The D Brief: Death toll, oil prices rise; Ukraine to send anti-drone help; WH calls industry meeting; Claude at war; And a bit more.
US-Israeli war on Iran, day 6: The war’s death toll has risen to at least 1,230 Iranians after more 3,600 U.S. and Israeli military strikes across the country since Saturday. In response, officials in Tehran say they’ve targeted 27 military bases hosting U.S. troops throughout the region. Nearly all of those missile and drone attacks have been intercepted by American, Israeli or allied defense systems.
Iran’s retaliatory strikes have targeted the United Arab Emirates more than any other country, accounting for 1,138 of Tehran’s 2,171 drone and missile attacks, according to the Institute for the Study of War. Iran has also targeted Israel, Bahrain, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Cyprus and Azerbaijan in the latest of these developments on Thursday.
Israel is also targeting alleged Iran-backed militants in Lebanon, killing at least 77 people and wounding more than 520 since Saturday, al-Jazeera reports.
Update: U.S. defense officials identified the fifth and sixth American soldiers killed in the Iran war over the weekend.
- Maj. Jeffrey R. O’Brien, 45, of Indianola, Iowa; and
- Chief Warrant Officer 3 Robert M. Marzan, 54, of Sacramento, Calif.
Both were present at a makeshift facility in Port Shuaiba, Kuwait, when it was attacked by an Iranian drone on Sunday. Like the four soldiers identified on Tuesday, they were assigned to the 103rd Sustainment Command, based in Des Moines, Iowa. Officials noted Marzan “was at the scene of the incident…and is believed to be the individual who perished at the scene.” Relatedly, “Positive identification of Chief Warrant Officer 3 Marzan will be completed by the medical examiner,” the Defense Department said in a statement Wednesday evening.
Global oil prices continue to rise on Thursday, with the New York Times reporting a 15% increase since the war started, and Reuters reporting “Around 300 oil tankers remained inside the Strait of Hormuz” while the conflict continues.
Alert: Iranian drones could disrupt Hormuz traffic for “months,” even if Tehran’s missile-launching capabilities are degraded by U.S. and Israeli strikes, the wire service reported separately Wednesday. A container ship was attacked by an apparent naval drone while attempting to transit Hormuz Wednesday, forcing the crew to abandon ship, according to British maritime authorities (PDF). That’s at least the second suspected naval drone attack on Hormuz vessels since Saturday. Iran’s navy says it has targeted at least 10 ships and oil tankers in the strait since the war began, according to ISW; Reuters reports it’s tracking only nine vessels attacked so far.
Developing: “Crude oil supplies from Iraq and Kuwait could start shutting within days if the Strait remains closed, potentially cutting 3.3 million barrels per day (bpd) by day eight of the conflict,” Reuters reported Thursday, citing a note from analysts at JP Morgan.
Watch Hormuz shipping traffic dry up in this data animation from the Wall Street Journal, which also has an explainer about the strait’s importance to the global economy.
And Danish shipping giant Maersk suspended operations in the region on Wednesday, including from ports at the UAE, Oman, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, and Saudi Arabia.
Coverage continues below…
Welcome to this Thursday edition of The D Brief, a newsletter focused on developments affecting the future of U.S. national security, brought to you by Ben Watson with Bradley Peniston. It’s more important than ever to stay informed, so we’d like to take a moment to thank you for reading. Share your tips and feedback here. And if you’re not already subscribed, you can do that here. On this day in 1933, the Nazi party ascended to power with a 43.9% vote at the Reichstag elections, setting the stage for them to establish a dictatorship under Adolf Hitler.
Ukraine will send experts to Middle East countries to help fight off Iranian drones, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Wednesday on Telegram. At least five governments have requested advice and assistance from the world’s acknowledged expert on downing Shahed attack drones: Bahrain, Jordan, Kuwait, Qatar, and UAE. “I instructed the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine, together with intelligence, the Minister of Defense, our military command, the Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council, to present support options for the respective states and provide assistance in such a way that it does not weaken our own defenses here in Ukraine. Our military has the necessary capabilities. Ukrainian experts will work on the spot, and the teams are already agreeing on this.” (h/t The Counteroffensive with Tim Mak, whose independent reporting in Ukraine is worth supporting.)
Related reading: “Trump’s lightbulb moment: America needs Europe after all,” Politico reported Thursday.
New: The Iran war is costing U.S. taxpayers an estimated $1 billion every day, a congressional official told Nancy Youssef of The Atlantic, the same day NBC News reported 4 in 10 Americans support the war—while more than 5 in 10 oppose it. (See also, “Fox News poll: Majority says Trump’s handling of Iran has made US less safe,” The Hill reported Thursday.)
Economic pains could grow: “Rising energy prices, snarled supply chains and higher government debt could all hurt American consumers,” the New York Times reported Thursday.
One possible note of optimism: “If there is a cease-fire in the next week, trade flows could get back to normal fairly quickly.” However, “Even if the fighting stops, oil prices will remain elevated through the rest of the year, Goldman Sachs estimates, and if the strait remains closed for weeks, they could reach $100 a barrel.”
Another wrinkle: “Inflation is expected to rise, decreasing the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in the coming months,” the Times reports.
Also taking a hit: The supply of fertilizer, which threatens not just U.S. farmers, but the entire global agricultural cycle, historian Adam Tooze explained Wednesday.
Related reading:
- “Defense Industry Expects $50 Billion Package to Boost Munitions,” Bloomberg reported on Wednesday, adding that that could change as Iran bills come in;
- “Defense executives plan to meet at White House as strikes on Iran diminish stockpiles,” Reuters reports ahead of a planned Friday meeting;
- “Commentary: The US built up its missile defenses, and will need to do it again,” writes Frank Rose, who as a Hill staffer and later a State and Defense official, helped build them up.
A measure to limit Trump’s war powers on Iran failed in the Senate Wednesday in a 53-47 vote. Kentucky’s Rand Paul was the only Republican to join Democrats in support of the measure, while Susan Collins of Maine and Alaska's Lisa Murkowski voted against it. The Hill has more.
Trump officials who briefed lawmakers Tuesday night failed to answer two key questions about the war so far, Rep. Joe Courtney, D-Conn., said in a statement Wednesday.
- “What imminent threat did Iran pose to the people and homeland of the United States on February 28 to justify a military strike without a Congressional Declaration of War or authorization of use of military force?”
- “What is the clear end game for this operation?”
“Given the fact that six servicemembers have lost their lives and that we have tens of thousands of servicemembers in the region in harm’s way, getting coherent answers to these questions is a matter of life and death,” said Courtney, who serves on the Senate Armed Services Committee.
Trump: “If we didn’t hit within two weeks, they would’ve had a nuclear weapon,” the president claimed Wednesday at the White House. “When crazy people have nuclear weapons bad things happen,” he said.
- Reminder: Nearly 14 years ago, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu claimed Iran was 90% on its way to having enough material to make a nuclear bomb. He famously brought a cartoon to the United Nations to make this point for the cameras on Sept. 27, 2012.
But as recently as June 21, Trump himself claimed, “Iran’s key nuclear enrichment facilities have been completely and totally obliterated.” Four days later, the White House shared remarks from four other top officials who agreed—including SecDef Hegseth, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Steve Witkoff and Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard—and each used the word “obliterated” to describe the damage to Iran’s nuclear facilities.
Analysis: “Trump’s willingness to single-handedly drag the country into conflict reflects his approach to executive authority more broadly: He takes already extreme conceptions of expansive presidential power and stretches them even further, remaking the presidency into something more like the monarchies reviled by America’s Founders,” Quinta Jurecic wrote Thursday for The Atlantic.
Second opinion: “The president has unilaterally kicked off a regional war,” said former State Department counsel Brian Finucane, now a senior adviser at the International Crisis Group. “That is a real departure from prior unilateral uses of military force in recent decades.”
Jurecic concludes with this reminder: “Democracy allows people the freedom to make stupid decisions, so long as they make them collectively. But a system that allows a country to be dragged into war at the whims of a single person is not much of a democracy at all.”
Also worth noting: By assassinating Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on Saturday, Trump “shatter[ed] a precedent that had been sustained for decades by a mix of moral, political, and logistical concerns,” Tim Naftali of Columbia’s School of International and Public Affairs wrote Tuesday in The Atlantic.
“This is an enormously consequential shift in the foreign-policy tools available to a president,” Naftali warns. “Killing anyone, let alone a dangerous foreign leader, without a trial involves a moral choice…A regime isn’t a chicken; decapitating it doesn’t necessarily bring about its death after a short dance. Indeed, in the modern age, no police state has died by assassination alone.”
Mixed reality: The White House on Wednesday posted a video that mixes “Call of Duty” videogame footage with real-world strikes inside Iran. Critics called it “warporn.”
And lastly: For its ongoing Iran war, the Pentagon is using Anthropic’s AI tool Claude that Hegseth banned last week, the Washington Post reported Wednesday. Claude is part of the Maven Smart System, “which is built by data mining company Palantir” and combines information from “satellites, surveillance and other intelligence, helping provide real-time targeting and target prioritization to military operations in Iran.”
U.S. “Military commanders have become so dependent on the AI system that if [Anthropic’s CEO] directed the military to cease, the Trump administration would use government powers to retain the technology until it can be replaced,” a source told WaPo. Read more, here.