Troops with the People's Liberation Army Ground Force attend a drill on January 2021 in China's Yunnan Province.

Troops with the People's Liberation Army Ground Force attend a drill on January 2021 in China's Yunnan Province. Zhang Zhengju/VCG via Getty Images

Introducing ‘The China Intelligence’

Everyone needs to understand China better. Open-source intelligence can help.

Welcome to The China Intelligence, an occasional series by P.W. Singer at New America, a think tank based in Washington, D.C.; and Bluepath Labs, a strategic analysis and technology consulting firm that regularly publishes analysis of China based on open sources.

In just one generation, China has transformed itself from a largely agrarian country into a manufacturing and trading powerhouse — with a matching boom in military and technology power. And the consequences have been world-changing.

A mere decade ago, the budget of the People’s Liberation Army, or PLA, was roughly $35 billion. Today, it is around $250 billion. China’s military now boasts capable long-range ballistic missiles, 5th-generation fighter aircraft, aircraft carriers, and the largest surface combatants in the world. Its forces are increasingly active in not just the Pacific but also carrying out operations far beyond. Its arms and equipment are the products of China’s defense industry, whose rise and global impact mirrors those of the country’s larger economy. Once reliant on imports for high-end capabilities, China is now in the top global tier of research, design, and production in fields that range from established areas like rocketry, shipbuilding, and aviation, to some of the most cutting-edge areas like robotics, AI, quantum, and hypersonic flight. This shift has also upended the global arms trade. China’s arms trade shows now preview not just what will equip the PLA next, but what will also show up next in the battlefields of the developing world.

This incredible shift is at the heart of monumental changes in global stability, as well as a bipartisan recentering of U.S. national security and technology strategy around great power competition and maybe even conflict with China. Even that creates a new challenge, however; as Defense One editor Kevin Baron notes, ”Just Say China” is rapidly becoming a way to justify almost any policy, on any topic.

And yet a fuller understanding of the new China and its new technologies is noticeably lacking in both popular media and the mainstream security studies community. While there is a literal library of journals and blogs that explore the latest in U.S. military R&D, which come in both highly specialized and broader readership form, the amount of attention paid to and understanding of the planet’s other great military and tech power pales by comparison. This is illustrated by raw metrics — an order-of-magnitude difference in the number of articles and web hits on the two topics — and exemplified by how few people know the Chinese companies and tech that will shape the future. During the Cold War, knowledge of Soviet tech was far more widespread. You don’t have to be a Russian military specialist to have heard of a MiG fighter jet or the Soyuz spacecraft. Yet small percentages of not just the general public, but also the security studies community and the U.S. military can name their present-day Chinese equivalents. (The answer: Shenyang and Chang Zheng.)

So what can we do about this, especially when China remains a closed society, an authoritarian state with one of the most advanced surveillance programs in history? Part of the answer lies in what is known as “open source intelligence” or OSINT: gathering and analyzing information that lies in the public. 

To be sure, there are challenges. Much information of value is censored and what does make its way out of China is sometimes modified. An example is the blurring of even government-released images. 

Yet much of value makes its way through this net. Some information is deliberately shared by the regime, in a bid to spread ideas beyond its top leadership in a non-classified setting. Examples range from official party documents on tech policy to military journal articles on robot warfare doctrine. Other messaging might aim to highlight indigenous developments and publicize defense capabilities, to create pride in their domestic audience or to deter external foes. There are also reasons of career advancement. Chinese scientists, as a professional requirement, habitually publish their research in fields that range from hypersonic engines to missile guidance. And, finally, there are economic reasons. If they want to make the sale, Chinese companies competing for contracts have to show off their wares at open settings like arms expos

Then there is the undeliberate side. As discussed in this author’s book LikeWar, our new digital world means orders of magnitude more information is being produced and shared than ever before in human history. This information that leaks out from China comes in the form of everything from cell phone selfies that reveal OSINT details in the background to publicly available satellite imagery (such as via ESA, and Planet), which offer the ability to watch for strategic weapons testing or even track ships at sea. As Mister Universe said in the cult movie Serenity, even the most dedicated authoritarian regime “Can’t stop the signal...Everything goes somewhere.” 

The outcome is that anyone, anywhere can learn the kind of information that even the CIA would have been envious of just a few decades back. We’ve used this approach to explain developments in Chinese strategies and the people who formulate them to provide details on China’s newest nuclear missiles and where they are located

And the revelations are not just about military systems. Indeed, before COVID’s spread was fully understood by many, we detected that China’s military was not deploying to deal with a looming pandemic in the scale that was needed, as well as document the ways that China was censoring information about the pandemic, another indicator that it was to be worse than thought. We later tracked China’s early efforts to spin the narrative and blame other countries for the outbreak. 

Whatever the form or topic, the information gets out and then someone sees it. These OSINT trackers range from trained intelligence analysts to the volunteer online “military fan” (军迷) community that regularly surfaces and debates the latest PLA tidbit or data trail. 

However, this points to another part of the problem. Too little of this wealth of information makes its way outside the specialist community. One issue is that it is primarily in Chinese language. But it is also about the channels of communication. Much of it stays in social media chatter, in the back and forth of those specialists and fans on Twitter. Of what does get published, it typically moves either through the blogs and thinktank sites that are phenomenal but tend only to reach their already dedicated audience. Occasionally, there will be an article that pops out every so often into the mainstream. Yet, there is no consistent outlet for this kind of reporting at a general media hub. And finally, not enough of the information that does get surfaced is put into context. The need is not just to let people know about some important new development, but also explain what it means. 

The bottom line is that a huge part of the latest and greatest in Chinese military and technology news lies in the public domain. One simply has to collect it, make sense of it, and share it. 

And that is what we’re going to do.

X
This website uses cookies to enhance user experience and to analyze performance and traffic on our website. We also share information about your use of our site with our social media, advertising and analytics partners. Learn More / Do Not Sell My Personal Information
Accept Cookies
X
Cookie Preferences Cookie List

Do Not Sell My Personal Information

When you visit our website, we store cookies on your browser to collect information. The information collected might relate to you, your preferences or your device, and is mostly used to make the site work as you expect it to and to provide a more personalized web experience. However, you can choose not to allow certain types of cookies, which may impact your experience of the site and the services we are able to offer. Click on the different category headings to find out more and change our default settings according to your preference. You cannot opt-out of our First Party Strictly Necessary Cookies as they are deployed in order to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting the cookie banner and remembering your settings, to log into your account, to redirect you when you log out, etc.). For more information about the First and Third Party Cookies used please follow this link.

Allow All Cookies

Manage Consent Preferences

Strictly Necessary Cookies - Always Active

We do not allow you to opt-out of our certain cookies, as they are necessary to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting our cookie banner and remembering your privacy choices) and/or to monitor site performance. These cookies are not used in a way that constitutes a “sale” of your data under the CCPA. You can set your browser to block or alert you about these cookies, but some parts of the site will not work as intended if you do so. You can usually find these settings in the Options or Preferences menu of your browser. Visit www.allaboutcookies.org to learn more.

Sale of Personal Data, Targeting & Social Media Cookies

Under the California Consumer Privacy Act, you have the right to opt-out of the sale of your personal information to third parties. These cookies collect information for analytics and to personalize your experience with targeted ads. You may exercise your right to opt out of the sale of personal information by using this toggle switch. If you opt out we will not be able to offer you personalised ads and will not hand over your personal information to any third parties. Additionally, you may contact our legal department for further clarification about your rights as a California consumer by using this Exercise My Rights link

If you have enabled privacy controls on your browser (such as a plugin), we have to take that as a valid request to opt-out. Therefore we would not be able to track your activity through the web. This may affect our ability to personalize ads according to your preferences.

Targeting cookies may be set through our site by our advertising partners. They may be used by those companies to build a profile of your interests and show you relevant adverts on other sites. They do not store directly personal information, but are based on uniquely identifying your browser and internet device. If you do not allow these cookies, you will experience less targeted advertising.

Social media cookies are set by a range of social media services that we have added to the site to enable you to share our content with your friends and networks. They are capable of tracking your browser across other sites and building up a profile of your interests. This may impact the content and messages you see on other websites you visit. If you do not allow these cookies you may not be able to use or see these sharing tools.

If you want to opt out of all of our lead reports and lists, please submit a privacy request at our Do Not Sell page.

Save Settings
Cookie Preferences Cookie List

Cookie List

A cookie is a small piece of data (text file) that a website – when visited by a user – asks your browser to store on your device in order to remember information about you, such as your language preference or login information. Those cookies are set by us and called first-party cookies. We also use third-party cookies – which are cookies from a domain different than the domain of the website you are visiting – for our advertising and marketing efforts. More specifically, we use cookies and other tracking technologies for the following purposes:

Strictly Necessary Cookies

We do not allow you to opt-out of our certain cookies, as they are necessary to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting our cookie banner and remembering your privacy choices) and/or to monitor site performance. These cookies are not used in a way that constitutes a “sale” of your data under the CCPA. You can set your browser to block or alert you about these cookies, but some parts of the site will not work as intended if you do so. You can usually find these settings in the Options or Preferences menu of your browser. Visit www.allaboutcookies.org to learn more.

Functional Cookies

We do not allow you to opt-out of our certain cookies, as they are necessary to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting our cookie banner and remembering your privacy choices) and/or to monitor site performance. These cookies are not used in a way that constitutes a “sale” of your data under the CCPA. You can set your browser to block or alert you about these cookies, but some parts of the site will not work as intended if you do so. You can usually find these settings in the Options or Preferences menu of your browser. Visit www.allaboutcookies.org to learn more.

Performance Cookies

We do not allow you to opt-out of our certain cookies, as they are necessary to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting our cookie banner and remembering your privacy choices) and/or to monitor site performance. These cookies are not used in a way that constitutes a “sale” of your data under the CCPA. You can set your browser to block or alert you about these cookies, but some parts of the site will not work as intended if you do so. You can usually find these settings in the Options or Preferences menu of your browser. Visit www.allaboutcookies.org to learn more.

Sale of Personal Data

We also use cookies to personalize your experience on our websites, including by determining the most relevant content and advertisements to show you, and to monitor site traffic and performance, so that we may improve our websites and your experience. You may opt out of our use of such cookies (and the associated “sale” of your Personal Information) by using this toggle switch. You will still see some advertising, regardless of your selection. Because we do not track you across different devices, browsers and GEMG properties, your selection will take effect only on this browser, this device and this website.

Social Media Cookies

We also use cookies to personalize your experience on our websites, including by determining the most relevant content and advertisements to show you, and to monitor site traffic and performance, so that we may improve our websites and your experience. You may opt out of our use of such cookies (and the associated “sale” of your Personal Information) by using this toggle switch. You will still see some advertising, regardless of your selection. Because we do not track you across different devices, browsers and GEMG properties, your selection will take effect only on this browser, this device and this website.

Targeting Cookies

We also use cookies to personalize your experience on our websites, including by determining the most relevant content and advertisements to show you, and to monitor site traffic and performance, so that we may improve our websites and your experience. You may opt out of our use of such cookies (and the associated “sale” of your Personal Information) by using this toggle switch. You will still see some advertising, regardless of your selection. Because we do not track you across different devices, browsers and GEMG properties, your selection will take effect only on this browser, this device and this website.