A U.S. Air Force B-1B Lancer assigned to the 9th Expeditionary Bomb Squadron, deployed from Dyess Air Force Base, Texas, arrives Feb. 6, 2017, at Andersen AFB, Guam.

A U.S. Air Force B-1B Lancer assigned to the 9th Expeditionary Bomb Squadron, deployed from Dyess Air Force Base, Texas, arrives Feb. 6, 2017, at Andersen AFB, Guam. U.S. Air Force / Tech. Sgt. Richard P. Ebensberger

DOD's 2021 Budget Would Trim Arsenal, Shift Funds To Arms Development

Some experts say the budget proposal assumes a worrying amount of near-term risk.

The Pentagon wants to retire warplanes, drones, and ships, including some less than two decades old, freeing up hundreds of billions of dollars to develop and buy new weapons that defense officials say are necessary to win a war against China and Russia.

With a presidential election looming later this year, the moves laid out in the Defense Department’s fiscal 2021 budget proposal sent to Congress on Monday could be the Trump administration’s final chance to reshape the U.S. military for decades to come.

“[W]e are moving in the direction that we need to go after looking at our last few years doing land wars and now looking forward to a higher-end fight against an adversary that will have a higher capability,” Vice Adm. Ronald Boxall, the Joint Staff director of force structure, resources and assessment, said during a Monday briefing at the Pentagon.

After three straight years of increases, the Trump administration’s fiscal 2021 defense budget request totals $740.5 billion — in line with a two-year budget deal struck by Congress and the White House last year. The Pentagon portion of the budget is $705.4 billion, down 1.1% from last year’s $713 billion budget, while the remaining $35 billion is for national security projects overseen by the Energy Department and other government agencies.

Top Pentagon officials said the budget proposal would fund “irreversible implementation of the National Defense Strategy,” the document produced under former Defense Secretary Jim Mattis that predicts an era of “great power competition” with China and Russia. That echoes a Jan. 6 memo to the Pentagon from Defense Secretary Mark Esper, who called for “ruthless prioritization” in order to “achieve full, irreversible implementation” of the 2018 strategy.

The Trump administration’s first two defense budgets spent heavily on readiness, and particularly on training and maintenance for forces. Now it’s spending to develop a new generation of weapons: $107 billion in the 2021 proposal. But procurement itself would drop to $137 billion from $144 billion.

“The broader question for all of the services, as force structure plans contract, is the political perception,” said Mark Cancian, a former Office of Management and Budget official who is now a senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “The budget has been going up, but now the forces are getting smaller, and what are we really getting for our money.”

If DOD’s plan is approved by Congress, the Air Force alone would retire hundreds of warplanes over the next five years — including B-1 bombers; A-10 attack planes; F-15 and F-16 fighter jets; C-130H cargo planes; KC-10 and KC-135 aerial tankers; and high-flying Global Hawk spy drones. 

Yet these cuts would only trim the various fleets, reducing capability and increasing strain on the remaining aircraft without eliminating entire supply chains, training requirements, and the like. 

“I view it as hedging — that they’re afraid to let go of things completely,” said Todd Harrison, who directs defense budget analysis and the Aerospace Security Project at CSIS. “They’re shooting themselves in the foot because they’re guaranteeing that they’re going to have a smaller force structure in the future by making partial fleet reductions now. If you retire whole fleets, you get way more in savings, then you can buy a larger fleet in the future.”

Lawmakers have repeatedly rejected the Air Force’s calls to get rid of planes, like the A-10 Warthog.

Meanwhile, the Navy wants to retire four littoral combat ships — lightly armed warships built for operating in shallow water. The four ships on the chopping block — the oldest littoral combat ships — are part of a Navy test squadron in San Diego.

The Army plans to cancel 41 programs and cut or delay another 39, though officials would not immediately specify which ones. Officials said these moves would free up $13.5 billion between fiscal 2021 and 2025.

The Pentagon strategy of reducing weapons buys and retiring equipment creates near-term risk in the coming years until those new weapons arrive and become battle-ready at the latter part of the decade.

"The Air Force is now in a position of assuming increased risk in the 2020s as it seeks to rebalance for peer conflict, which it has to do,” said Doug Birkey, executive director for the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies. “However, it is still stuck dealing with lower-tier groups like ISIS, which wears the legacy force thin. This risks wearing out remaining aircraft faster than new iron can be acquired—from both a production and budgetary standpoint.”

The Pentagon plans to put the money it saves the retirements into new weapons, including fast-flying hypersonic weapons; artificial intelligence and hundreds of new, small satellites. 

The 2021 budget requests seeks $29 billion for nuclear weapons, up 18 percent increase from the enacted 2020 amount. The money would go toward new intercontinental ballistic missiles, B-21 stealth bombers, Columbia-class ballistic missile submarines, and a new computer network to transmit launch codes from the president to the launch crews.

The Air Force has been moving quickly, particularly on its ICBMs, in part to make controversial nuclear-weapons projects more difficult to cancel even if Trump is not re-elected.

“[T]hey are speeding toward trying to get the next milestone and…actually get things awarded on contract as quickly as possible so that becomes harder to reverse if there’s a new administration,” Harrison said.

The Pentagon also wants $18 billion for new satellites, spacecraft and standing up the U.S. Space Force, the new branch of the military within the U.S. Air Force.

The Navy plans to buy eight warships, down from the 12 funded in the fiscal 2020 budget, which Pentagon officials last year billed as the ““the largest ship construction budget request” in 20 years as it tries to meet President Trump’s calls for 355 warships.

“We have a balanced force focused on long-term competition through increased investments in lethality and modernization,” a senior defense official said of the 2021 request.

The decrease in shipbuilding was not received well by Rep. Joe Courtney, D-Conn., chairman of the House Armed Services seapower and projection forces subcommittee.

“The President’s shipbuilding budget is not a 355-ship Navy budget,” Courtney said in a statement. “This weak, pathetic request for eight ships – of which two are tugboats – is not only fewer ships than 2020, but fewer ships than the Navy told us last year it planned for 2021.”

A senior defense official noted that the five year spending projections are “not really keeping pace with inflation.” Defense Secretary Mark Esper and other defense officials have said the Pentagon needs 3 to 5 percent annual increases to its budget to properly fund the priorities of its National Defense Strategy.  

While the Defense Department did not release its five-year spending projections, a senior defense official laid out its internal planning figures, for the Pentagon’s share of the defense budget.

  • FY21: $705 billion (Down 1.1 percent from $713 billion in fiscal 2020)
  • FY22: $722 billion (Up 2.4 percent)
  • FY23: $737 billion (Up 2.1 percent)
  • FY24: $753 billion (Up 2.2 percent)
  • FY25: $768 billion (Up 2 percent)

“We need stable, predictable, adequate and most importantly, timely budgets,” a second senior defense official said. “Those are the things we need to make sure that we can sustain the force.” 

Even if Trump wins a second term, experts do not foresee the types of defense spending increases that Pentagon officials say they need.

Trump “has given the Department of Defense a plus-up, but now he’s going to do what Ronald Reagan did, which is in the last two years or three years of his eight years in office, he will start decreasing defense expenditures in order to start doing other things like balancing the budget,” John Venable, a retired Air Force colonel who is now a military analyst with the Heritage Foundation.

“Even if the current president is reelected, the military is going to see a decreasing topline,” Venable said. “If he is not re-elected and a Democrat comes into place, the budget will definitely take a hit.”

X
This website uses cookies to enhance user experience and to analyze performance and traffic on our website. We also share information about your use of our site with our social media, advertising and analytics partners. Learn More / Do Not Sell My Personal Information
Accept Cookies
X
Cookie Preferences Cookie List

Do Not Sell My Personal Information

When you visit our website, we store cookies on your browser to collect information. The information collected might relate to you, your preferences or your device, and is mostly used to make the site work as you expect it to and to provide a more personalized web experience. However, you can choose not to allow certain types of cookies, which may impact your experience of the site and the services we are able to offer. Click on the different category headings to find out more and change our default settings according to your preference. You cannot opt-out of our First Party Strictly Necessary Cookies as they are deployed in order to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting the cookie banner and remembering your settings, to log into your account, to redirect you when you log out, etc.). For more information about the First and Third Party Cookies used please follow this link.

Allow All Cookies

Manage Consent Preferences

Strictly Necessary Cookies - Always Active

We do not allow you to opt-out of our certain cookies, as they are necessary to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting our cookie banner and remembering your privacy choices) and/or to monitor site performance. These cookies are not used in a way that constitutes a “sale” of your data under the CCPA. You can set your browser to block or alert you about these cookies, but some parts of the site will not work as intended if you do so. You can usually find these settings in the Options or Preferences menu of your browser. Visit www.allaboutcookies.org to learn more.

Sale of Personal Data, Targeting & Social Media Cookies

Under the California Consumer Privacy Act, you have the right to opt-out of the sale of your personal information to third parties. These cookies collect information for analytics and to personalize your experience with targeted ads. You may exercise your right to opt out of the sale of personal information by using this toggle switch. If you opt out we will not be able to offer you personalised ads and will not hand over your personal information to any third parties. Additionally, you may contact our legal department for further clarification about your rights as a California consumer by using this Exercise My Rights link

If you have enabled privacy controls on your browser (such as a plugin), we have to take that as a valid request to opt-out. Therefore we would not be able to track your activity through the web. This may affect our ability to personalize ads according to your preferences.

Targeting cookies may be set through our site by our advertising partners. They may be used by those companies to build a profile of your interests and show you relevant adverts on other sites. They do not store directly personal information, but are based on uniquely identifying your browser and internet device. If you do not allow these cookies, you will experience less targeted advertising.

Social media cookies are set by a range of social media services that we have added to the site to enable you to share our content with your friends and networks. They are capable of tracking your browser across other sites and building up a profile of your interests. This may impact the content and messages you see on other websites you visit. If you do not allow these cookies you may not be able to use or see these sharing tools.

If you want to opt out of all of our lead reports and lists, please submit a privacy request at our Do Not Sell page.

Save Settings
Cookie Preferences Cookie List

Cookie List

A cookie is a small piece of data (text file) that a website – when visited by a user – asks your browser to store on your device in order to remember information about you, such as your language preference or login information. Those cookies are set by us and called first-party cookies. We also use third-party cookies – which are cookies from a domain different than the domain of the website you are visiting – for our advertising and marketing efforts. More specifically, we use cookies and other tracking technologies for the following purposes:

Strictly Necessary Cookies

We do not allow you to opt-out of our certain cookies, as they are necessary to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting our cookie banner and remembering your privacy choices) and/or to monitor site performance. These cookies are not used in a way that constitutes a “sale” of your data under the CCPA. You can set your browser to block or alert you about these cookies, but some parts of the site will not work as intended if you do so. You can usually find these settings in the Options or Preferences menu of your browser. Visit www.allaboutcookies.org to learn more.

Functional Cookies

We do not allow you to opt-out of our certain cookies, as they are necessary to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting our cookie banner and remembering your privacy choices) and/or to monitor site performance. These cookies are not used in a way that constitutes a “sale” of your data under the CCPA. You can set your browser to block or alert you about these cookies, but some parts of the site will not work as intended if you do so. You can usually find these settings in the Options or Preferences menu of your browser. Visit www.allaboutcookies.org to learn more.

Performance Cookies

We do not allow you to opt-out of our certain cookies, as they are necessary to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting our cookie banner and remembering your privacy choices) and/or to monitor site performance. These cookies are not used in a way that constitutes a “sale” of your data under the CCPA. You can set your browser to block or alert you about these cookies, but some parts of the site will not work as intended if you do so. You can usually find these settings in the Options or Preferences menu of your browser. Visit www.allaboutcookies.org to learn more.

Sale of Personal Data

We also use cookies to personalize your experience on our websites, including by determining the most relevant content and advertisements to show you, and to monitor site traffic and performance, so that we may improve our websites and your experience. You may opt out of our use of such cookies (and the associated “sale” of your Personal Information) by using this toggle switch. You will still see some advertising, regardless of your selection. Because we do not track you across different devices, browsers and GEMG properties, your selection will take effect only on this browser, this device and this website.

Social Media Cookies

We also use cookies to personalize your experience on our websites, including by determining the most relevant content and advertisements to show you, and to monitor site traffic and performance, so that we may improve our websites and your experience. You may opt out of our use of such cookies (and the associated “sale” of your Personal Information) by using this toggle switch. You will still see some advertising, regardless of your selection. Because we do not track you across different devices, browsers and GEMG properties, your selection will take effect only on this browser, this device and this website.

Targeting Cookies

We also use cookies to personalize your experience on our websites, including by determining the most relevant content and advertisements to show you, and to monitor site traffic and performance, so that we may improve our websites and your experience. You may opt out of our use of such cookies (and the associated “sale” of your Personal Information) by using this toggle switch. You will still see some advertising, regardless of your selection. Because we do not track you across different devices, browsers and GEMG properties, your selection will take effect only on this browser, this device and this website.