In this Monday, March 18, 2019, photo, U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) fighter fire on Islamic State militant positions in Baghouz, Syria.

In this Monday, March 18, 2019, photo, U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) fighter fire on Islamic State militant positions in Baghouz, Syria. AP Photo/Maya Alleruzzo

The Future of Conflict is Proxy Warfare, Again

A new CNA study offers seven lessons from America’s experience with supporting one side from afar.

Great-power competition may conjure up images of war in Europe or the Pacific, and U.S. defense planners are rightly preparing for head-on collisions. But the Cold War and the Global War on Terror suggest that the future of conflict will more likely be limited to indirect skirmishes at the fringes of great-power influence. To succeed in this environment, the United States should plan for proxy warfare

So we looked at the U.S. experience with conflicts in which it supported one side without playing a major direct role in the fight. Cold War examples include the Hmong army in Laos, the Afghan mujahideen, and the Nicaraguan contras. We also examined the more recent Anbar Awakening in Iraq, the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM), and the Syrian Democratic Forces, or SDF. We gleaned several key lessons, which we have laid out in “The Cheapest Insurance in the World? The United States and Proxy Warfare, a new report from CNA. 

In each case we studied, proxies achieved some U.S. goals. The Sons of Iraq in Al Anbar province suppressed insurgent activity, reducing U.S. casualties. The Hmong tied up North Vietnamese divisions. AMISOM has disrupted — though not defeatedal-Shabaab and improved security in Somalia. The mujahideen got the job done in Afghanistan, harassing Soviet forces until Moscow withdrew. And the Kurdish-dominated SDF took and held Syrian territory from the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria, or ISIS.

And yet planners must weigh near-term objectives against possible collateral effects. The United States has endured blowback from providing training and arms to the mujahideen. Support to the SDF has created a diplomatic headache with Turkey, whose ties to its NATO allies were already under strain. 

Related: A French Officer Speaks the Truth about the War in Syria

Related: Russia Is Co-opting Angry Young Men

Related: The US-China Cold War Is Now Playing Out in Pakistan

Second, proxies still require a U.S. footprint. Though the political and financial costs can be far less than those of direct military intervention — not to mention the risks to tens of thousands of U.S. ground forces — success depends upon some measure of U.S. involvement. For example, U.S. special operations forces advise, assist, and accompany AMISOM units during operations in Somalia, and U.S. aircraft provide strikes when these patrols come under assault by al-Shabaab. These sponsor forces operate in harm’s way, and the logistical tail to support U.S. forces embedded with partner forces can be complex.

Third, efforts to use proxies should be confined to irregular warfare. In great power conflict, or facing any well-trained state military, it is a mistake to employ a proxy force in a conventional role. In Laos, the Hmong launched a successful guerrilla war against the North Vietnamese army and its local communist ally, the Pathet Lao. But once emboldened by U.S. air power, the Hmong went on to fight conventionally against the North Vietnamese, and subsequently suffered devastating losses.

Fourth, “secret” wars don’t stay secret. During the Cold War, U.S. leaders mounted proxy wars to mask U.S. involvement in various regions around the globe. But American backing for the Hmong, mujahideen, and Contras became public knowledge. That was three decades ago. Given the ubiquity of mobile phones and social media, it is difficult to imagine any large-scale proxy war staying secret. 

Fifth, proxies are likely to commit human rights abuses, so U.S. policymakers and military planners must to consider how to respond. The contras indiscriminately attacked Nicaraguan civilians, and reports of sexual assault in Somalia have dogged AMISOM forces. Abuse committed by U.S. proxies becomes America’s moral baggage. Even worse, the targeted population may conclude the United States is behind these violations. The Kurdish contingent of the SDF allegedly threatened Arabs with U.S. airstrikes as the Kurds moved to displace the local population from areas the SDF captured. 

Sixth, local legitimacy matters. Proxies that lack legitimacy appear to have less operational effectiveness. One reason for the success of the Anbar Awakening was that it provided the tribes of Iraq’s Anbar province with a parallel governing structure they viewed as more legitimate than rule from Baghdad. The less-successful Contras, in contrast, couldn’t gain legitimacy as Nicaragua’s “liberators” in the eyes of their compatriots. 

Finally, proxy warfare is transactional. The day after President Donald Trump announced his decision to pull all U.S. troops out of Syria — in effect abandoning the SDF — Defense Secretary James Mattis argued in his resignation letter for “maintaining strong alliances and showing respect to those allies.” But proxy warfare is a transactional relationship between sponsor and sponsored, not a long-term alliance. Proxies are meant to be cut loose after they serve their purpose. 

This may seem fickle, but knowing when to walk away can save the sponsor from mission creep. One can argue that it is too soon to withdraw from Syria. But the U.S. government was always clear that it would abandon the SDF eventually. U.S. Special Envoy James Jeffrey best explained the transactional nature of proxy warfare the day before President Trump made his withdrawal announcement: “We do not have permanent relationships with substate entities. That is not the policy of this administration and has not been the policy of other administrations.”

Proxies have agency, too. These groups gamble that the relationship, no matter how short-lived, will give them the weapons and other support needed in the immediate term, as well as training and assistance that could serve their own interests after the sponsorship ends.

Looking Ahead

To maximize the chances for success and minimize risks, our study recommends a number of “rules of thumb” for policymakers considering the use of proxies. These include setting limited, reasonable objectives and recognizing that proxies may take longer to achieve these objectives than direct U.S. military intervention. Planners should also consider collateral effects of support to proxies. 

Most important, proxies should not be treated as long-term partners with unquestioning support. Proxies that believe they have full support of their sponsor — no matter how they act — are more likely to act recklessly. When the conflict is over or proxies are no longer acting in U.S. interests, the United States must be prepared to walk away.

The views expressed here are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of CNA or any of its sponsors. 

X
This website uses cookies to enhance user experience and to analyze performance and traffic on our website. We also share information about your use of our site with our social media, advertising and analytics partners. Learn More / Do Not Sell My Personal Information
Accept Cookies
X
Cookie Preferences Cookie List

Do Not Sell My Personal Information

When you visit our website, we store cookies on your browser to collect information. The information collected might relate to you, your preferences or your device, and is mostly used to make the site work as you expect it to and to provide a more personalized web experience. However, you can choose not to allow certain types of cookies, which may impact your experience of the site and the services we are able to offer. Click on the different category headings to find out more and change our default settings according to your preference. You cannot opt-out of our First Party Strictly Necessary Cookies as they are deployed in order to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting the cookie banner and remembering your settings, to log into your account, to redirect you when you log out, etc.). For more information about the First and Third Party Cookies used please follow this link.

Allow All Cookies

Manage Consent Preferences

Strictly Necessary Cookies - Always Active

We do not allow you to opt-out of our certain cookies, as they are necessary to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting our cookie banner and remembering your privacy choices) and/or to monitor site performance. These cookies are not used in a way that constitutes a “sale” of your data under the CCPA. You can set your browser to block or alert you about these cookies, but some parts of the site will not work as intended if you do so. You can usually find these settings in the Options or Preferences menu of your browser. Visit www.allaboutcookies.org to learn more.

Sale of Personal Data, Targeting & Social Media Cookies

Under the California Consumer Privacy Act, you have the right to opt-out of the sale of your personal information to third parties. These cookies collect information for analytics and to personalize your experience with targeted ads. You may exercise your right to opt out of the sale of personal information by using this toggle switch. If you opt out we will not be able to offer you personalised ads and will not hand over your personal information to any third parties. Additionally, you may contact our legal department for further clarification about your rights as a California consumer by using this Exercise My Rights link

If you have enabled privacy controls on your browser (such as a plugin), we have to take that as a valid request to opt-out. Therefore we would not be able to track your activity through the web. This may affect our ability to personalize ads according to your preferences.

Targeting cookies may be set through our site by our advertising partners. They may be used by those companies to build a profile of your interests and show you relevant adverts on other sites. They do not store directly personal information, but are based on uniquely identifying your browser and internet device. If you do not allow these cookies, you will experience less targeted advertising.

Social media cookies are set by a range of social media services that we have added to the site to enable you to share our content with your friends and networks. They are capable of tracking your browser across other sites and building up a profile of your interests. This may impact the content and messages you see on other websites you visit. If you do not allow these cookies you may not be able to use or see these sharing tools.

If you want to opt out of all of our lead reports and lists, please submit a privacy request at our Do Not Sell page.

Save Settings
Cookie Preferences Cookie List

Cookie List

A cookie is a small piece of data (text file) that a website – when visited by a user – asks your browser to store on your device in order to remember information about you, such as your language preference or login information. Those cookies are set by us and called first-party cookies. We also use third-party cookies – which are cookies from a domain different than the domain of the website you are visiting – for our advertising and marketing efforts. More specifically, we use cookies and other tracking technologies for the following purposes:

Strictly Necessary Cookies

We do not allow you to opt-out of our certain cookies, as they are necessary to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting our cookie banner and remembering your privacy choices) and/or to monitor site performance. These cookies are not used in a way that constitutes a “sale” of your data under the CCPA. You can set your browser to block or alert you about these cookies, but some parts of the site will not work as intended if you do so. You can usually find these settings in the Options or Preferences menu of your browser. Visit www.allaboutcookies.org to learn more.

Functional Cookies

We do not allow you to opt-out of our certain cookies, as they are necessary to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting our cookie banner and remembering your privacy choices) and/or to monitor site performance. These cookies are not used in a way that constitutes a “sale” of your data under the CCPA. You can set your browser to block or alert you about these cookies, but some parts of the site will not work as intended if you do so. You can usually find these settings in the Options or Preferences menu of your browser. Visit www.allaboutcookies.org to learn more.

Performance Cookies

We do not allow you to opt-out of our certain cookies, as they are necessary to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting our cookie banner and remembering your privacy choices) and/or to monitor site performance. These cookies are not used in a way that constitutes a “sale” of your data under the CCPA. You can set your browser to block or alert you about these cookies, but some parts of the site will not work as intended if you do so. You can usually find these settings in the Options or Preferences menu of your browser. Visit www.allaboutcookies.org to learn more.

Sale of Personal Data

We also use cookies to personalize your experience on our websites, including by determining the most relevant content and advertisements to show you, and to monitor site traffic and performance, so that we may improve our websites and your experience. You may opt out of our use of such cookies (and the associated “sale” of your Personal Information) by using this toggle switch. You will still see some advertising, regardless of your selection. Because we do not track you across different devices, browsers and GEMG properties, your selection will take effect only on this browser, this device and this website.

Social Media Cookies

We also use cookies to personalize your experience on our websites, including by determining the most relevant content and advertisements to show you, and to monitor site traffic and performance, so that we may improve our websites and your experience. You may opt out of our use of such cookies (and the associated “sale” of your Personal Information) by using this toggle switch. You will still see some advertising, regardless of your selection. Because we do not track you across different devices, browsers and GEMG properties, your selection will take effect only on this browser, this device and this website.

Targeting Cookies

We also use cookies to personalize your experience on our websites, including by determining the most relevant content and advertisements to show you, and to monitor site traffic and performance, so that we may improve our websites and your experience. You may opt out of our use of such cookies (and the associated “sale” of your Personal Information) by using this toggle switch. You will still see some advertising, regardless of your selection. Because we do not track you across different devices, browsers and GEMG properties, your selection will take effect only on this browser, this device and this website.