Rohullah Salhe, 35, former Taliban member and former prisoner, left, and Jumah Gul, 40, right, a Taliban commander, stand in the mountains on the outskirts of Kandahar, Afghanistan, on Monday Oct. 26, 2020.

Rohullah Salhe, 35, former Taliban member and former prisoner, left, and Jumah Gul, 40, right, a Taliban commander, stand in the mountains on the outskirts of Kandahar, Afghanistan, on Monday Oct. 26, 2020. Marcus Yam / Los Angeles Times via Getty Images

Afghanistan’s Situation Didn’t Change. American Politics Did

The Biden administration says it can fight terrorism in a way that its predecessors called impossible. Can it?

The Earth did not change its shape. Southwestern Asia did not change its borders. No additional terrorists laid down their arms. But suddenly we’ve resolved one of the most important reasons for keeping U.S military forces in Afghanistan? 

Distance. That was among the top justifications that U.S. defense and military leaders have given — through three presidential administrations — for putting and keeping thousands of U.S. troops in Afghanistan. The argument was simple: Afghanistan is landlocked and located far from any major U.S. military bases. If U.S. leaders wanted the military to find, capture, and kill terrorists there, then U.S. forces needed jumping-off points in country and the kind of secure supply lines that come from heavy footprints. If they wanted to chase al Qaeda into Pakistan, as they did Osama bin Laden, they needed bases like the special operations lily pad at Jalalabad and the gigantic logistics hub at Bagram Air Base. 

Afghanistan is not Iraq or Syria, within easy reach of Middle East bases that house tens of thousands of U.S. troops, not to mention bodies of water large enough for carrier strike groups. It is too remote for routine airstrikes on al Qaeda or in-and-out special ops missions against ISIS. 

On Tuesday, a senior administration official told reporters that what had changed is the war, the threat, and the Taliban. The official argued that the United States invaded Afghanistan “to deliver justice” for the 9/11 attacks and prevent new ones on the U.S. homeland. “We believe we achieved that objective some years ago,” the official said.

The objective has not changed: “We have to continue relentlessly to work to prevent Afghanistan from again becoming a base from which terrorists can attack the United States,” the official said. But the execution has: “So, in coordination with our Afghanistan partners, and with other allies, we will reposition our counterterrorism capabilities, retaining significant assets in the region to counter the potential reemergence of the terrorist threat on the homeland from Afghanistan, and to hold the Taliban to its commitment to ensure al Qaeda does not once again threatened the United States, or our interests, or our allies.” 

Mission accomplished. The “forever war” can be declared over, even if the fighting continues. 

Joe Votel, who was among the first paratroopers into Afghanistan in 2001 and later oversaw U.S. forces in Afghanistan when he led U.S. Central Command, reacted unfavorably to the Biden administration’s decision. 

“Afghanistan is a bigger challenge because of its geographic location — a difficult operating environment that is often hard to reach,” Votel said. “Effective CT requires good intelligence, good partners, good capabilities and access. While probably not impossible — all of these will be much more challenged and difficult from over the horizon. It will mean that if we decide to respond to a significant terrorist threat — it will likely require a major military operation to get forces where we need them to be to act. This has implications for operational security, resources and timing. We have done some of this before — but it is a lot easier when you have partners and access. If we choose to take this approach — we will need to see what arrangements need to be in place to mitigate risk.”

Those details are still undecided, the senior administration official said, including where U.S. troops will be repositioned. In addition, the official said the Afghanistan pullout would free the forces to address terrorism elsewhere in the world. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin is at NATO headquarters in Brussels, this week, and Pentagon officials are expected to announce more in days to come, the official said. 

The bottom line is that Biden’s team has assessed that the threat is now “at a level that we can address it without a persistent military footprint.” We’ll find out if that’s true — or whether it sets up a repeat of the 2011 U.S. pullout from Iraq, which allowed ISIS to take control of much of that country and Syria. The official said that 2011 taught that the United States needs to keep sufficient intelligence and military capabilities positioned in the region (which arguably Obama did), and needs to keep focused the “attention of our national security apparatus” (which arguably Obama did not).

In other words, some of the same Democrats in charge of the 2011 pullout want Americans to believe they’re right, this time.

They have to say this. They ran on the popular promise to work to end “forever wars” while maintaining a foot on the neck of terrorists worldwide — the same promises made by Donald Trump. They say they are adapting. “This is not 2001, it is 2021,” the official said, in slight variations, repeatedly on a 20-minute call. They’re betting that withdrawal from Afghanistan honors that commitment and, more importantly, is wise policy. But the reality is that it makes  hunting terrorists more costly, less effective, and riskier for the operators still fighting this war, and the longer-term goal of keeping pressure on Islamist violent extremism. 

Biden’s senior official on Tuesday said that a “conditions-based approach” — the kind that Republican and Democratic lawmakers and presidential candidates begged Trump to follow just five months ago — is now just "a recipe for staying in Afghanistan forever."

With zero irony, earlier Tuesday Austin announced at NATO that the United States was reversing Trump’s decision to pull troops from Germany and adding 500 more, to boot. The fact that the Biden administration is putting more troops into Germany while taking them out of Afghanistan is a tell that this decision may be less about what is required to fight and more about the image of the fight. At least Donald Trump was consistent in his stated desire to pull U.S. troops from overpriced, outdated, and unnecessary — in his view — stations like Iraq, Syria, and Afghanistan, but also from Germany, Korea, and Japan.

The truth is, America’s and its allies’ security interests in those locations have evolved since the wars that put them there. But for some reason, few are calling for the total removal of U.S. forces from any stations other than Afghanistan and Iraq, where active threats and plots continue. 

Those who fought the “forever war” campaign will claim they won, today. It’s unclear if those fighting the neverending counterterrorism campaign will get to say the same. Time will tell if Biden’s plan is good policy or just bad politics. 

X
This website uses cookies to enhance user experience and to analyze performance and traffic on our website. We also share information about your use of our site with our social media, advertising and analytics partners. Learn More / Do Not Sell My Personal Information
Accept Cookies
X
Cookie Preferences Cookie List

Do Not Sell My Personal Information

When you visit our website, we store cookies on your browser to collect information. The information collected might relate to you, your preferences or your device, and is mostly used to make the site work as you expect it to and to provide a more personalized web experience. However, you can choose not to allow certain types of cookies, which may impact your experience of the site and the services we are able to offer. Click on the different category headings to find out more and change our default settings according to your preference. You cannot opt-out of our First Party Strictly Necessary Cookies as they are deployed in order to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting the cookie banner and remembering your settings, to log into your account, to redirect you when you log out, etc.). For more information about the First and Third Party Cookies used please follow this link.

Allow All Cookies

Manage Consent Preferences

Strictly Necessary Cookies - Always Active

We do not allow you to opt-out of our certain cookies, as they are necessary to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting our cookie banner and remembering your privacy choices) and/or to monitor site performance. These cookies are not used in a way that constitutes a “sale” of your data under the CCPA. You can set your browser to block or alert you about these cookies, but some parts of the site will not work as intended if you do so. You can usually find these settings in the Options or Preferences menu of your browser. Visit www.allaboutcookies.org to learn more.

Sale of Personal Data, Targeting & Social Media Cookies

Under the California Consumer Privacy Act, you have the right to opt-out of the sale of your personal information to third parties. These cookies collect information for analytics and to personalize your experience with targeted ads. You may exercise your right to opt out of the sale of personal information by using this toggle switch. If you opt out we will not be able to offer you personalised ads and will not hand over your personal information to any third parties. Additionally, you may contact our legal department for further clarification about your rights as a California consumer by using this Exercise My Rights link

If you have enabled privacy controls on your browser (such as a plugin), we have to take that as a valid request to opt-out. Therefore we would not be able to track your activity through the web. This may affect our ability to personalize ads according to your preferences.

Targeting cookies may be set through our site by our advertising partners. They may be used by those companies to build a profile of your interests and show you relevant adverts on other sites. They do not store directly personal information, but are based on uniquely identifying your browser and internet device. If you do not allow these cookies, you will experience less targeted advertising.

Social media cookies are set by a range of social media services that we have added to the site to enable you to share our content with your friends and networks. They are capable of tracking your browser across other sites and building up a profile of your interests. This may impact the content and messages you see on other websites you visit. If you do not allow these cookies you may not be able to use or see these sharing tools.

If you want to opt out of all of our lead reports and lists, please submit a privacy request at our Do Not Sell page.

Save Settings
Cookie Preferences Cookie List

Cookie List

A cookie is a small piece of data (text file) that a website – when visited by a user – asks your browser to store on your device in order to remember information about you, such as your language preference or login information. Those cookies are set by us and called first-party cookies. We also use third-party cookies – which are cookies from a domain different than the domain of the website you are visiting – for our advertising and marketing efforts. More specifically, we use cookies and other tracking technologies for the following purposes:

Strictly Necessary Cookies

We do not allow you to opt-out of our certain cookies, as they are necessary to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting our cookie banner and remembering your privacy choices) and/or to monitor site performance. These cookies are not used in a way that constitutes a “sale” of your data under the CCPA. You can set your browser to block or alert you about these cookies, but some parts of the site will not work as intended if you do so. You can usually find these settings in the Options or Preferences menu of your browser. Visit www.allaboutcookies.org to learn more.

Functional Cookies

We do not allow you to opt-out of our certain cookies, as they are necessary to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting our cookie banner and remembering your privacy choices) and/or to monitor site performance. These cookies are not used in a way that constitutes a “sale” of your data under the CCPA. You can set your browser to block or alert you about these cookies, but some parts of the site will not work as intended if you do so. You can usually find these settings in the Options or Preferences menu of your browser. Visit www.allaboutcookies.org to learn more.

Performance Cookies

We do not allow you to opt-out of our certain cookies, as they are necessary to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting our cookie banner and remembering your privacy choices) and/or to monitor site performance. These cookies are not used in a way that constitutes a “sale” of your data under the CCPA. You can set your browser to block or alert you about these cookies, but some parts of the site will not work as intended if you do so. You can usually find these settings in the Options or Preferences menu of your browser. Visit www.allaboutcookies.org to learn more.

Sale of Personal Data

We also use cookies to personalize your experience on our websites, including by determining the most relevant content and advertisements to show you, and to monitor site traffic and performance, so that we may improve our websites and your experience. You may opt out of our use of such cookies (and the associated “sale” of your Personal Information) by using this toggle switch. You will still see some advertising, regardless of your selection. Because we do not track you across different devices, browsers and GEMG properties, your selection will take effect only on this browser, this device and this website.

Social Media Cookies

We also use cookies to personalize your experience on our websites, including by determining the most relevant content and advertisements to show you, and to monitor site traffic and performance, so that we may improve our websites and your experience. You may opt out of our use of such cookies (and the associated “sale” of your Personal Information) by using this toggle switch. You will still see some advertising, regardless of your selection. Because we do not track you across different devices, browsers and GEMG properties, your selection will take effect only on this browser, this device and this website.

Targeting Cookies

We also use cookies to personalize your experience on our websites, including by determining the most relevant content and advertisements to show you, and to monitor site traffic and performance, so that we may improve our websites and your experience. You may opt out of our use of such cookies (and the associated “sale” of your Personal Information) by using this toggle switch. You will still see some advertising, regardless of your selection. Because we do not track you across different devices, browsers and GEMG properties, your selection will take effect only on this browser, this device and this website.