Today's D Brief: Biden in Poland; Putin saber rattling again; China's fine line; North Korea's ICBM; CODEL to Taiwan; And a bit more.

One day after America’s president visited Ukraine, Russia says it’s suspending its last nuclear arms control agreement with the United States. Moscow’s embattled autocratic leader Vladimir Putin confirmed the suspension in a nearly two-hour annual address that’s often delivered each December, but was delayed in late 2022 for unspecified reasons—and following months of battlefield setbacks for its invasion and occupying forces inside democratic Ukraine. 

The nuclear arms agreement is known as the New START Treaty, which was signed in 2010 and limits each nations’ long-range nuclear warheads and nuclear-capable missiles. According to Putin, “Russia is suspending its participation in New START—I repeat, not withdrawing from the treaty, no; but merely suspending its participation,” he said, according to state-run TASS. “There is no connection between the New START issue and, let’s say, the Ukrainian conflict and other hostile actions of the West against our country,” Putin told Russian lawmakers in his address Tuesday. 

He also said he put the country’s ground-based strategic (or nuclear) missiles “on combat duty” just last week. According to Putin, nations in the West “want to inflict a strategic defeat on us and want to get into our nuclear facilities…Do they really think we're easily going to let them in there just like that?” he said in some fairly typical tough-guy talk. 

President Joe Biden will meet with Polish President Andrzej Duda today in Warsaw. Later in the evening, which is about 11:30 a.m. ET, Biden plans to speak about “how the United States has rallied the world to support the people of Ukraine as they defend their freedom and democracy, and how we will continue to stand with the people of Ukraine for as long as it takes,” according to a brief preview from the White House. 

“What is at stake here is more than just the success and survival of the nation of Ukraine, but the rules-based international order, fundamental principles of sovereignty and territorial integrity, and the fundamental values of independence, democracy, freedom that matters so much to everyday American people,” Biden’s National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan told reporters Tuesday. 

Biden will meet with officials from the so-called Bucharest Nine on Wednesday. That, too, will happen in Poland; and it includes representatives from Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, and Slovakia; NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg will attend that meeting as well, alliance officials said. (Read more on Biden’s unannounced visit to Kyiv in our related links below.)

The U.S. announced $460 million in new military support to Ukraine, and another $10 million to help rebuild portions of the country’s missile-damaged energy infrastructure on Monday. The new batch, the 32nd drawdown since August 2021, consisted of new long-range HIMARS artillery rounds; 155 mm rounds; 120 mm mortars; claymore mines; Javelin anti-tank missiles; radars; Four Bradley Fire Support Team vehicles; and more

Conservative think tankers in Washington insist the U.S. send longer-range missiles to Ukraine. John Hardie, Bradley Bowman, and Ryan Brobst of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies made their case for the U.S. sending Army Tactical Missile System munitions to Kyiv in an op-ed published in Breaking Defense on Valentines Day. “These missiles would allow the Ukrainian military strike high-value targets deeper within occupied Ukrainian territory, helping to blunt Russia’s offensive and facilitate Ukraine’s own counteroffensive,” they argue, and dismiss the “risk of Russian retaliation [as] overstated.” 

New and especially concerning: The U.S. says China is considering sending weapons to Russia. Secretary of State Antony Blinken told NBC News on Sunday that Chinese officials “are strongly considering providing lethal assistance to Russia,” and added, “To the best of our knowledge, they haven’t crossed that line yet.”

“I made clear the importance of not crossing that line,” Blinken said, “and the fact that it would have serious consequences on our own relationship, something that we do not need on top of the balloon incident that China is engaged in.” 

Recall that Italian officials speculated just last week that China’s leader was planning a “peace speech” about Russia’s Ukraine invasion, Reuters reported Friday from Rome. Beijing’s top diplomat Wang Yi seemed to keep that narrative going on Monday when he said during a visit to Hungary, “We would like a political solution to provide a peaceful and sustainable framework to Europe.” Wang is in Russia today for talks with his counterpart in Moscow. CNN has a bit more on that visit, here; Reuters has more on China’s new foreign minister Qin Gang, who is indirectly messaging a bit of caution to Washington today, here

Elsewhere in Europe, the U.S. just finished teaching the first battalion of Ukrainians how to use the M2 Bradley Fighting Vehicle, Pentagon Press Secretary Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder said Friday. “Approximately 635 Ukrainians completed the approximately five-week period of instruction,” he said in a statement. That’s taking place at the Grafenwoehr Training Area in Germany. “Another mechanized battalion began training on the M2 Bradley two weeks ago, as did a field artillery battalion on the M109 Paladin, with both battalions combined consisting of approximately 710 Ukrainians,” Ryder said. 

This week, the U.S. will begin training Ukrainians on how to use the M1126 Stryker systems at Grafenwoehr. In his statement, Ryder called the work “a continuation of a world-wide effort led by the U.S. and supported by more than 50 nations to help Ukraine defend itself from Russia’s brutal and unprovoked war, which began nearly one year ago.”

New: The U.S. Army is expanding its industrial base production capacity for 155 mm artillery rounds. “General Dynamics Ordnance & Tactical Systems, Niceville, Florida, and American Ordnance LLC, Middletown, Iowa, will compete for each order of the $993,790,373 firm-fixed-price (with economic price adjustment) contract to produce 155 mm rounds, which includes delivery orders for un-definitized contract actions to increase load, assemble and pack capacity to produce an additional 12,000-20,000 rounds per month.”

“The M795 projectile is being used by Ukraine in defense of their nation as a key munition that provides a high explosive burst with blast effects fired from towed and self-propelled howitzers,” Army officials said.

Russia’s invasion seems to be so stalled that Putin’s warlords are now infighting. The latest developments involve Ramzan Kadyrov of Chechnya vowing to start his own private military contractor to compete with the Wagner Group, which has had to recruit convicts to fill its ranks as Russian military casualties mount. (h/t Sam Bendett of CNA.) 

And in case you missed it, the Washington think tank CSIS has a new report on the apparent North Korea-to-Russia arms flow, which also features oil and coal transit via the Tumangang-Khasan Railroad Crossing

Additional reading: 


From Defense One

France Pushes Collective European Air Defense // Kevin Baron: Emmanuel Macron offers to host a conference to meet Russia’s post-INF threat.

Welcome to this Tuesday edition of The D Brief, brought to you by Ben Watson with Jennifer Hlad. If you’re not already subscribed to this newsletter, you can do that here. On this day in 1945, the U.S. Navy's Bismarck Sea (CVE-95), the last American carrier to be sunk in combat in World War Two, went down in the waters near Iwo Jima after a swarm of "kamikaze" pilots attacked, triggering nearly three hours of explosions that eventually killed 318 sailors.


North Korea’s latest ICBM test this past weekend appears to have featured a missile that can potentially travel anywhere on Earth, according to Dutch astronomer Marco Langbroek, who analyzed the lofted trajectory Pyongyang used for its launch on Saturday, and shared a chart illustrating his point. Reuters reviewed the known-knowns from that Saturday test, here.
The White House condemned the launch, and called it “a flagrant violation of multiple UN Security Council resolutions” against North Korea’s nuclear program. “This launch needlessly raises tensions and risks destabilizing the security situation in the region,” said National Security Council spokeswoman Adrienne Watson in a statement. “The United States will take all necessary measures to ensure the security of the American homeland and Republic of Korea and Japanese allies,” she added.
One POV from Capitol Hill: “The recent North Korean ICBM test is a stark reminder that Kim Jong Un is an unstable dictator with a growing nuclear arsenal capable of ranging [or, reaching] the U.S. homeland,” said election denier Rep. Mike Rogers, Republican from Alabama and chairman of the House Armed Services Committee, in a statement over the weekend. “Protecting the U.S. homeland must be paramount as we develop our 2024 budget, and this includes fully-funding homeland missile defense assets,” he said—especially since this is the budget and posture hearing season in Washington. “What has to be done is clear,” he said; “We must accelerate our missile defense development to outpace the DPRK threat. This includes speeding up the Next Generation Interceptor, putting more interceptors in the ground, and looking to space-based missile defenses.”

Four U.S. lawmakers met with Taiwan’s leadership in Taipei on Tuesday, the latest American delegation to visit the island. That group included Reps. Ro Khanna, D-Calif., Tony Gonzales, R-Texas, Jake Auchincloss, D-Mass., and Jonathan Jackson, D-Ill. The Associated Press has a little more on that visit, here.
You may remember that Khanna recently told Defense One he believes there should be “consequences” when China passes the median line of the Taiwan Strait to threaten the island, you can read that Q&A, here

Coming soon: Hypersonic weapons on U.S. ships. The Navy has awarded Lockheed Martin a $1.1 billion contract to integrate hypersonic missiles onto Zumwalt destroyers. Lockheed will provide launcher systems, weapon control, all up rounds, and platform integration support under the terms of the contract, the company announced Friday. Lockheed, Northrop Grumman, and General Dynamics Mission Systems are “on track to provide the [conventional prompt strike] surface-launched, sea-based hypersonic strike capability to sailors by the mid-2020s,” according to Lockheed Martin. Defense News has a bit more, here

Lastly today: Navy Secretary Carlos Del Toro is scheduled to speak this afternoon at the National Press Club in Washington, D.C. That one starts at about 12:30 p.m. ET, and will be livestreamed on YouTube, here.

X
This website uses cookies to enhance user experience and to analyze performance and traffic on our website. We also share information about your use of our site with our social media, advertising and analytics partners. Learn More / Do Not Sell My Personal Information
Accept Cookies
X
Cookie Preferences Cookie List

Do Not Sell My Personal Information

When you visit our website, we store cookies on your browser to collect information. The information collected might relate to you, your preferences or your device, and is mostly used to make the site work as you expect it to and to provide a more personalized web experience. However, you can choose not to allow certain types of cookies, which may impact your experience of the site and the services we are able to offer. Click on the different category headings to find out more and change our default settings according to your preference. You cannot opt-out of our First Party Strictly Necessary Cookies as they are deployed in order to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting the cookie banner and remembering your settings, to log into your account, to redirect you when you log out, etc.). For more information about the First and Third Party Cookies used please follow this link.

Allow All Cookies

Manage Consent Preferences

Strictly Necessary Cookies - Always Active

We do not allow you to opt-out of our certain cookies, as they are necessary to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting our cookie banner and remembering your privacy choices) and/or to monitor site performance. These cookies are not used in a way that constitutes a “sale” of your data under the CCPA. You can set your browser to block or alert you about these cookies, but some parts of the site will not work as intended if you do so. You can usually find these settings in the Options or Preferences menu of your browser. Visit www.allaboutcookies.org to learn more.

Sale of Personal Data, Targeting & Social Media Cookies

Under the California Consumer Privacy Act, you have the right to opt-out of the sale of your personal information to third parties. These cookies collect information for analytics and to personalize your experience with targeted ads. You may exercise your right to opt out of the sale of personal information by using this toggle switch. If you opt out we will not be able to offer you personalised ads and will not hand over your personal information to any third parties. Additionally, you may contact our legal department for further clarification about your rights as a California consumer by using this Exercise My Rights link

If you have enabled privacy controls on your browser (such as a plugin), we have to take that as a valid request to opt-out. Therefore we would not be able to track your activity through the web. This may affect our ability to personalize ads according to your preferences.

Targeting cookies may be set through our site by our advertising partners. They may be used by those companies to build a profile of your interests and show you relevant adverts on other sites. They do not store directly personal information, but are based on uniquely identifying your browser and internet device. If you do not allow these cookies, you will experience less targeted advertising.

Social media cookies are set by a range of social media services that we have added to the site to enable you to share our content with your friends and networks. They are capable of tracking your browser across other sites and building up a profile of your interests. This may impact the content and messages you see on other websites you visit. If you do not allow these cookies you may not be able to use or see these sharing tools.

If you want to opt out of all of our lead reports and lists, please submit a privacy request at our Do Not Sell page.

Save Settings
Cookie Preferences Cookie List

Cookie List

A cookie is a small piece of data (text file) that a website – when visited by a user – asks your browser to store on your device in order to remember information about you, such as your language preference or login information. Those cookies are set by us and called first-party cookies. We also use third-party cookies – which are cookies from a domain different than the domain of the website you are visiting – for our advertising and marketing efforts. More specifically, we use cookies and other tracking technologies for the following purposes:

Strictly Necessary Cookies

We do not allow you to opt-out of our certain cookies, as they are necessary to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting our cookie banner and remembering your privacy choices) and/or to monitor site performance. These cookies are not used in a way that constitutes a “sale” of your data under the CCPA. You can set your browser to block or alert you about these cookies, but some parts of the site will not work as intended if you do so. You can usually find these settings in the Options or Preferences menu of your browser. Visit www.allaboutcookies.org to learn more.

Functional Cookies

We do not allow you to opt-out of our certain cookies, as they are necessary to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting our cookie banner and remembering your privacy choices) and/or to monitor site performance. These cookies are not used in a way that constitutes a “sale” of your data under the CCPA. You can set your browser to block or alert you about these cookies, but some parts of the site will not work as intended if you do so. You can usually find these settings in the Options or Preferences menu of your browser. Visit www.allaboutcookies.org to learn more.

Performance Cookies

We do not allow you to opt-out of our certain cookies, as they are necessary to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting our cookie banner and remembering your privacy choices) and/or to monitor site performance. These cookies are not used in a way that constitutes a “sale” of your data under the CCPA. You can set your browser to block or alert you about these cookies, but some parts of the site will not work as intended if you do so. You can usually find these settings in the Options or Preferences menu of your browser. Visit www.allaboutcookies.org to learn more.

Sale of Personal Data

We also use cookies to personalize your experience on our websites, including by determining the most relevant content and advertisements to show you, and to monitor site traffic and performance, so that we may improve our websites and your experience. You may opt out of our use of such cookies (and the associated “sale” of your Personal Information) by using this toggle switch. You will still see some advertising, regardless of your selection. Because we do not track you across different devices, browsers and GEMG properties, your selection will take effect only on this browser, this device and this website.

Social Media Cookies

We also use cookies to personalize your experience on our websites, including by determining the most relevant content and advertisements to show you, and to monitor site traffic and performance, so that we may improve our websites and your experience. You may opt out of our use of such cookies (and the associated “sale” of your Personal Information) by using this toggle switch. You will still see some advertising, regardless of your selection. Because we do not track you across different devices, browsers and GEMG properties, your selection will take effect only on this browser, this device and this website.

Targeting Cookies

We also use cookies to personalize your experience on our websites, including by determining the most relevant content and advertisements to show you, and to monitor site traffic and performance, so that we may improve our websites and your experience. You may opt out of our use of such cookies (and the associated “sale” of your Personal Information) by using this toggle switch. You will still see some advertising, regardless of your selection. Because we do not track you across different devices, browsers and GEMG properties, your selection will take effect only on this browser, this device and this website.