opt out of our use of such cookies (and the associated “sale” of your Personal Information) by using this toggle switch. You will still see some advertising, regardless of your selection. Because we do not track you across different devices, browsers and GEMG properties, your selection will take effect only on this browser, this device and this website.